Convergence Zone Research Articles

Impacts of tropical cyclones on the global water budget

Tropical cyclones (TCs) require substantial amounts of moisture for their genesis and development, acting as important moisture drivers from the ocean to land and from tropical to subtropical and extratropical regions. Quantifying anomalous moisture transport related to TCs is crucial for understanding long-term TC-induced changes in the global hydrological cycle. Our results highlight that, in terms of the global water budget, TCs enhance moisture transport from evaporative regions and precipitation over sink regions, leading to predominantly anomalous positive surface freshwater flux areas over the tropics and more regionally concentrated negative areas over the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Furthermore, we detected seasonal variability in the impact of TC on the hydrological cycle, which is closely related to the annual and seasonal TC frequency. Our analysis also revealed a global statistically significant drop (~40 mm year−1) in TC-induced surface freshwater fluxes from 1980 to 2018 in response to the increasing sea surface temperature and slightly decrease in global TC frequency and lifetime in the last two decades. These findings have important implications for predicting the impacts of TCs on the hydrological cycle under global warming conditions.

Modeling anisotropic friction in triaxial overbraiding simulations

Triaxial overbraiding is a highly intricate textile manufacturing process that involves interlacing yarns in three directions, enhancing reinforcement of the final composite compared to biaxial braids. Predictive process simulation is a cost-effective approach to optimizing the manufacturing process. Previous research on biaxial overbraiding simulations indicates that yarn-yarn friction has a significant effect on the braid angle and convergence zone length. This study presents an extended yarn interaction model; it utilizes a fast frontal approach and a Eulerian on Lagrangian method to simulate the complex interlacing of multiple yarns in triaxial overbraiding, including yarn-yarn and yarn-ring friction. Experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect of UD yarn tension on the convergence zone length and braid angle, and to validate the simulations. The model validation shows that a recently proposed anisotropic yarn-yarn friction model predicts braid angle more accurately than an isotropic friction model.

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over coastal sea and small islands in the eastern region of Sumatra including season and Madden Julian Oscillation signatures

The Barisan Mountains influence atmospheric circulation in Sumatra and surrounding areas. Yet, precipitation patterns in eastern Sumatra, especially along the coast, are poorly understood. This study examines diurnal precipitation cycles in coastal seas and small islands of eastern Sumatra, utilizing 2015–2021 IMERG Version 06 rainfall data, data from 21 island rain gauges, and ERA5 reanalysis data to assess precipitation through three parameters: precipitation amount (PA), precipitation frequency (PF), and precipitation intensity (PI). The diurnal cycle of PA and PF is more pronounced than PI. Distinct diurnal precipitation patterns emerge between coastal seas and small islands despite their shared east coast location on Sumatra. Coastal seas exhibit early morning precipitation peaks forming Sumatras squall, influenced by offshore Sumatra and Malay Peninsula propagations, accentuated by high wind speeds. Coastal shape, land topography, and Sumatra's island size also impact coastal sea precipitation. On small islands, rainfall peaks earlier (12:00–15:00 LT) with gentle winds, indicating local convection due to land heating dominance. In addition, the low-amplitude topography of Bangka and Belitung islands also increase rainfall, so PA and PF are higher on these islands than on other small islands. Seasonal analysis reveals rising PA and PF near the equator during the dry southeast monsoon (SEM), linked to the dominant Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Conversely, areas like Bangka, Belitung, and the South Coast of Sumatra, farther from the equator, witness higher PA and PF during the wet northwest monsoon (NWM). The South Coast of Sumatra saw a substantial PA increase during NWM, about 60% higher than the southeast dry period. Despite varying cycle amplitudes, peak times for PA and PF remain consistent across seasons. MJO analysis during NWM highlights heightened PA and PF amplitudes across eastern Sumatra, especially over equator-adjacent coastal regions and small islands, reaching 40–70% above non-active MJO phases. In summary, this research examines diurnal precipitation variations in coastal seas and small islands of eastern Sumatra, enhancing understanding of regional climate patterns and factors impacting precipitation cycles in the area.

