Моделирование динамики природных и техногенных рисков

Abstract

A general view of the model of risk assessment in the natural-technogenic system (NTS), considering the effects of natural and technogenic factors, is considered. The general solution of the system of differential equations describing the model is found. Two examples of the application of the model for the case of functionally similar natural and technogenic impacts are analyzed: (i) linear effects resulting in catastrophic seismic events; (ii) parabolic impacts that lead to creep, karst-deformation, subsidence and landslide processes. In addition, two new models of the dynamics of risks arising in a TCP under the influence of dangerous natural and technogenic factors are described. The presented models differ from each other in the types of effects: in the first model, they consider jointly parabolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of effects (reflecting suddenly arising threats), in the second model, the analysis of such types of impacts as parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats whose intensity decreases sharply over time) is carried out. It is concluded that, on the basis of the considered models, it is possible to accurately describe almost any type of combined natural and technological impact and also make a special “atlas” of complex effects on the NTS for preventive “playing” of various situations and developing effective counteraction to emerging dangers from the departments of the Ministry of Emergencies and other structures.