Zonal Shift Research Articles

Cause for quasi-biweekly oscillation of zonal location of western Pacific subtropical high during boreal summer

The cause for zonal oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) on a quasi-biweekly (10–20-day) timescale was investigated. Both relative vorticity and geopotential height anomalies exhibit a maximum activity center over the western edge of the climatological WPSH. The quasi-biweekly WPSH oscillation is closely related to a northwestward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) mode over the western North Pacific (WNP). A real-time index of the WNP-QBWO is used to analyze the influence of the northwestward-propagating WNP-QBWO mode on the zonal shift of the WPSH. The QBWO convection anomaly propagates northwestward from the tropical WNP to East Asia. It is the alternation of a positive and a negative geopotential height anomaly during the northwestward propagating journey that leads to the zonal oscillation of the WPSH. Once a positive (negative) QBWO geopotential height propagates from tropical WNP into the western edge of the climatological WPSH, it leads to a western extension (eastern retreat) of the WPSH. This provides a monitoring and predicting method of the zonal shift of the WPSH at an extended rang by using the real-time index. Two mechanisms are likely responsible for the northwestward propagation of the WNP-QBWO mode. The first is internal atmospheric dynamics. Both positive vorticity and moisture anomalies appear to the northwest of the QBWO convection, favoring the northwestward propagation. The second is attributed to the atmosphere-ocean interaction. A warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly leads the QBWO convection by an approximately 90-degree phase, and both the SST and convection anomalies move northwestward.

Distinct Mechanisms Underlying Interannual to Decadal Variability of Observed Salinity and Nutrient Concentration in the Northern North Sea

AbstractThe influence of large‐scale oceanic circulation on salinity in the northern North Sea has lead to the hypothesis that nutrient concentrations in this region are also driven by remote oceanic anomalies. Here, using a newly established biogeochemical data set of the North Sea, we show that interannual to decadal variability in winter nutrient concentrations exhibits distinct phase deviations from salinity. The variability in salinity is explained by zonal shifts in the position of the subpolar front (SPF) in the eastern North Atlantic and the associated advective delay. However, the high correlation and absence of advective delay between the position of the SPF and winter nutrient concentrations in the Shetland region (59–61°N, 1°W to 3°E) point to the role of atmospheric variability in driving concurrent changes in winter nutrient concentrations and the SPF position. Our analysis suggests that the prevailing wind direction and local distribution of winter nutrient concentrations together determine the interannual to decadal variability in winter nutrient concentrations in this region. In the analyzed observations, we find a strong spatial gradient in mean winter nutrient concentrations northwest of the Shetland region, which is absent in salinity. The horizontal shift of this spatial gradient, forced by changes in wind direction, has a larger influence on winter nutrient concentration in the Shetland region than the nutrient signal in oceanic anomalies originating from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Overall, we conclude that interannual to decadal variability in the observed nutrient concentrations is mainly driven by atmospheric variability here expressed as wind direction.

Mass, nutrients and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) lateral transports off northwest Africa during fall 2002 and spring 2003

Abstract. The circulation patterns and the impact of the lateral export of nutrients and organic matter off NW Africa are examined by applying an inverse model to two hydrographic datasets gathered in fall 2002 and spring 2003. These estimates show significant changes in the circulation patterns at central levels from fall to spring, particularly in the southern boundary of the domain related to zonal shifts of the Cape Verde Frontal Zone. Southward transports at the surface and central levels at 26∘ N are 5.6±1.9 Sv in fall and increase to 6.7±1.6 Sv in spring; westward transports at 26∘ W are 6.0±1.8 Sv in fall and weaken to 4.0±1.8 Sv in spring. At 21∘ N a remarkable temporal variability is obtained, with a northward mass transport of 4.4±1.5 Sv in fall and a southward transport of 5.2±1.6 Sv in spring. At intermediate levels important spatiotemporal differences are also observed, and it must be highlighted that a northward net mass transport of 2.0±1.9 Sv is obtained in fall at both the south and north transects. The variability in the circulation patterns is also reflected in lateral transports of inorganic nutrients (SiO2, NO3, PO4) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Hence, in fall the area acts as a sink of inorganic nutrients and a source of DOC, while in spring it reverses to a source of inorganic nutrients and a sink of DOC. A comparison between nutrient fluxes from both in situ observations and numerical modeling output is finally addressed.