Understanding the dependence of mean precipitation on convective treatment and horizontal resolution in tropical aquachannel experiments

Abstract. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a key circulation and precipitation feature in the tropics. There has been a large spread in the representation of the ITCZ in global weather and climate models for a long time, the reasons for which remain unclear. This paper presents a novel approach with which we disentangle different physical processes responsible for the changeable behavior of the ITCZ in numerical models. The diagnostic tool is based on a conceptual framework developed by Emanuel (2019) and allows for physically consistent estimates of convective mass flux and precipitation efficiency for simulations with explicit and parameterized convection. We apply our diagnostic tool to a set of tropical aquachannel experiments using the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model with horizontal grid spacings of 13 and 5 km and with various representations of deep and shallow convection. The channel length corresponds to the Earth's circumference and has rigid walls at 30∘ N/S. Zonally symmetric sea surface temperatures are prescribed. All experiments simulate an ITCZ at the Equator coinciding with the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation and descending branches at 15∘ N/S with subtropical jets and easterly trade wind belts straddling the ITCZ. With explicit deep convection, however, rainfall in the ITCZ increases and the Hadley circulation becomes stronger. Increasing horizontal resolution substantially reduces the rainfall maximum in the ITCZ, while the strength of the Hadley circulation changes only marginally. Our diagnostic framework reveals that boundary-layer quasi-equilibrium (BLQE) is a key to physically understanding those differences. At 13 km, enhanced surface enthalpy fluxes with explicit deep convection are balanced by increased convective downdrafts. As precipitation efficiency is hardly affected, convective updrafts and rainfall increase. The surface enthalpy fluxes are mainly controlled by mean surface winds, closely linked to the Hadley circulation. These links also help understand rainfall differences between different resolutions. At 5 km, the wind–surface-fluxes–convection relation holds, but additionally explicit convection dries the mid-troposphere, which increases the import of air with lower moist static energy into the boundary layer, thereby enhancing surface fluxes. Overall, the different model configurations create little variations in precipitation efficiency and radiative cooling, the effects of which are compensated for by changes in dry stability. The results highlight the utility of our diagnostic tool to pinpoint processes important for rainfall differences between models, suggesting applicability for climate model intercomparison projects.

The inner life of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone

AbstractThe Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a central component of the atmospheric general circulation, but remarkably little is known about the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the convergence zone itself. This is true even for the structure of the low‐level convergence that gives the ITCZ its name. Following on from the major international field campaigns in the 1960s and 1970s, we performed extensive atmospheric profiling of the Atlantic ITCZ during a ship‐based measurement campaign aboard the research vessel SONNE in summer 2021. Combining data collected during our north–south crossing of the ITCZ with reanalysis data shows the ITCZ to be a meridionally extended region of intense precipitation, with enhanced surface convergence at its edges rather than in the center. Based on the location of these edges, we construct a composite view of the structure of the Atlantic ITCZ. The ITCZ, far from being simply a region of enhanced deep convection, has a rich inner life, that is, a rich dynamical and thermodynamic structure that changes throughout the course of the year, and has a northern edge that differs systematically from the southern edge.

Rapid Climate Links Between High Northern Latitudes and Tropical Southeast Asia Over the Last 40 ka

AbstractThe climate response of tropical Southeast Asia to abrupt climate change originating from high northern latitudes remains poorly understood. Here, marine sediments recovered from the Northwest Borneo Trough are analyzed to trace variations in terrigenous material composition associated with sea level and palaeoflood activities over the past 40 ka. We describe for the first time the influence of sea level change on terrigenous deposition from a tropical island with small mountainous rivers surrounded by narrow continental shelves and the coupling between North Atlantic dynamics and climate feedbacks in tropical Southeast Asia during the Dansgaard‐Oeschger stadials. This study demonstrates that climate oscillations occurring at high northern latitudes can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia through the functions of sea level, the East Asian winter monsoon and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Such information is fundamental to correctly assessing future sea level rise and flood risks in tropical Southeast Asia.

Ice core evidence for an orbital-scale climate transition on the Northwest Tibetan Plateau

The influences on climate in the Northwest Tibetan Plateau (NwTP) have changed on millennial to precessional timescales and have been dependent on the size of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, and the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). All these influences control the position and intensity of the westerlies over Central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau and of the Asian Monsoon over South Asia. The top 187.4 m of a 309.7-m ice core (2015GP) drilled on the plateau of the Guliya ice cap contains a 41-kyr climate history of the NwTP, a region where information on past climate and environment is limited. The oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O), and ammonium (NH4+) and dust concentration records from 2015GP show that during the glacial (41–17.5 ka BP) temperature and precipitation in the NwTP were primarily influenced on the precessional timescale by summer insolation, while at millennial resolution the climate was linked to the North Atlantic temperature via the westerlies. During the deglaciation (17.5–12 ka BP) summer insolation remained an important temperature forcing, but the influence of the North Atlantic climate on the NwTP climate weakened as the westerlies shifted northward. The Guliya Holocene δ18O record shows that NwTP climate was no longer in phase with decreasing summer insolation or with North Atlantic climate, perhaps as the moisture source and pathways were more determinative factors in isotopic fractionation than temperature, and/or incoming solar radiation (insolation) forcing was replaced by rising greenhouse gas concentrations as the primary driver of warming in NwTP.

