ПРИМЕНЕНИЕ МЕТОДОВ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ В ЗАКУПОЧНОЙ ЛОГИСТИКЕ ТОРГОВЫХ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЙ

Abstract

The article authors consider the possibilities of using various methods for forecasting the volume of sales, based on logistical principles, in relation to the activities of automobile dealer enterprises. The golden rule of logistics forms the basis for the logistics process behavior and is implies the supply of products in the right quantity and quality, and on time. The task of sales forecasting is to anticipate the demand parameters to plan the future activities of the enterprise. Thus, sales forecasting underlies the logistics activities of the enterprise. The effectiveness of the implementation of almost all logistics functions directly depends on the accuracy and reliability of the consumer demand forecasts. At the same time, the specifics of the activity of the enterprise in question – a car dealer – imposes certain restrictions on the possibilities of sales forecasting. In particular, the need to take into account market trends, the availability of quotas for the manufacturer, and taking into consideration the demand for the assortment on the part of consumers lead to the need to adjust the methods used for sales forecasting. The authors of the article have reviewed the forecasting methods used in logistics and highlighted the methods that can be used by car dealers to determine the volume of sales in subsequent periods. The sequence of using forecasting methods forms an algorithm for sales volume forecasting. Approbation of the methodology and algorithm for sales volume forecasting has been carried out on the example of a particular enterprise and can be used by similar enterprises in their activities.