Модели оценки риска с функционально различающимися воздействиями на природно-технические системы

Abstract

Introduction. The complex combination of natural and technogenic factors that lead to dangerous threats to the health and life of the population, as well as to material values, creates a need to develop special mathematical models for risk assessment in the relevant territories. Herewith it is important to take into account the significant differences between these factors. The new areas of research are models that describe natural and technogenic risks using differential equations that reflect different types of functions. The article presents the development of this research area. Goals and objectives. The goal of the article is to create a model for risk assessment in natural and technical systems (PTS), based on taking into account the influences of different natural and technogenic factors on them. Objectives include justification, construction and practical implementation of the mathematical model of risk assessment in the form of differential equations system. Methods include interpretation of the considered influences on PTS in terms of risks and assessment of the dynamic interaction of natural and technogenic factors in the form of inhomogeneous differential equations. Results and discussion. Solutions for models of assessing complex natural and technogenic risks in relation to two cases that differ in NTS are found: functionally different external natural and technogenic influences on PTS, which are understood as their type, in which the effects of both natural and technogenic factors are described by different mathematical functions. Conclusions. The first model considers parabolic (reflecting threats whose intensity gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of influences (reflecting sudden threats). The second model considers parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which decreases sharply over time) types of influences. It is concluded that it is necessary to create a special computer album of complex influences on the PTS in order to prevent "replay" of various situations and develop the most effective response to emerging dangers from the EMERCOM units and other structures. Key words: model, assessment, natural and technogenic risks, functionally different influences, counteraction, EMERCOM units.