The link between intertropical convergence zone stagnation and bias in local shortwave cloud radiative forcing over tropical Africa in climate models

The northward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is a significant feature of the West African (WA) monsoon. An accurate simulation of ITCZ migration is essential for the realistic representation of WA precipitation in global coupled models. In this study, we employ the energetics and dynamics framework with a subset of CMIP6 models to investigate the bias in the simulated WA precipitation. Models were found to simulate more local positive (negative) shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCRF) in the Southeastern Atlantic Ocean (over the African continent). The effect of the excess local SWCRF is linked to the stagnation of the ITCZ latitudinal migration and the associated biases in the asymmetry index of precipitation. In the models, there is more (less) moist static energy in the lower (mid and upper) troposphere than in the reanalysis. The worst models have a stronger bias, especially over land. The vertical transport of moisture is confined to the boundary layer in the worst model ensemble. In most cases, the high-resolution coupled models show substantial northward migration of the ITCZ compared to the low-resolution models. Furthermore, the best-performing models capture local circulation and energetic processes more accurately than the worst-performing models.

Step-wise shifted rainbelt throughout the early last deglaciation

Millennial climate change since the last deglaciation have drawn much attention. Even though the role of northern hemisphere is much focused on, how the tropic performed remains disputed. Here based on Mg/Ca and δ18Osw local from planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber, sub-millennial scale hydroclimate record throughout the early last deglaciation is presented from the northern South China Sea, near the northern boundary of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Coupled with previous research, we speculate that rainbelt/ITCZ was located northerly from 19 to 18 ka, and migrated southward within two-steps during Heinrich 1 event. Northerly ITCZ during 19–18 ka was rendered by tropical warming since 19 ka through the Gill-Matsuno response, which strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, contributing to intense monsoon precipitation over east Asia, and dry conditions around the western Pacific. The subsequent two-steps ITCZ southward shift during Heinrich 1 was driven by weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, which was produced by the lowering northern hemisphere ice-sheet at ∼16.2 ka. Step-wise shifted rainbelt/ITCZ documented from our record indicates multiple factors dominated sub-millennial scale climate change during the whole last deglaciation. We highlight the important roles of tropical warming and ocean circulation in initiating the last deglaciation and the subsequent climate change, respectively.

Tracking and detecting sargassum pathways across the tropical Atlantic

Pelagic sargassum (S fluitans and S natans) algal blooms and beach landings have become a regular occurrence in the Tropical Atlantic Basin since 2011; they have a variety of impacts on the marine ecosystem and blue economy. To reduce the impacts and enable effective management, forecasting and monitoring of the blooms are essential. Challenges associated with use of satellite imagery for sargassum detection in the Tropical Atlantic are spatial resolution and cloud cover, which is particularly dense in this region due to the inter-tropical convergence zone, tropical storms and hurricanes. Successful models of forecasting and prediction of pelagic sargassum are hindered by unreliable satellite data, uncertainty around windage and as well as growth and mortality. In the longer term, we aim to improve the forecast models of pelagic sargassum mat movements in open oceans by introducing evidence of the speed of travel, changing mat morphology, and size and health status of sargassum mats. To achieve this, we deployed eight trackers on floating sargassum mats in the Western Tropical Atlantic. In addition, we explore the coincidence of surface currents, wind stress and sea surface temperature as a parameter for growth on the tracker pathways. When used in conjunction with both remote sensing methods and climate data (wind, current and sea temperature), we find that GPS tracker data can facilitate more reliable monitoring of sargassum transport pathways, helps to overcome satellite-based challenges as well as model based uncertainties, and may improve the accuracy and general utility of sargassum early warning systems.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Rainfall and Surface Salinity in the Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool: A Joint In Situ and Satellite Analysis During the SPURS‐2 Field Campaign

