An Analysis of Factors Influencing the Formation of Apartment Sale Price in Changwon City - Focused on the influence of unsold apartments -

Abstract

This study is time series analysis to investigate the factors affecting the formation of apartment sale price in Changwon city centered on unsold apartments. The VEC (2) model of the vector error correction model (VECM), a dynamic method of time series analysis, was used to understand the response and impact of the shock. The results of this study are as follows. Changwon apartment sales price is the most influential variables Changwon Unsoldment and Changwon apartment chonsei price. After the financial crisis, the apartment sales market was not affected by the fundamentals, and the effects of unsold housing and chonsei prices became more important than macroeconomic variables. The increase in Changwon s unsold housing units is attributable to a decline in demand, compared to an increase in supply. As a result, apartment prices seem to have fallen. In order to control the supply appropriately, it is important to control the supply amount (housing construction permit) through the role of Changwon City s control tower and to establish standards for it. In addition, in order to increase demand, it is possible to stabilize the housing market through financial policy and tax policy for short-term activation of trading and the effect of attractiveness through commercial facility development. In addition, Seoul and the provinces are bipolarized, and it is necessary to make policy decisions according to regional situation.