The Effects of Sentiment on Real Estate Price Using Time Series Analysis

Abstract

In recent years, real estate prices in Seoul have risen sharply and this phenomenon has not been adequately explained by existing theories. This study will examine the effect of people's sentiment on real estate prices. The variables of real estate price are based on the National Apartment Sale Price Index and the Seoul Apartment Sale Price Index of Korea Appraisal Board. And the variable of sentimental value is based on the real estate market sentiment index of the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs. Other economic and social variables include interest rates and stock price indexes, and their effects on long and short term to apartment price index. The cointegration test is used to examine long-term effects and the vector error correction model is used to see the short-term effects. Empirical results show that consumer sentiment affects the whole country and Seoul in the long run. In addition, it affects Seoul only in the short term. Moreover, sentimental variables are affected by Seoul apartment price index in the short term. In other words, the sentiment affects property prices in short and long term, and the relationship between sentimental variables and Seoul apartment price index is self - reinforcing. This implies a possibility of a bubble in the increasing price of the Seoul real estate market.