AbstractWe perform a statistical characterization of the 2016–2017 SPURS‐2 field campaign in situ data and coincident satellite data spanning 8°–12°N, 120°–130°W to quantify the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain and near‐surface salinity in the Eastern Pacific Fresh Pool. Observations of rain rate and near‐surface to surface salinity are obtained from ships, moorings, autonomous platforms, and satellite remote sensing: Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG); and Soil Moisture Active Passive (NASA SMAP L3 V5). The integral length and time scales of rain and near‐surface salinity vary seasonally. In the rainy season (August–October) when the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrates over the SPURS‐2 study site, the integral time scales of rain were about 30–60 min and those of near‐surface salinity were closer to that of the rain, 1–2 days, indicating forcing by rain. Meanwhile, the zonal integral length scale of in situ near‐surface salinity was twice as large as the meridional scale (50 vs. 20 km), consistent with the ITCZ's zonally‐propagating and ‐organized rain features. The magnitude and seasonal variation of the sea surface salinity integral time scale were not captured by SMAP since the rainy ITCZ‐period scales were smaller than SMAP resolution (70 km, 8‐day running mean). In the dry season (February–May), the in situ rain integral time scale reduced to less than 30 min while that of the near‐surface salinity increased to 1–5 days, the ocean mesoscale. IMERG overestimated the rain integral time scale by a factor of two to ten in both seasons.

Assessing Chemical and Mineralogical Properties of the Alpine Slab Based on Field Analogs and Ambient Noise Tomography

AbstractRecent geophysical campaigns in the Alps produce images with seismic property variations along the slab of sufficiently fine resolution to be interpreted as rock transformations. Since the reacting European lower crust is presumed responsible for the variations of velocities at the top of the Alpine slab, we sampled local analogs of the lower crustal lithologies in the field and modeled the evolution of equilibrium seismic properties during burial, along possible pressure‐temperature paths for the crustal portion of the slab. The results are then compared to the range of the S‐wave velocities obtained from the S‐wave velocity tomography model along the CIFALPS transect. The velocity increase from 25 to 45 km within the slab, in the tomographic model is best reproduced by the transformation of specific lithologies in the high‐pressure granulite facies along a collisional gradient (30°C/km). Although the crust is certainly not completely homogeneous, the best candidates for the rocks that make up the top of the Alpine dip crustal panel are a kinzigite from Monte San Petrone, a gneiss from the Insubric line, and blueschist mylonite from Canavese. While they may not represent the entirety of the crust, they are sufficient to explain the tomographic velocity of the Alpine slab. A lateral lithological contrast inherited from the Variscan orogeny is not required. Eclogitization, suggested as the first‐order transformation in convergence zones, could be a second‐order transformation in collisional wedges. These results also imply a partially re‐equilibrated thermal gradient, consistent with the Alpine thermal state data at depth.

A sequence of abrupt climatic fluctuations in the north-eastern Caribbean related to the 8.2 ka event

A speleothem collected from Palco Cave (Puerto Rico) spans the 8.2 ka event, a time interval associated with fluctuations of Atlantic Ocean circulation and possible drying in the Caribbean region. While stalagmite δ18O, δ13C, and Mg/Ca data do not show a sustained change in mean state over the 8.2 ka event, the proxies provide robust evidence for three abrupt fluctuations toward drier conditions in rapid succession, each lasting less than two decades, occurring at 8.20, 8.14, and 8.02 ka BP. A cave monitoring program at Palco Cave supports the interpretation of the speleothem proxy records. Because changes in the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are directly coupled to sea-surface temperature variations in the North Atlantic, we hypothesize that cold events in the North Atlantic temporarily limited the northward migration of the ITCZ and tropical rain belt in boreal summer during these abrupt drying periods. The speleothem record suggests that the 8.2 ka event was associated with rapid rainfall fluctuations in the northern Caribbean followed by a comparably warm and wet phase after the 8.2 ka event. This enhanced variability during the transitional period of the deglaciation appears to be linked to a fast coupling between interacting oceanic and atmospheric processes. This involves, in particular, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in modulating interhemispheric heat transport.

A North–South Dipole Response of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone During the Mid‐Holocene

AbstractThe South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) profoundly modulates precipitation from central to southeastern Brazil in the present‐day climate. However, the understanding of its long‐term behavior responding to various climate forcings remains limited. Here, we use an isotope‐enabled atmospheric general circulation model (ECHAM4.6) to examine the precipitation response of the SACZ during the mid‐Holocene about six thousand years ago. The model simulates a northward intensification of the SACZ in the mid‐Holocene, resulting in a dipole anomaly pattern relative to today's climate. The mid‐Holocene precipitation increased along the northern margin of the SACZ due to the strengthening of easterly winds across the tropical Atlantic, while an eastward deflection of the South American low‐level jet reduced moisture transport to southern Brazil, resulting in reduced precipitation along the southern margins of the SACZ. The north–south dipole response in precipitation is consistent with the mid‐Holocene hydroclimate change observed in proxy records from the region.