Potential impact of atmospheric heating over East Europe on the zonal shift in the South Asian high: the role of the Silk Road teleconnection

It is well recognized that the zonal shift in the South Asian High (SAH) has pronounced influences on weather and climate anomalies over surrounding and teleconnected regions. Hence, it is of great importance to investigate the factors related to the interannual variation in the zonal location of the SAH. This study indicates that the anomalous atmospheric apparent heat source (<Q1>) around East Europe has a close relationship with the interannual variation in the SAH zonal shift during boreal summer. In particular, when above (below) normal <Q1> exists, the SAH tends to shift westward (eastward). Above-normal <Q1> over East Europe can trigger an eastward propagating wave train along the subtropical jet stream, resembling the negative phase of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern, with positive geopotential height anomalies around the Iranian Plateau and Northeast Asia and negative anomalies around East Europe and the Tibetan Plateau, which could lead to a westward shift in the SAH. Our model experiments confirm that anomalous <Q1> around East Europe can exert pronounced impacts on the zonal shift in the SAH by inducing an eastward propagating atmospheric wave train.

Feedbacks and eddy diffusivity in an energy balance model of tropical rainfall shifts

Radiative feedbacks are known to strongly modify horizontal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) produced by remote atmospheric energy sources. This study uses a one-dimensional moist energy balance model to understand how radiative feedbacks and the structure of an imposed eddy diffusivity can influence such ITCZ shifts. The Planck feedback is shown to damp ITCZ shifts more strongly for extratropical forcings than for tropical ones, because lower moisture content in cold regions makes the temperature response larger there. The water vapor feedback on ITCZ shifts is shown to be dominated by changes in the cross-equatorial asymmetry of the relative humidity of subtropical dry zones, with additional contributions by the changes in mixing ratio that occur at fixed relative humidity and by the meridional shift of the humid ITCZ. Finally, the ITCZ response is found to be highly sensitive to the meridional structure of the diffusivity; the ITCZ shift increases with the tropical diffusivity, even when the global mean diffusivity is fixed.

Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index

The north Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) has been widely implicated as the source of large-scale changes in the subpolar marine environment. However, inconsistencies between indices of SPG-strength have raised questions about the active role SPG-strength and size play in determining water properties in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic (ENA). Here, by analyzing various SPG indices derived from observations and a global coupled model, we show that the choice of the SPG index dictates the interpretation of SPG strength-salinity relationship in the ENA. Variability in geostrophic currents derived from observed hydrography and model based Lagrangian trajectories reveal zonal shifts of advective pathways in the ENA and meridional shifts in the western intergyre region. Such shifts in advective pathways are manifestations of variability in the size and strength of the SPG, and they impact salinity by modulating the proportion of subpolar and subtropical waters reaching the ENA. SPG indices based on subsurface density and principal component analysis of sea surface height variability capture these shifts in advective pathways, and are therefore best suited to describe SPG-salinity relationship in the ENA. Our results establish the dynamical constraints on the choice of the SPG index and emphasize that SPG indices should be cautiously interpreted.

NALPS19: sub-orbital-scale climate variability recorded in northern Alpine speleothems during the last glacial period

