Abstract
Analysis of the benefits of government modernization initiatives for airports or air traffic control are conducted using complex software models that simulate up to 60,000 flights per day. These flight-centric simulations do not model passenger flows and therefore do not account for passenger trip delays due to cancelled flights and missed connections, which account for up to 60% of the total passenger trip delays. This paper describes a closed-form model for estimating passenger trip reliability metrics from flight delay data from system-wide simulations. The outputs of the model, (i) percent passengers disrupted, (ii) average passenger trip delay, and (iii) total passenger trip delays, are derived from the probability of delayed flights and network structure parameters. The model highlights the role of network structure, in addition to flight on-time performance, on passenger trip reliability. These results have implications for government and industry initiatives to improve flight on-time performance through modernization, consumer protection, and the conduct of benefits analysis.
Highlights
The airlines provide a critical service to the U.S economy, providing rapid, safe, and affordable inter-city transportation
This paper describes the derivation of a set of equations for estimating all three metrics for passenger trip reliability from flight on-time performance generated by National Airspace System (NAS)-wide simulations
The model accounts for passenger trip delays due to cancelled flight and missed connections, in addition to flight delays
Summary
The airlines provide a critical service to the U.S economy, providing rapid, safe, and affordable inter-city transportation. These NAS-wide Simulations, such as SWAC (Post, 2011), NASPAC (Millner, 1993), LMINet (Long et al, 1999), FACET (Bilmoria, et, al., 2000), ACES (Sweet et al.2002), and PNP (Ramamoorthy et al.,2006), provide decision-makers estimates of the benefits derived from the modernization initiatives in the form of flights delays, distance travelled, and airspace utilization These parameters translate into reduced costs of operation to airlines, reduced ANSP workload and staffing, increased safety margins, and reductions in emissions and noise. To provide a full accounting of the impact of the benefits of modernization initiatives using NAS simulations, the flight performance data must be converted to passenger trip delay data This conversion should take into account cancelled flights and missed connections, as well as the effects of the structure of the network. Each passenger itinerary is uniquely classified by an itinerary status: on-time, delayed, rebooked due to missed connection, rebooked due to cancellation, and diverted
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