ОЦІНКА БАГАТОРІЧНОЇ МІНЛИВОСТІ СЕРЕДНЬОГО РІЧНОГО СТОКУ ВОДИ РІЧОК БАСЕЙНУ ПРИП’ЯТІ В МЕЖАХ УКРАЇНИ ТА ЙОГО РОЗРАХУНКОВІ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ У ФАЗИ ВОДНОСТІ

Abstract

The aim of the study was to analyze the long-term variability of the average annual water runoff of the rivers of the Pripyat basin within Ukraine and to assess its calculated characteristics in the high-water and low-water phases of water content.The research of the cyclical nature of long-term fluctuations of river water flow, which contributes to the establishment of long-term dynamics of water content and potential (forecast) changes – is a topical issue of modern hydrological research. To describe the long-term variability of river water flow and its structure (cycles and phases of water content) the most effective method is stochastic, based on mathematical statistics, the theory of random variables and functions, probability theory. Autocorrelation analysis, various statistical criteria (homogeneity, series, series lengths), total and difference integral curves, probability theory, correlations, statistical estimation of probable errors, etc. were used to identify stochastic regularities of long-term variability. According to the results of the study of long-term variability of the average annual water runoff of the rivers of the Pripyat basin within Ukraine, it is established that cycles with periods of 29±2 years have high reliability and indicate stability of periods of low (10±2 years) and high water content. 17±2 years). According to the identified stochastic patterns, it is assumed that by 2025-26 it is necessary to expect the continuation of the low-water phase of water, then with the duration of 16-17 years the high-water phase will begin and from 2044-45 there will be low water again until 2055-56. According to the proposed regression equations between the average annual water discharge for a long-term period and their average values during the high-water and low-water phases of water content (with very significant approximation coefficients) and the obtained transition coefficients, it is possible to establish the calculated characteristics of the average annual flow of water of various availability in the high-water and low-water phases of water content, thereby giving their forecast estimates.