Abstract. Sub-orbital-scale climate variability of the last glacial period provides important insights into the rates at which the climate can change state, the mechanisms that drive such changes, and the leads, lags, and synchronicity occurring across different climate zones. Such short-term climate variability has previously been investigated using δ18O from speleothems (δ18Ocalc) that grew along the northern rim of the Alps (NALPS), enabling direct chronological comparisons with δ18O records from Greenland ice cores (δ18Oice). In this study, we present NALPS19, which includes a revision of the last glacial NALPS δ18Ocalc chronology over the interval 118.3 to 63.7 ka using 11, newly available, clean, precisely dated stalagmites from five caves. Using only the most reliable and precisely dated records, this period is now 90 % complete and is comprised of 16 stalagmites from seven caves. Where speleothems grew synchronously, the timing of major transitional events in δ18Ocalc between stadials and interstadials (and vice versa) are all in agreement on multi-decadal timescales. Ramp-fitting analysis further reveals that, except for one abrupt change, the timing of δ18O transitions occurred synchronously within centennial-scale dating uncertainties between the NALPS19 δ18Ocalc record and the Asian monsoon composite speleothem δ18Ocalc record. Due to the millennial-scale uncertainties in the ice core chronologies, a comprehensive comparison with the NALPS19 chronology is difficult. Generally, however, we find that the absolute timing of transitions in the Greenland Ice Core Chronology (GICC) 05modelext and Antarctic Ice Core Chronology (AICC) 2012 are in agreement on centennial scales. The exception to this is during the interval of 100 to 115 ka, where transitions in the AICC2012 chronology occurred up to 3000 years later than in NALPS19. In such instances, the transitions in the revised AICC2012 chronology of Extier et al. (2018) are in agreement with NALPS19 on centennial scales, supporting the hypothesis that AICC2012 appears to be considerably too young between 100 and 115 ka. Using a ramp-fitting function to objectively identify the onset and the end of abrupt transitions, we show that δ18O shifts took place on multi-decadal to multi-centennial timescales in the North Atlantic-sourced regions (northern Alps and Greenland) as well as the Asian monsoon. Given the near-complete record of δ18Ocalc variability during the last glacial period in the northern Alps, we also offer preliminary considerations regarding the controls on mean δ18Ocalc for given stadials and interstadials. We find that, as expected, δ18Ocalc values became increasingly lighter with distance from the oceanic source regions, and increasingly lighter with increasing altitude. Exceptions were found for some high-elevation sites that locally display δ18Ocalc values that are heavier than expected in comparison to lower-elevation sites, possibly caused by a summer bias in the recorded signal of the high-elevation site, or a winter bias in the low-elevation site. Finally, we propose a new mechanism for the centennial-scale stadial-level depletions in δ18O such as the Greenland Stadial (GS)-16.2, GS-17.2, GS-21.2, and GS-23.2 “precursor” events, as well as the “within-interstadial” GS-24.2 cooling event. Our new high-precision chronology shows that each of these δ18O depletions occurred in the decades and centuries following rapid rises in sea level associated with increased ice-rafted debris and southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, suggesting that influxes of meltwater from moderately sized ice sheets may have been responsible for the cold reversals causing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to slow down similar to the Preboreal Oscillation and Older Dryas deglacial events.

The response of a dune succession from Lençóis Maranhenses, NE Brazil, to climate changes between MIS 3 and MIS 2

In tropical Southern Hemisphere South America, late Quaternary marine core and speleothem records provide different proxies and accurate chronologies correlating millennial-scale intervals of increased precipitation with southward shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, the climatic effect of these intervals on coastal landforms is poorly understood. Here we investigated the response of abrupt and long-lasting climate events during the Marine Isotope Stages 3 and 2 in a 13.8-m thick sand succession located in a large-scale coastal eolian system, the Lençóis Maranhenses Dunefield, NE Brazil, where winds and precipitation are anti-phased and controlled by the single action of the ITCZ. A chronology of the sediment overburden determined by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of 14 sediment samples obtained at 1-m intervals showed ages between 132.2 ± 7.0 and 12.9 ± 0.6 thousand years ago in stratigraphic order. A multi-proxy approach based on grain size, surface grain texture, heavy minerals, thermoluminescence (TL) sensitivity, inorganic geochemistry, reflectance, and magnetic parameters from 268 sediment samples collected at 5-cm intervals indicated periods of dune building and stabilization. Significant stabilization periods are synchronous with Heinrich Stadials 6, 4, 3, 2, and 1, and Greenland Stadial 4, within age model uncertainties. Heavy mineral analysis indicated a steady sand source to the dune succession, while TL sensitivity analysis of quartz grains showed the input allochthonous sediments during stadials. The preservation of peak dune activity during the Last Glacial Maximum is attributed to the enduring precipitation brought by the subsequent Heinrich Stadial 1 event.

Quasi‐Biweekly Oscillation of the South Asian High and Its Role in Connecting the Indian and East Asian Summer Rainfalls

AbstractInvestigation into the intraseasonal variation of the South Asian high (SAH) and its relationship with the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon rainfalls indicates that the 10–20 day period dominates the subseasonal zonal oscillation of the SAH between the Iranian mode and the Tibetan mode. The eastward shift of SAH lags a rainfall decrease over northern India by about 1 day, but leads a rainfall increase over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) by about 3 days. Interactive processes are also revealed on quasi‐biweekly time scales. The latent heating over northern India contributes to the southwestward shift of a pair of cyclone‐anticyclone anomalies from the midlatitudes to the SAH region, resulting in the zonal shift of the SAH. An associated upper‐level divergence over eastern China leads to the rainfall increase over the YRV 3 days later. The lead‐lag relationships revealed may benefit the subseasonal rainfall prediction over the two monsoon regions.

