ИМИТАЦИОННЫЕ МОДЕЛИ В ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯХ ПЕРСПЕКТИВ РАЗВИТИЯ УГОЛЬНОЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОСТИ ВОСТОЧНЫХ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ

Abstract

When studying the development prospects of coal-mining regions, the use of a computational experiment is rather labor-intensive, moreover, it is difficult to formalize. This is due to the features of coal industry as an object of research. The article presents the simulation models constructed at Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS in order to study the development prospects of Russian coal industry as a whole and the eastern regions of Russia in particular. The models are implemented in the framework of the information and model complex (IMPC) Coal. PURPOSE. The purpose of the paper is to consider the possibility of implementing the simulation models in order to study the development prospects of the coal industry. MATERIAL AND METHODS. The study uses the methods of system analysis, evaluation of investment projects, decision-making under conditions of uncertainty. Official statistical data and forecasts of regional economy development are used for model verification. RESULTS. The paper presents the simulation models being implemented including the models designed to evaluate investment projects of enterprises and groups of enterprises and 3 types of balance models. The models can be used independently or together with optimization production and transport models. CONCLUSION. The complex structure of the research object, the complexity of formalizing the dependencies of coal industry development indices on individual, most significant factors, the prevailing role of an expert in research do not allow to use the computer models with the fixed input and output. Simulation modeling is an effective tool for studying coal industry development prospects in the regions of Russia. The repeated computer experiment on the basis of the presented models has proved the rationality and feasibility of their use.