JUSTIFICATION OF PERIODIZATION AND STRATEGIC FORECASTS OF GRAIN MARKET IN RUSSIA

Abstract

The article defines historical and economic justification of changes grain market. Five stages of development of the Russian grain market have been identified, which differ from each other in strategic approaches to ensuring and protecting the domestic market, converting the grain sub-complex into a strategically significant element of the agro-industrial complex of the country and its national economy as a whole. Unlike the existing methods the method of complex assessment of transformation processes presented in the article takes into account the resulting values of saturation with mass commodities, sustainability of development of industries , which are a part of the grain product sub-complex of the agro-industrial complex, the degree of adaptability of the response to market changes, expansion of supply and demand potentials, establishment of fair equilibrium prices for grain. This allowed to assess the systematic basis of the real situation of the grain market of Russia more objectively and to justify the qualitative state of the grain market at a long time interval, to determine the potential of its strategic development in the future. The current position of the grain market of Russia is characterized by twofold excess of grain supply over the total demand for it. Despite such positions, the author 's methodology made it possible to conclude that there are reserves for increasing its volumes and sizes and to achieve this, structural transformations should be carried out within the grain product sub-complex in terms of increasing the share of production and export of grain processing products with high added value and increasing the volume of products traded at high prices. The primary objective in the development of the grain market is to increase the volume and efficiency of grain production. In addition, infrastructure facilities for grain storage and transportation should be modernized, and their additional capacities should be put into operation. The author describes the forecast parameters of the development of the grain market of Russia, on the basis of which the need for related industries of grain product sub-complex is established.