An extreme climate transition in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands. II. Sun and Northern hemisphere atmospheric–oceanic feedbacks

AbstractThe last 60 years of extreme climate variability, and a 1980s climatic shift in the Caribbean's Virgin Islands were analysed to explore relationships with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El‐Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and sunspot numbers. AMO, NAO, ENSO, and sunspot number relationships with the Virgin Islands climate were assessed from measures to their number density of statistically significant correlation with 17 extreme climate indices. Decadal daytime cooling negatively (positively) correlated with AMO (ENSO) records, while moderate nightly warming positively related to the AMO, ENSO, and NAO. In the decades following the late 1970s to early 1980s, evidence was suggestive of an increased lead time for local temperature responses. A relationship with sunspots in extreme temperature was indicated in daytime variations, at a lead time consistent with NAO influences expected from solar activity. The NAO, and to a lesser extent the ENSO, exhibited a negative association to extreme precipitation, while the AMO and sunspot number records only supported a connectivity post 1970s. Twentieth century strengthening of the tropical Atlantic tripole in sea surface temperatures is implicated as the source of decadal warming, and an increasingly rainy climate. More frequent poleward shifts of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone are suggested to explain recent decadal rises in intense rainfall events, from increased occurrences in organized deep convection.

Evaluating the Risk of Corona Discharge in Superalloy Vacuum Induction Melting Furnace Applications

Corona discharge, or gas breakdown, is undesired in superalloy vacuum induction melting (VIM) applications as it can damage insulation, produce ozone and subsequently oxidize and contaminate the melt. Gas breakdown also introduces uncontrolled variations to the casting process and increases the risk of needing to scrap the end product. To reduce the risk of corona, a rule-of-thumb of 150 to 1000 micron (150 mTorr to 1 Torr) was developed in the past as a No-Go Pressure Zone. Operating within this zone has been observed to create an unwanted, readily ionizable environment. An analytical model is developed within this work to evaluate the historical rule-of-thumb. The analytical model incorporates the following elements: Paschen’s law, gas compressibility, gas and insulation permittivity, and electric field non-uniformity. The model is then applied to a sampling of VIM furnace designs to evaluate the shifts of the No-Go Pressure Zone due to variations in configuration and other operating conditions. In the end, the objective is to improve VIM furnace design and operation to reduce the risk of corona discharge—thereby improving the casting process, practice of alloy melting and quality of the end product.

Decadal changes in the leading patterns of sea level pressure in the Arctic and their impacts on the sea ice variability in boreal summer

Abstract. Besides its negative trend, the interannual and the interdecadal changes in the Arctic sea ice have also been pronounced in recent decades. The three leading modes in the sea level pressure (SLP) variability in the Arctic (70–90∘ N) – the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Arctic Dipole (AD), and the third mode (A3) – are analyzed to understand the linkage between sea ice variability and large-scale atmospheric circulation in boreal summer (June–August). This study also compares the decadal changes of the modes between the early (1982–1997) and the recent (1998–2017) periods and their influences on the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE). Only the AD mode shows a significant correlation increase with SIE in summer (JJA) from −0.05 in the early period to 0.57 in the recent period. The AO and the A3 modes show a less significant relationship with SIE for the two periods. The AD is characterized by a dipole pattern of SLP, which modulates the strength of meridional surface winds and the Transpolar Drift Stream (TDS). The major circulation change in the late 1990s is that the direction of the wind has been changed more meridionally over the exit region of the Fram Strait, which causes sea ice drift and discharge through that region. In addition, the response of surface albedo and the net surface heat flux becomes larger and much clearer, suggesting a positive sea-ice–albedo feedback in the sea ice variability associated with the AD. The analysis also reveals that the zonal shift of the centers of SLP anomalies and associated circulation change affects a significant reduction in sea ice concentration over the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean. This study further suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase change could influence the spatial pattern change in the AD.

Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events.

Investigating the linkage between simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly based on multi-model and perturbed parameter ensembles

It remains a challenge for climate models to correctly capture the relationship between precipitation and ENSO. This study examines the linkage between the simulated precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly during boreal winter based on the multi-model ensemble from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (AMIP5) and perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) with the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) atmospheric model. The AMIP5 models have large biases in simulating the tropical precipitation anomaly during El Nino, such as the shifts of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The inter-model differences show that the precipitation change in response to sea surface temperature (SST) change increases with enhanced precipitation climatology. The ENSO-related precipitation anomaly can also be related to the spatial distribution of the mean-state precipitation. The simulated ITCZ/SPCZ displacements are significantly correlated with the spatial precipitation-SST relationship in the mean state. Models with stronger mean-state precipitation-SST relationship also produce stronger SPCZ/ITCZ displacements. The mean-state tropical precipitation also has strong impacts on the ENSO-related precipitation anomalies over East Asia. In the BCC PPE, the connection between the mean-state precipitation and ENSO-related precipitation anomaly is overall consistent with that in AMIP5. Parameters associated with the low-cloud and deep convection processes are the most influential ones for the precipitation simulations in BCC. Compared with the version in AMIP5, the new BCC model can better simulate the precipitation climatology and the relationship between ENSO and precipitation over southern China. These results have important implications for model development and model-based climate predictions.

Rainfall variations in central Indo-Pacific over the past 2,700 y

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niño-like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability.

Role of the East Asian trough on the eastern Mediterranean temperature variability in early spring and the extreme case of 2004 warm spell

This study investigates the potential influence of the East Asian trough (EAT) on the eastern Mediterranean temperature variability in early spring. In connection with this, it also examines the extreme case of the year 2004 when anomalous warming of the eastern Anatolia resulted in unprecedented snowmelt runoff amounts in the Euphrates and Tigris basins in early March. In the analyses, we used reanalysis data, gridded products of surface temperature and snow cover, river discharge data and satellite imagery. We employed an intensity index for the EAT and a trough displacement index for the Mediterranean trough (MedT) to explore the relationship between the strength of the EAT and the displacement of the MedT at pentad resolution. Our analysis shows that there are statistically significant correlations (at 99% confidence level) between the strength of the EAT and the zonal shift of the MedT on some pentads (e.g., 3rd, 13th, 37th and 59th), but that the highest correlation occurs on the 13th pentad of the year corresponding to the early days of March. It seems that, on this pentad, when the EAT is strong, the MedT tends to be located in the west of its climatological position (about $$30\hbox {$-$}35^{\circ }\hbox {E}$$ ) which causes warmer conditions over the eastern Mediterranean. In 2004, which appears to be an extreme year for this phenomenon, the MedT is positioned and deepened in the central Mediterranean (about $$10\hbox {$-$}15^{\circ }\hbox {E}$$ ), and extended towards central Africa during the early days of March. This synoptic pattern provided favorable conditions for the development of a tropical plume/atmospheric river with a southwest-northeast orientation, carrying warm tropical African air towards the eastern Mediterranean and Anatolian highlands resulting in rapid melting of the snowpack as well as severe precipitation, and thus flooding events, in the eastern Anatolia. A key finding in our analysis is that the strengthening of the EAT was instrumental to the increased amplitude of the ridge-trough system over the Euro-Mediterranean region in the early days of 2004 spring. We highlight that the response of surface and upper level meteorological conditions to the amplitude of the ridge-trough system enhanced by the strength of the EAT might be crucial in the understanding of some of the extreme hydrometeorological events in the eastern Mediterranean region.

Response of Southern China Winter Rainfall to El Niño Diversity and Its Relevance to Projected Southern China Rainfall Change

AbstractResponding to El Niño diversity, greater winter southern China (SC) rainfall is associated with an anomalous warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, but less rainfall with an anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific. Compared with other widely used indices, the first two principal components of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific better represent the influences of the different El Niño anomaly patterns on winter SC rainfall. This is because these two indices can distinguish a zonal shift of the west North Pacific anticyclone, which conveys the tropical Pacific influence on SC rainfall. At a positive phase, the first principal component features a pattern similar to that of a canonical El Niño, whereas the second component is characterized by a warming in the central Pacific. Based on these two indices, performance of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models in simulating the SC rainfall response to El Niño is evaluated. About half of the models cannot reproduce the response to either principal component. The majority of the remaining models can only simulate the response to one principal component, and only five models produce a reasonable response to both principal components. Importantly, changes to SC rainfall in the future depend on the simulation of the SC rainfall response. Models that simulate the teleconnection of SC rainfall with only the first (second) principal component project an increase (decrease) in SC rainfall. Projection of a rainfall change in models that simulate the teleconnection with both principal components, that is, a moderate increase in SC winter rainfall, is more credible.

