ПРОДУКТИВНОСТЬ ЗЕРНОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА В РОССИИ: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess and predict the factors of productivity of Russian grain production in the context of the ongoing territorial and sectoral structural changes. The research methodology includes a retrospective assessment of the production of major grain crops in the key grain-producing zones of the country. The identification of tendencies and trends was carried out using the methods of nonlinear dynamics. The time period of the study covers 1990-2020. Calculations show that, in Russia as a whole, by 2030 there will be a stable growth in the values of the yields of grain and leguminous crops. The maximum growth rate will be demonstrated by rye (1.9 times more than the average), buckwheat (1.5) and corn (1.3). Wheat and barley yields will grow at the average level. A significant part of the structure of grain production with growth trends will be wheat (winter and spring), as well as barley and corn for grain. The following federal districts will be the leading regions of Russia in grain production: Southern, Central, Povolzhsky, Siberian, North Caucasian. Russia has a enough margin of stability in the productivity of grain production. The growth trends of the main indicators of the productivity of grain production in Russia will continue: the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops due to the factors of intensification of production has a reserve of 10.4 - 25.7 million tons in excess of the officially planned indicators by 2030. The extensive option of grain production (expansion of the sown area while maintaining the global growth rates of yield) is additionally estimated at 24.5 - 42.6 million tons of the planned values of strategic documents. An increase in demand for grain in the world market will lead to the strengthening of wheat in the structure of grain production in Russia, a sharp increase in specialized zones for the production of corn for grain