ПОДХОДЫ К ОСУЩЕСТВЛЕНИЮ РИСК-МЕНЕДЖМЕНТА В УСЛОВИЯХ НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОЙ И ТУРБУЛЕНТНОЙ ВНЕШНЕЙ СРЕДЫ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ ЗЕРНОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА)

Abstract

In the modern Russian socio-economic system, there is an objective increase in uncertainty and turbulence, which requires adequate management responses. In connection with the sanctions pressure, in agriculture the strategy of reducing the risks of import dependence is becoming a stimulating factor for development. The study was conducted on the example of grain production development, which has some specifics from the standpoint of management and, in particular, risk management. The purpose of the study is to generalize approaches to risk management in an uncertain and turbulent external environment and to develop on this basis a risk distribution scheme between management entities in the risk management system adapted to the specifics of grain production. It is shown that the increase in the values of economic indicators of grain production is influenced by natural and climatic conditions, they determine the quality of grain products, costs and the complex of applied agrotechnological measures. In addition to the observed "standard" variability of natural and climatic conditions, the study also identifies extreme risk events that require forecasting and consideration when managing grain production. Also, risks in the considered sphere are caused by diversity and interdependence of such factors as natural and climatic, soil, technological, economic, social, legal, etc. In their mutual interweaving, these factors determine annual fluctuations of economic indicators (yield, gross harvest, sown area) in grain production in Russia. As a result of the study, it was established that risk management procedures in the sphere of grain production should be carried out according to the hierarchical principle with the allocation of at least two levels: the coordinating level - the executive level. Based on this idea, an industry structural and functional model of risk management at various levels of decision-making has been developed. This model has the property of dualism: some levels are simultaneously coordinating, offering strategic solutions to lower levels, and executive - for higher structures. Implementation of the developed model in the practice of risk management in grain production will increase its sustainability and predictability.