Rheology of hydrated plagioclase at lower crustal conditions: Cataclasis, creep and transformational plasticity

Plagioclase feldspar is one of the main rock-forming minerals of the lower continental crust. Assessing its rheology is therefore of particular importance for understanding the mechanical processes acting in convergence zones, where pressure and strain rate increases are often associated with metamorphic reactions and fluid fluxes. In this prospect, we performed axial shortening experiments on “as-is” (∼0.05 wt% H2O) and water-added (∼0.29 wt% H2O) natural plagioclase samples in a Griggs-type apparatus equipped with an acoustic emission monitoring system. Samples were deformed at ∼ 10−6 and ∼ 10−5 s−1, 700–800 °C, and 1.0 GPa in the plagioclase stability field. Experiments have also been performed at 1.5 GPa in order to study the rheological impact of the breakdown reaction Ca-rich plagioclase + water → zoisite + kyanite + quartz + Na-rich plagioclase. Mechanical data indicate that at the conditions studied, the rheology of plagioclase is strongly affected by water content. Microstructural observations confirm that under dry conditions, plagioclase aggregates deform by cataclastic flow. Under wet conditions, dislocation creep appears to be the dominant deformation mechanism, and plagioclase rheology is best described by the following equation, where strain rate, in s−1, is expressed as:ε·=Aσ3.0exp(−(168kJ/mol)/R/T), where σ is the stress in MPa, R is the gas constant, T is the temperature in K, and the pre-exponential term A=10−3.9MPa−3.0s−1. At 1.5 GPa, the reaction is faster under wet conditions but the rheology observed remains identical to that of wet plagioclase in its stability field. In the low water content experiments, plagioclase breakdown induces transient weakening due to fast zoisite nucleation and significant reaction volume change.

Effects of meteo-oceanographic conditions on the weathering processes of oil spills in northeastern Brazil

This paper presents the graphical results of the Lagrangian-model and the weathering processes associated with oil spills in the tropical South Atlantic, taking into account the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of the study region. The scenarios were created in the Brazilian-NE waters adjacent, with simulation times of 670 h, and densities of 35, 25, and 15API with volume of 1590 m3 were considered. The main results showed that the meteo-oceanographic characteristics of the study region influence the trajectories and weathering processes in the oil spill. The trajectories varied for each launch point and reached the continent severely in January and October. The associated weathering processes showed higher rates in September and lower rates in April, indicative of the influence of phenomena such as Intertropical Tropical Convergence Zone and warm pool in the South Atlantic region. Sea surface temperature and wind speed are key factors that correlate positively with these months.

Assessing the Fire-Modified Meteorology of the Grassland and Forest Intersection Zone in Mongolia Using the WRF-Fire Model

Climate change is already significantly affecting the frequency of wildfires in most regions of the world, and the risk of wildfires is expected to amplify further with global warming. Accordingly, there is growing concern about the mechanisms and impacts of extreme fires. In this study, a coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Rothermel Fire model (WRF-Fire) is employed to reproduce the spread of fire within the national boundary of inner Mongolia from 21 to 27 May 2009. Simulations were run with or without feedback from fire-to-atmosphere models, and the study focused on how the energy flux of simulated fires changes the local meteorological environment. The coupled simulation could reproduce the burned area well, and the wind speed was the dominant factor in the fire spread, with a maximum value no more than 6.4 m/s, when the terrain height changes little and the proportion of grassland is low. After the feedback, the propagation speed of the fire accelerated, accompanying the release of latent and sensible heat, and local circulation formed near the front of the fire, leading to a convergence and divergence zone in the downwind area. It is worth noting that during a period of more than 140 h of simulation, the area of the fire field increased by 17% from ignition time. Therefore, considering the fire–atmosphere interaction is necessary for accurately predicting fire behavior.

