ЗАГРОЗИ ЕКОНОМІЧНІЙ БЕЗПЕЦІ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВОЄННОГО СТАНУ

Abstract

The article identifies and systematises the main threats to Ukraine’s economic security under martial law and in terms of its components. The study used such scientific methods as analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, generalisation and comparison, graphical and tabular methods, etc. It is substantiated that when considering threats to economic security in wartime, it is advisable to distinguish between internal and external sources of their origin. Internal threats are triggered by crises within the country and can be publicly managed and eliminated. External threats are caused by processes over which the country has no leverage, but can only adapt and minimise the negative consequences. The author confirms the exhaustiveness of the decomposition of the country’s economic security by components, as well as its sufficiency for identifying and systematising relevant wartime threats. The analysis systematises the external and internal threats under martial law to the production, demographic, energy, foreign economic, investment and innovation, macroeconomic, food, social and financial components of Ukraine’s economic security. It is proved that in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the occupation of 18% of the territory (with the overwhelming concentration of industrial and agricultural production), the first year of the large-scale invasion and, accordingly, martial law was a period of the deepest macroeconomic decline in the history of independent Ukraine. The greatest threats to Ukraine’s economic security are identified as follows: physical destruction of the population; forced internal emigration with the status of internally displaced person and external emigration with the status of refugee; kidnapping of Ukrainian children to the territory of the aggressor country as a crime against humanity; unprecedented destruction of energy infrastructure; a passive balance of payments; stagflation as an economic phenomenon when there is a simultaneous economic downturn, rising inflation and rising unemployment; denunciation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative; deterioration in the welfare of citizens; growth of public debt to over 60% of GDP, etc.