Meridional Research Articles

Investigation of the long-term variation of gravity waves over South America using empirical orthogonal function analysis

The spatial and temporal variability of gravity waves (GWs) potential energy (Ep) over South America (SA) was examined by analyzing temperature profiles obtained through the utilization of Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) from January 2002 to December 2021. We used the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to decompose GWs parameters and to analyze the GW variations over SA. We considered the first three eigenmodes (EOF1, EOF2, and EOF3) and their principal components (PC1, PC2, and PC3) of the EOF decomposition, which accounts for ∼80–90% of the total GWs variation over SA. Further, we analyzed the coupled variation of Ep and zonal mean wind (U) to verify their inter-dependencies using the singular value decomposition (SVD). The spatial variation showed that different localized mechanisms generate GWs at different sectors of the continent. The EOF1 of Ep comprised more than 50%, the EOF2 ∼20–25%, and the third ∼10–15% of the total GWs variation. The positive variation of GWs energy in the EOF1 is localized in the tropical region from the lower stratosphere to the lower mesosphere and southward below 1.5° S in the upper mesosphere. The spectral analysis of GWs energy showed biannual, annual, semiannual, and 11-year variations at different eigenvectors. Relative Ep (REp) showed an asymmetric hemispheric response to solar flux over South America. The REp response to QBO showed a modulating effect below 70 km and a positive response above 70 km. There is a good positive correlation between the temporal component of EOF2 of Ep and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) at 30 mb and 50 mb in the PC2 temporal variation.Graphical

Large Ozone Hole in 2023 and the Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption

AbstractPolar stratospheric chemistry is highly sensitive to changes in water vapor content and temperature. We identified an unusual behavior of water vapor and temperature in the southern polar winter stratosphere in 2023. The relationships between the Hunga-Tonga eruption injection of water vapor (detected in the tropics) and its transport to SH high latitudes, temperature changes and ozone anomalies at southern high latitudes are discussed, as well as the roles of zonal wind and the meridional flux of zonal mean zonal momentum. These parameters exhibit a consistent pattern in anomalous year 2023. In the winter of 2023 in the Southern Hemisphere, an unexpected decrease in ozone levels and the emergence of an excessive ozone hole were observed. This event marked one of the deepest Antarctic ozone holes with the largest area since 2011. This appears to be associated with the Hunga Tonga eruption anomalous water vapor injection. This study highlights importance of water vapor for evolution of the Antarctic stratosphere.

Multiple jets in a rotating annulus model with an imposed azimuthal magnetic field

Zonal flows driven by rotation and convection are found commonly within astrophysical and geophysical bodies. Multiple jets are most famously observed on the surface of Jupiter, with prograde and retrograde zonal flows making up part of its banded structure of zones and belts. Non-magnetic studies of convection in a rotating annulus model have previously been shown to produce multiple jet structures, similar to those observed in atmospheres of giant planets such as Jupiter. These giant planets have strong magnetic fields which impact on convection in the electrically conducting regions of their atmospheres. Therefore the effect of a magnetic field on the multiple jet solutions of the annulus model is of astrophysical interest. In this work we impose a uniform azimuthal magnetic field to the annulus model and vary its strength and other control parameters to determine the parameter space where multiple jets exist. Zonal flows and multiple jet solutions are found at weak magnetic field strength and, indeed, the magnetic field can promote the production of these features. Simulations with a weak magnetic field or no magnetic field are also found to match well with the Rhines scaling theory. For cases with multiple jets, a strong inertial force must be present, combined with either a weak Lorentz force, or a Lorentz force entering the main balance with increased contributions from the viscous force. At strong magnetic field strengths two regimes are found. For weak magnetic diffusion zonal flows can be retained, albeit without the multiple jet structure. For larger magnetic diffusion non-axisymmetric solutions without clear bands are found. In these regimes, the Lorentz force appears in the primary balance of forces and zonal flows are only retained at strong driving when inertia is able to also enter the balance at leading order.

