КЛИМАТИЧЕСКИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК НА РЕКАХ РЕСПУБЛИКИ САХА (ЯКУТИЯ)

Abstract

The paper deals with long-term series of different hydrological characteristics (average annual water discharges, maximum discharges throughout the year, maximum discharges during spring floods and rain floods, spring flood runoff layers, minimum summer and winter water discharges) on the rivers of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and their approximation by models of the non-stationary average (the linear trend and the stepwise change model). It has been found that there are practically no effective non-stationary models for the maximum water discharges, but there are such models for flood layers and for average annual and minimum water discharges, which increased mainly in the late 20th and early 21st centuries due to the possible additional inflow of water from the thawed permafrost. The number of effective non-stationary average models increases from 30% of all cases for flood layers to 50–60% for average annual and minimum summer water discharges, and almost to 100% for minimum winter water discharges. Estimation of the stationarity of the mean values and variances by statistical criteria when dividing the series of stepwise changes by year confirmed the nonstationarity of the mean values for all a priori established nonstationary models and, in some cases, the nonstationarity of the variances. The largest increase in average values up to 100% takes place in the minimum winter water discharges, up to 70–80% – in the minimum summer water discharges, and up to 40–50% – in the average annual water discharges; a change in average values up to 20% cannot be considered statistically significant and reliably determined. Relative to natural variability, the excess is up to 1.5–1.6 standard deviation, but no more. Spatial distributions of the increase in river runoff characteristics in % relative to the previous stationary period and to natural variability are constructed. The greatest increase in the minimum winter water discharge takes place in the northern part of Yakutia. In recent years, water discharges have been observed even on freezing rivers. For the minimum summer and average annual water discharges, the largest increase occurs in the northeast and east.