Abstract
PURPOSE. The article presents various methods of drought evaluation, considers the trends of climate variability for the last 70 years that affect the frequency of droughts in the Irkutsk region. METHODS. The data on the yield of wheat as the main grain crop are used to evaluate the probability of droughts. Three groups including random samples, sequences with autocorrelation links and trends are distinguished based on the results of the statistical analysis of the long-term series of wheat bioproductivity. RESULTS. The proposed algorithms allowed to determine the statistical parameters of wheat yield series taking into account their specific features. Having obtained the probabilities of drought occurrence, we distinguished five groups of municipal districts. Based on the proposed methodology of extreme weather event probability estimation, the values of severe drought frequency in 2015 were calculated as well as the damages and possible insurance reimbursements. CONCLUSIONS. It is proposed to use the probabilistic models of drought frequency with the purpose to improve the planning of food production in different natural and climatic areas.
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