Dynamic evolution of amplitude and position of geomagnetic secular acceleration pulses since 2000

Recent studies on the behavior of geomagnetic secular acceleration (SA) pulses have provided a basis for understanding the dynamic processes in the Earth’s core. This analysis statistically evaluates the evolution of the SA pulse amplitude and position since 2000 by computing the three-year difference in SA with the CHAOS-7 geomagnetic field model (CHAOS-7.17 release). Furthermore, the study explores the correlation between the acceleration pulse amplitude and geomagnetic jerks and the dynamic processes of alternating variation and polarity reversal of pulse patches over time. Research findings indicate that the variation in pulse amplitude at the Core Mantle Boundary (CMB) closely resembles that observed at the Earth’s surface, with an average period of 3.2 years. The timing of peak pulse amplitude aligns with that of the geomagnetic jerk, suggesting its potential utility as a novel indicator for detecting geomagnetic jerk events. The acceleration pulses are the strongest near the equator (2°N) and more robust in the high-latitude region (68°S) of the Southern Hemisphere, indicating that the variation is more dramatic in the Southern Hemisphere. The acceleration pulses fluctuate unevenly in the west-east direction, with characteristics of local variation. In the Western Hemisphere, the pulse patches are distributed near the equator, exhibiting an evident westward drifting mode. The positive and negative patches alternate in time, displaying a polarity reversal in the west-east direction, with an average interval of approximately 32°. These characteristics can be attributed to the rapid magnetic field fluctuations disclosed by the model of stratification at the top of the Earth’s core. In the Eastern Hemisphere, the pulses are weaker between 10°E and 60°E, with the most active pulses occurring around 80°E to 105°E and near 150°E. The pulse patches exhibit a broader distribution in the north-south direction, with relatively strong patches still occurring near 40°N and 40°S. These local variation characteristics match the actual cases of zonal flows and geostrophic Alfvén waves in the Earth’s core.

Inter-America meridional circulation and boreal summer climate

Atmospheric convection across the northern inter-Americas is modulated by trade-wind subsidence and subtropical easterly waves from June to October. Northward migration of the equatorial trough is coupled to the meridional circulation (MC) and surface temperatures above 27ºC. Forming a MC index via S-N height sections of total and anomalous streamfunction, statistical relationships are examined which focus on Jun-Oct season when the South American monsoon is quiescent. Both east Pacific and tropical north Atlantic exhibit cool ocean – dry atmosphere response to an intensified MC. During periods of faster MC, composite humidity is depleted over the Caribbean 10–25 N in conjunction with westerly wind shear, thereby limiting atmospheric convection. The ocean response to intensified MC is evaporative cooling and a deep layer of increased salinity in the Caribbean, that may sustain anomalous air-sea interactions. Long-term trends reveal intensification of the MC in boreal summer: rising over the Amazon, subsiding over the Caribbean, inter-connected by lower and upper airflows. The annually pulsed MC conspires with inter-decadal trends to produce many of the features presented.

Responses of Ionospheric F Layer Radial Current to Substorms During Sawtooth Events

AbstractUsing Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) observations, responses of ionospheric radial current (IRC) in F‐layer to sawtooth substorms in different magnetic local times are investigated. The zonal wind effect alone cannot entirely explain the variability of the substorm time disturbance IRC. When substorms commence amid stable southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), it induces an eastward (westward) equatorial electric field in the daytime (nighttime). This electric field induces an equatorward (poleward) Hall current at low latitudes, consequently generating an upward (downward) perturbation in IRC. Conversely, substorms with varying IMF Bz, where IMF is southward but with a reduced magnitude or turned north after the onset, induce a westward (eastward) equatorial electric field in the daytime (nighttime). This electric field induces a poleward (equatorward) Hall current at low latitudes, consequently generating a downward (upward) disturbed IRC. Notably, this effect is primarily attributed to the varying IMF Bz rather than solely to substorm onset.

Meridional circulation streamlined

Time-dependent meridional circulation and differential rotation in radiative zones are central open issues in stellar evolution theory. We streamline this challenging problem using the “downward control principle” of atmospheric science, under a geostrophic f-plane approximation. We recover the known stellar physics result that the steady-state meridional circulation decays on the length scale proportional to N / f × Pr , assuming molecular viscosity is the dominant drag mechanism. Prior to steady-state, the meridional circulation and the zonal wind (= differential rotation) spread together via radiative diffusion, under thermal wind balance. The corresponding (fourth-order) hyperdiffusion process is reasonably well approximated by regular (second-order) diffusion on scales of order a pressure scale-height. We derive an inhomogeneous diffusion (equiv. advection-diffusion) equation for the zonal flow which admits closed-form time-dependent solutions in a finite depth domain, allowing for rapid prototyping of differential rotation profiles. In the weak drag limit, we find that the time to rotational steady-state can be longer than the Eddington-Sweet time and be instead determined by the longer drag time. Unless strong enough drag operates, the internal rotation of main-sequence stars may thus never reach a steady-state. Streamlined meridional circulation solutions provide leading-order internal rotation profiles for studying the role of fluid/MHD instabilities (or waves) in redistributing angular momentum in the radiative zones of stars. Despite clear geometrical limitations and simplifying assumptions, one might expect our thin-layer geostrophic approach to offer qualitatively useful results to understand deep meridional circulation in stars.

