Современная демографическая ситуация Забайкальского края: динамика и направленность основных показателей

Abstract

Relevance. The conflict, which has become especially acute in recent years, associated with the growing contradictions between regional demographic problems and the objective needs for population reproduction, actualizes the problem of identifying and analyzing demographic events affecting the population, which is extremely important in the light of the strategic directions of the Transbaikal Territory development. The object of the study is the current demographic situation of the Transbaikal Territory, the subject is the dynamics and orientation of the main indicators characterizing the demographic situation. The purpose of the study is to identify and assess the dynamics and direction of the main indicators characterizing the demographic situation of the Transbaikal Territory. The task is to determine the direction of changes in the main demographic indicators for the period 2018-2020, characterizing the demographic situation of the Transbaikal Territory. The methodological basis of the research is a systematic approach as a set of general scientific methodological principles, which are based on the consideration of objects as a system, as well as a structural and functional approach based on the allocation of their structure in integral systems. The solution of the problem was carried out on the basis of the use of general logical methods: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction. Results. Based on a comparative analysis of the period 2018-2020 and partially 2021 with the use statistical data, the trend of a significant natural decline in the population of the Transbaikal Territory, associated with childbirth due to the annual loss of women of the main reproductive cohorts, was revealed; a sharp increase in the marriage/divorce ratio to 88.1% is significantly lower than the maximum critical value (2.15) of the total fertility rate adopted in world practice to assess the sustainability of population reproduction. The forecast for 2021 of the natural decline of the population of the Transbaikal Territory is given, mainly more than 3 thousand people. The epidemic contribution to the mortality of the population in 2020 is estimated and the first half of 2021. It is shown that migration for the population of the Transbaikal Territory is unprofitable, an alarming fact is the decline of the working – age population-about 10 thousand people in three years. It is established that foreign labour migration does not have any noticeable quantitative impact on the population of the Transbaikal Territory and only simplifies its qualitative structure, strengthening the component, primarily focused on low-productivity physical labour