ПРОДОВОЛЬЧА БЕЗПЕКА УКРАЇНИ: ВЕКТОР РОЗВИТКУ

Abstract

The integration of Ukraine into the global economy actualizes the problem of food security at the national level. Its support in a certain way depends on the vector of development of the grain market, which provides the population with the most mass food products and livestock with feed. The analysis of factors affecting the global imbalance between supply and consumption of grain is carried out. The basic indicators include: the lag in the rate of grain production from the rate of the population growth in the world and an increase in grain consumption in animal husbandry. These factors determine sustained increased demand for crops and affect the growth of the FAO price index. Under such conditions, Ukraine, as a leading grain exporter, plays a key role in stabilizing the world food security. To determine the impact of the development of the national grain market on food security, a number of indicators are identified: (i) the percentage of consumption of animal products in the human daily energy diet; (ii) providing the human diet with the main types of products that are based on processed grain or the production of which is related to its consumption; (iii) differentiation of the cost of nutrition of the population by social groups for these products; (iv) average per capita grain production. Based on the analysis of the calculated values of the food security indicators, it was found that the status of the domestic grain market corresponds to the “hungry export” vector, which is characterized by an increase in grain exports due not only to an increase in its gross harvest, but also to a decrease in grain consumption both in the grain processing industry and in animal husbandry. Based on a comparative analysis of the foreign economic activity of the flour-milling industry of Ukraine and Turkey, it is concluded that the latter, as the leader in the world flour market, produces it from Ukrainian grain. With this in mind, measures are proposed for the government stimulation of the foreign economic activity of the flour-milling industry.