Electron-temperature-gradient-driven ion-scale turbulence in high-performance scenarios in Wendelstein 7-X

Through intercode gyrokinetic numerical simulations, we predict that, for the conditions met during improved performances in the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X, turbulent transport can be dominated by electron-temperature-gradient-driven ion-scale electrostatic turbulence. We find that previously numerically observed large density-gradient-driven turbulence reductions must be attributed to the artificial suppression of the electron temperature gradient. Instead, when electrons have a finite temperature gradient, we observe a moderate turbulence suppression whose quantitative comparison with experimental findings remains challenging. In such partial suppression, the nonlinear dynamics of zonal flows plays a pivotal role as opposed to the underlying most unstable linear modes. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Local spherical collapsing box in Athena++ : Numerical implementation and benchmark tests

We implement a local model for a spherical collapsing or expanding gas cloud in the Athena++ magnetohydrodynamic code. This local model consists of a Cartesian periodic box with time-dependent geometry. We present a series of benchmark test problems, including nonlinear solutions and linear perturbations of the local model, confirming the code's desired performance. During a spherical collapse, a horizontal shear flow is amplified, corresponding to angular momentum conservation of zonal flows in the global problem; wave speed and the amplitude of sound waves increase in the local frame, due to the reduction in the characteristic length scale of the box, which can lead to an anisotropic effective sound speed in the local box. Our code conserves both mass and momentum-to-machine precision. This numerical implementation of the local model has potential applications to the study of local physics and hydrodynamic instabilities during protostellar collapse, providing a powerful framework for better understanding the earliest stages of star and planet formation.

Interannual sea level variability in the North and Baltic seas and net flux through the Danish straits

The paper presents the reconstruction of sea levels in the North Sea and Baltic Sea using Kalman filter approach. Based on the statistical characteristics of one year of daily maps of sea level from the Geesthacht COAstal model SysTem (GCOAST) and daily data at tide gauges along the coastline of two basins, the method can reconstruct effectively and accurately the multidecadal sea level anomalies. The high accuracy reconstruction data were then used to investigate the interannual variability in both basins and to estimate the difference between outflows and inflows (net flux) through the Danish Straits. The highest mean, standard deviation, and extreme values of sea level anomalies appear in winter and are well reproduced in different regions, such as the German Bight, the Southern North Sea, the Bothnian Bay, the Gulfs of Finland and Riga. The sea level variability is highly correlated with the mean sea level pressure and the zonal wind, particularly in the German Bight and in the winter months. The contributions of river runoff and net precipitation on the net flux are significant in the spring. The local wind has a greater influence on the net flux than the remote drivers.

Impact of the East Asian subtropical jet on summer precipitation in China and its response to Atlantic sea surface temperature

AbstractERA5 reanalysis data, precipitation data from China, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data are used to analyse the impact of the meridional position of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) on summer precipitation in China and its correlation with Atlantic SST. The results indicate that when the EASJ significantly shifts northward, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) weakens with an eastward displacement. Upper‐level convergence and moisture divergence, corresponding to descending motion, lead to decreased precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). Meanwhile, upper‐level divergence occurs over South China (SC), the Hexi Corridor (HC), and Northeast China (NEC), where moisture converges and ascends, favouring an increase in precipitation. Conversely, when the EASJ undergoes a significant southward shift, the WNPSH strengthens and expands westward. Opposing atmospheric circulation patterns in these four regions result in reversed precipitation anomalies compared with those observed when the jet shifts northward. The meridional position of the EASJ is closely related to the summer subtropical Atlantic SST. The positive (negative) SST anomaly (SSTA) over the subtropical Atlantic induces negative (positive) geopotential height anomaly in the upper troposphere over the North Atlantic by modulating the atmospheric meridional circulation. Geopotential height anomalies trigger eastward‐propagating Rossby waves, generating anomalous cyclones and anticyclones over East Asia. These anomalous cyclones and anticyclones lead to zonal wind anomalies, which alter the strength of the westerlies on both sides of the climatological jet axis, thereby changing the jet's meridional position. Additionally, the difference in the propagation direction of wave activity flux between positive and negative SSTA alters the distribution of wave energy convergence and divergence in the EASJ region, further affecting the intensity of the average westerly winds on both sides of the climatological jet axis, ultimately producing the changes in the meridional position of the EASJ.