The South Atlantic–South Indian Ocean Pattern: a Zonally Oriented Teleconnection along the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet in Austral Summer

Extratropical teleconnections significantly affect the climate in subtropical and mid-latitude regions. Understanding the variability of atmospheric teleconnection in the Southern Hemisphere, however, is still limited in contrast with the well-documented counterpart in the Northern Hemisphere. This study investigates the interannual variability of mid-latitude circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in austral summer based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset during 1980–2016. A stationary mid-latitude teleconnection is revealed along the strong Southern Hemisphere westerly jet over the South Atlantic and South Indian Ocean (SAIO). The zonally oriented SAIO pattern represents the first EOF mode of interannual variability of meridional winds at 200 hPa over the region, with a vertical barotropic structure and a zonal wavenumber of 4. It significantly modulates interannual climate variations in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere in austral summer, especially the opposite change in rainfall and surface air temperature between Northwest and Southeast Australia. The SAIO pattern can be efficiently triggered by divergences over mid-latitude South America and the southwest South Atlantic, near the entrance of the westerly jet, which is probably related to the zonal shift of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. The triggered wave train is then trapped within the Southern Hemisphere westerly jet waveguide and propagates eastward until it diverts northeastward towards Australia at the jet exit, in addition to portion of which curving equatorward at approximately 50° E towards the southwest Indian Ocean.

Mechanism for asymmetric atmospheric responses in the western North Pacific to El Niño and La Niña

The cause of asymmetric atmospheric circulation responses over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) to El Nino and La Nina was investigated through observational analyses and idealized modeling experiments. Firstly, column integrated moisture and moist static energy budget analyses were carried out to reveal the cause of asymmetric precipitation anomalies over the WNP. The result indicates that negative nonlinear moist enthalpy advection anomalies occur in both El Nino and La Nina, and they tend to induce a negative precipitation anomaly in the key WNP region and thus an anomalous anticyclone during both El Nino and La Nina winters. This, together with linear moist enthalpy advection, results in an asymmetric atmospheric circulation response. Secondly, the relative roles of the nonlinear moist enthalpy advection and the zonal shift of longitudinal location of anomalous heating over the central-eastern Pacific between El Nino and La Nina were investigated through an anomaly general circulation model. It is found that both the nonlinear advection and the zonally asymmetric heating contribute equally to the observed zonal shift of the anomalous WNP anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation centers between El Nino and La Nina.

Intermodel Diversity in the Zonal Location of the Climatological East Asian Westerly Jet Core in Summer and Association with Rainfall over East Asia in CMIP5 Models

The East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), an important midlatitude circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon system, plays a crucial role in affecting summer rainfall over East Asia. The multimodel ensemble of current coupled models can generally capture the intensity and location of the climatological summer EAJ. However, individual models still exhibit large discrepancies. This study investigates the intermodel diversity in the longitudinal location of the simulated summer EAJ climatology in the present-day climate and its implications for rainfall over East Asia based on 20 CMIP5 models. The results show that the zonal location of the simulated EAJ core is located over either the midlatitude Asian continent or the western North Pacific (WNP) in different models. The zonal shift of the EAJ core depicts a major intermodel diversity of the simulated EAJ climatology. The westward retreat of the EAJ core is related to a warmer mid-upper tropospheric temperature in the midlatitudes, with a southwest-northeast tilt extending from Southwest Asia to Northeast Asia and the northern North Pacific, induced partially by the simulated stronger rainfall climatology over South Asia. The zonal shift of the EAJ core has some implications for the summer rainfall climatology, with stronger rainfall over the East Asian continent and weaker rainfall over the subtropical WNP in relation to the westward-located EAJ core.