ОНТОЛОГИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВАНИЯ КЛАССИФИКАЦИИ ИСТОРИЧЕСКИХ ЦИКЛОВ

Abstract

The author of the article considers the possibility of building a theory of cycles by referring to the method of ontological modeling, which goes back to the models of being that were popular in the cultures of the ancient world. Many of them have 8–10 elements, but there are also those with 30/32, 45 and 64 elements, etc. In modern methodology, a comparable volume of cycles takes place only in the concept of large economic cycles of Kondratiev lasting from 47 to 60 years. The object of analysis is the geopolitical processes of the 19th–21st centuries. The subject of analysis is the final stages of macrocycles of historical development. The purpose of this work is to establish the general patterns of development and self-organization in historical processes by means of humanitarian research. The lower limit of long cycles is interpreted in the present application with respect to the 45-element ontological model of the world order in the Indian Vastu Vidya. On this basis, a 90-year geopolitical cycle is formed, limiting the element of wars. The internal dynamics of the development of participants in geopolitical interactions is described within the framework of a 32-year cycle, correlated with the first half of the 64-element cycle of the Chinese "Book of Changes", which describes the cycle of cognitive activity. Going beyond this cycle by adding another 8 stages leads to a 72-year cycle of radical change in self-identification and political course. Based on the results of the study, the author concludes about the prospects of the method of ontological modeling for the analysis of historical processes and the determination of future development.