Perspectives of photovoltaic energy market development in the european union

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) energy has recently been gaining much attention worldwide. It is the least expensive energy source which can be used to replace part of the energy from fossil fuels. The European Union (EU) published the European Green Deal in 2019 with the aim of achieving climate neutrality. The PV solar energy market has gained technological maturity and can help to achieve these climate targets. This article provides an analysis of PV energy usage in the EU by comparing the consumption of PV energy in EU countries. The study is important because there has been a shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The PV energy is getting more interest worldwide as a source of clean and cheap energy. The data were then analyzed for the world, the EU, and the USA. The main sources of information were the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT) data and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) data. Extended methods were used to check the processes in PVs and a multi-step procedure was conducted. The first step was to check the stationarity of the process by using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test), which involved testing two hypotheses. The first hypothesis was that the process of PV capacity is stationary, and the second hypothesis was that the time series process is not stationary. In the second step, descriptive statistics were used to analyze the changes in PV consumption in EU countries. In the third step, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was created in which one-dimensional autoregression models and a moving average for forecasting were calculated for each EU country. Finally, the procedure was supplemented with additional information for a prognosis. This research demonstrated a huge increase in the development of PVs in EU countries. All countries of the EU increased their PV capacity from 2000 to 20. The largest PV producers are Germany, Italy, and Spain, and the smallest are Latvia, Bulgaria, and Lithuania. The key policy implications are as follows: the European Union (EU) should finance the changes in the energy sector to a greater extent. Moreover, the PV development in the EU will be dependent on the climate and energy policies. The development of PV will depend on the actions of not only the EU but also global markets players such as China and the USA.