A Coherent Theory of Coercion? The Writings of Robert Pape

Abstract

When do coercive tools, like air power and economic sanctions, work? Robert Pape argues that coercive strategies that depend upon the punishment of civilians—whether they are executed by strategic bombing or economic sanctions—do not work and will never work. He argues that only denial/interdiction strategies—those that disrupt the enemy's military strategy—will be able to coerce states. This review essay examines the majority of Pape’s writings to see if he successfully defends his dismissal of punishment strategies, and provides policymakers with a theory of coercion. Upon close examination, there are two flaws with Pape's work: (1) he holds punishment strategies to a higher standard of success than denial strategies; and (2) he confuses effectiveness with utility.