Model and proxy evidence for coordinated changes in the hydroclimate of distant regions over the Last Millennium

Abstract. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450–1850 CE) were periods generally characterized by respectively higher and lower temperatures in many regions. However, they have also been associated with drier and wetter conditions in areas around the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Asian Monsoon region and in areas impacted by large-scale climatic modes like the Northern Annular Mode and Southern Annular Mode (NAM and SAM respectively). To analyze coordinated changes in large-scale hydroclimate patterns and whether similar changes also extend to other periods of the Last Millennium (LM) outside the MCA and the LIA, reconstruction-based products have been analyzed. This includes the collection of tree-ring-based drought atlases (DAs), the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR). These analyses have shown coherent changes in the hydroclimate of tropical and extratropical regions, such as northern and central South America, East Africa, western North America, western Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the Indo-Pacific, during the MCA, the LIA and other periods of the LM. Comparisons with model simulations from the Community Earth System Model – Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) and phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) show that both external forcing and internal variability contributed to these changes, with the contribution of internal variability being particularly important in the Indo-Pacific basin and that of external forcing in the Atlantic basin. These results may help to identify not only those areas showing coordinated changes, but also those regions more impacted by the internal variability, where forced model simulations would not be expected to successfully reproduce the evolution of past actual hydroclimate changes.

Characterizing the tropospheric water vapor spatial variation and trend using 2007–2018 COSMIC radio occultation and ECMWF reanalysis data

Abstract. Atmospheric water vapor plays a crucial role in the global energy balance, hydrological cycle, and climate system. High-quality and consistent water vapor data from different sources are vital for weather prediction and climate research. This study assesses the consistency between the Formosa Satellite Mission 3–Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Model 5 (ERA5) water vapor datasets. Comparisons are made across different atmospheric pressure levels (300, 500, and 850 hPa) from 2007 to 2018. Generally, the two datasets show good spatial and temporal agreement. COSMIC's global water vapor retrieval is slightly lower than ERA5's at 500 and 850 hPa, with distinct latitudinal differences between hemispheres. COSMIC exhibits global water vapor increasing trends of 3.47 ± 1.77 % per decade, 3.25 ± 1.25 % per decade, and 2.03 ± 0.65 % per decade at 300, 500, and 850 hPa, respectively. Significant regional variability in water vapor trends, encompassing notable increasing and decreasing patterns, is observable in tropical and subtropical regions. At 500 and 850 hPa, strong water vapor increasing trends are noted in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Laccadive Sea, while decreasing trends are evident in the Indo-Pacific Ocean region and the Arabian Sea. Over land, substantial increasing trends at 850 hPa are observed in the southern United States, contrasting with decreasing trends in southern Africa and Australia. The differences between the water vapor trends of COSMIC and ERA5 are primarily negative in the tropical regions at 850 hPa. However, the water vapor increasing trends at 850 hPa estimated from COSMIC are significantly higher than the ones derived from ERA5 data for two low-height stratocumulus-cloud-rich ocean regions west of Africa and South America. These regions with notable water vapor trend differences are located in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) area with frequent occurrences of convection, such as deep clouds. The difference in characterizing water vapor distribution between RO and ERA5 in deep cloud regions may cause such trend differences. The assessment of spatiotemporal variability in RO-derived water vapor and reanalysis of atmospheric water vapor data helps ensure the quality of these datasets for climate studies.

Atmospheric response to seasonal changes in sea surface temperature during the boreal summer in the Tropical Atlantic

We investigate the atmospheric response to seasonal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic during the boreal summer, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional atmospheric model. Three ensembles of 11 simulations each are produced with different SST forcings: the control ensemble (CTL) uses the observed climatology of the SST in 2000–2009, while the Frozen North (FzN) and Frozen South (FzS) experiments block the seasonal warming or cooling of the SST from June onwards in a region confined to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The result is a cold SST anomaly in the northeastern tropical Atlantic off the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania in FzN, and a warm anomaly in the southeastern region (Gulf of Guinea and the cold tongue zone in the equatorial Atlantic) in FzS. Comparison with CTL reveals significant impacts of these SST anomalies on the position and intensity of the marine intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and on West African rainfall during July and August. Over the ocean, the cold anomaly in NETA suppresses convection on the northern side of the ITCZ (north of 10∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document}N), while the warm anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea strengthens convection on its southern flank. The latter is also leading to a sharp increase in precipitation in the coastal regions to the northeast of the Gulf of Guinea. These changes are clearly due to variations in surface pressure gradients and the divergence of low-level moisture in response to SST anomalies, which in turn induce changes in deep atmospheric convection through thermodynamic feedback. On the continent, a substantial reduction in precipitation is observed in the western Sahel (particularly Senegal) following the cold anomaly in NETA, and in the eastern Sahel following the warm anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea: both are explained by a positive anomaly in the divergence of moisture transport in the upper troposphere, associated with an acceleration of the African easterly jet along its southern edge. However, the mechanism by which the SST anomalies create this acceleration in both experiments remains to be elucidated.