A Comparative Study of Data Mining Methods for Solar Radiation and Temperature Forecasting Models

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) energy systems are a leading type of renewable energy systems globally. Predicting PV energy production accurately is crucial for maintaining efficient energy grids, making informed decisions in the energy market, and reducing maintenance costs. To ensure high accuracy and optimal production, it is essential to monitor and analyze these variables regularly. Solar radiation and temperature are two meteorological variables that directly affect the quantity of PV energy generated in PV facilities. The Performance Ratio (PR) is a critical parameter for assessing PV plant performance. A comprehensive model was constructed in this study to forecast solar radiation and temperature using multiple machine learning methods, including Instance-Based K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm (IBK), Linear Regression, Random Forests, Random Tree, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and MLP Regression. Moreover, we used time series approaches, such as Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES), Error-Trend-Seasonality (ETS), Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winter's Seasonal Method (HWES) models for PV systems prediction. Initially, we conducted daily forecasts as well as 1-step ahead forecasts at 5-minute intervals for both solar radiation and temperature. It is crucial to subject both variables to the same methodology in order to construct precise models for forecasting PV. Secondly, we compared the predicted values of solar radiation and temperature with the actual energy yield of the power plant to calculate energy production. Subsequently, a relative analysis of data mining models and time series models have been performed depending on the statistical error criteria like RMSE, MAPE, MABE, MAE, MSE, and direction accuracy (DAC).