Abstract
Background: COVID-19 has claimed the lives of millions of people in Nigeria and around the world during the last two years. It is a recognized global health crisis of our day, as well as a persistent threat to the earth. The goal of this study was to examine the trend and fit an Error Trend and Seasonal (ETS) exponential smoothing and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to Nigeria's COVID-19 daily fatalities.Methods: A dataset of daily COVID-19 confirmed fatality cases was used in the investigation. Data was acquired from the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) web database between the 10th of July 2020 and the 2nd of December 2021. The ARIMA model and twelve (12) ETS exponential smoothing techniques were investigated using a dataset of COVID-19 pandemic deaths in Nigeria. The ARIMA and ETS exponential smoothing algorithms were evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Hannan Quinn Information Criterion (HQC), and Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE) selection criteria.Result: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model was the best time series modeling for the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Nigeria since it had the lowest AIC=2863.51, BIC=2866.90, HQ = 2866.90, and AMSE = 0.55471 values.Conclusion: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model is preferred above the other thirteen (13) competing models based on daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths in Nigeria. This research would assist the Nigerian government in better understanding the pestilence's evolution pattern and providing adequate provisions, prompt mediation, and treatment to prevent additional deaths caused by the virus.
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