조선업 경기 변동이 울산아파트 매매가격에 미치는 영향 분석 연구*

Abstract

This study analyzes apartment sales prices in Ulsan, the industrial city where many people lost a job from the recession of the shipbuilding industry. The ripple effect of an impact response function was analyzed with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to find the factors like the demographical change for the last few years that influence the apartment price decrease. The apartment sales and Jeonse(lease) price index, the population, the unemployment rate, etc. were used as variables, together with the nationwide shipbuilding industry index. For analysis, monthly data were collected from August 2009 to July 2019. The findings are; unique characteristics like apartment sales and Jeonse price had major impacts. The population and the shipbuilding industry index had a positive (+) effect while the unemployment rate after Term 2 had a negative (–) effect. The finding shows the vicious circle in Ulsan; the recession in the shipbuilding industry caused the unemployment rate to increase, which resulted in the population reduction and eventually made the apartment sales price to drop. The present study may provide useful information that could help to establish a basic urban plan and a master residence plan, considering the changing industrial structure and aging of Ulsan.