ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ СТРУКТУРИ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОГО БАЛАНСУ УКРАЇНИ: ПИТОМА ВАГА ВІДНОВЛЮВАНИХ ДЖЕРЕЛ ЕНЕРГІЇ

Abstract

Strategic importance in the formation of national security is the development of a model of efficient use of resources. Energy security and independence of the country is formed due to economically sound and optimized fuel and energy policy, which is aimed at environmentally safe and economically acceptable needs of the population and the state as a whole. The instability of fossil fuel pricing policy, as well as political inconsistencies between neighboring countries (Belarus, Russia) lead to a more careful approach to the formation and optimization of the structure of Ukraine's energy balance. Given the recent trends of carbon-neutral development of the national economy, the country has chosen the vector of transformation of the energy system by increasing the share in the structure of the energy balance of renewable energy sources and improving the energy efficiency of the national economy. There is a need to develop an effective plan for the transition of the energy system to energy-independent energy sources, taking into account key aspects of the recently adopted European Green Agreement. At the same time, the main goal remains to reduce the negative burden on the environment through sustainable development of the country, to prevent global warming. The aim of the article is to forecast the dynamics of the structure of Ukraine's energy balance by 2035 by types of renewable energy sources. To achieve this goal, the tools of scenario forecasting of the Brown model were used in the work. The object of the study is the energy balance of Ukraine in the period from 2000 to 2020. The sources of statistical information were the statistical databases of the World Bank and Ukrstat. The results of scenario forecasting by types of renewable energy sources helped to draw a conclusion about the prospects for the development of renewable energy in the structure of Ukraine's energy balance. Taking into account the results of the study, a number of recommendations were made to optimize the structure of Ukraine's energy balance through renewable energy sources and certain institutional, investment and policy measures.