How to benefit from the risk assessment process: Analyzing the threats that pose a threat to the national security of the state

Abstract

This essay focuses on the recent evolution of national security assessments (NSAs) and national security strategies (NSSs) and evaluates how best to make use of them. While accepting that NSAs are a fairly novel development that indicates more joined-up thinking at the government level, they remain limited for two primary reasons. First, they have tended to be laden with cognitive bias, often reflecting near-term security interests and short-term thinking. Second, there is often a range of implementation problems related to moving from the assessment of risk to the realization of effective security policy. As such, truly benefitting from these risk assessments requires that policymakers counter cognitive biases and develop policy processes that are able to move from the identification of threats to a policy response.