The Nighttime Horizontal Neutral Winds at Mohe Station in Response to the Temporal Oscillations of Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz

Temporal oscillations in the IMF Bz associated with Alfvén waves occur frequently in solar wind, with a duration ranging from minutes to hours. Using Swarm observations, Fabry–Pérot interferometer measurements at Mohe station, and Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamic General Circulation Model simulations, the perturbations of zonal (ΔUN) and meridional (ΔVN) winds due to temporal oscillations in the IMF Bz on 23–24 April 2023 are explored in the following work. ΔUN is strong westward with a speed of greater than 100 m/s at pre-midnight on 23–24 April. This phenomenon is primarily driven by the pressure gradient, offsetting by the ion drag and Coriolis force. On 23 April, ΔVN is weak northward at the pre-midnight and strong southward at a speed of ~200 m/s at pre-dawn. On 24 April, ΔVN is strong (weak) northward at pre-midnight (pre-dawn). It is mainly controlled by a balance between the pressure gradient, ion drag, and Coriolis force.

Disentangling Forced Trends in the North Atlantic Jet From Natural Variability Using Deep Learning

AbstractRegional weather variability and extremes over Europe are strongly linked to variations in the North Atlantic jet stream, especially during the winter season. Projections of the evolution of the North Atlantic jet are essential for estimating the regional impacts of climate change. Therefore, separating forced trends in the North Atlantic jet from its natural variability is an extremely relevant task. Here, a deep learning based method, the Latent Linear Adjustment Autoencoder (LLAE), is used for this purpose on an ensemble of fully‐coupled climate simulations. The LLAE is based on a variational autoencoder and an additional linear component. The model uses detrended temperature and geopotential to predict the component of the zonal wind associated with natural variability. The residual between this prediction and the original wind field is interpreted as the forced component of the jet. The method is first tested for the geostrophic wind for which the forced trend can be obtained analytically from the difference between geostrophic wind computed from detrended and full geopotential. Despite the large variability of the total trends, the LLAE is shown to be effective in extracting the forced component of the trend for each individual ensemble member in both geostrophic and full wind fields. The LLAE‐derived forced trend shows an increase in the upper‐level zonal wind speed along a southwest–northeast oriented band over the ocean and a jet extension toward Europe. These are common characteristics over different periods and show some similarities to the upper‐level zonal wind speed trend obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis.

Empirical orthogonal function analysis of lightning flashes over India

Lightning studies are highly focused on spatial and temporal variability in various scales but very limited studies are focused on dominant spatial modes of variability. This study intends to identify the possible spatial modes of climate variability of lightning over India during different seasons and relate them to regional and large-scale climate modes. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of lightning has been carried out and the first three orthogonally independent modes are considered in order to retrieve the maximum variance explained by each mode. To understand the role of remote and local teleconnections on the lightning flash rate (LFR) variability, we have analyzed two Pacific Ocean modes (El Niño Southern Oscillation; ENSO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation; PDO) and two Indian Ocean modes (Indian Ocean Dipole; IOD and Bay of Bengal (BOB) meridional Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradient). First mode is positively correlated with the warm phase of ENSO and PDO whereas second and third modes are negatively correlated with the warm phase of ENSO and PDO during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. Reverse is true for the monsoon season due to the shift in walker cell caused by the changes in the location of the heat sources and sinks. A strong positive correlation of IOD and BOB meridional SST gradient with first mode, suggests the vital role of nearby Indian Ocean in explaining the typical lightning flashes over India due to the enhanced zonal and meridional circulation, thereby moisture supply to the Indian subcontinent. The impact of Nino-3.4, IOD and BOB meridional SST gradient on lightning over India further suggest the role of SST in local and remote influence on lightning variability through the distribution and transport of heat and moisture.

Role of the Boreal Autumn Antarctic Oscillation in Controlling the Winter Frequency of Severe Pollution Events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China

AbstractThe Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), which is the main mode of extratropical circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, also has a substantial effect on the Northern Hemisphere climate. We investigated the influence of the early AAO on the frequency of late severe pollution events (SPEF) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (SPEFBTH) of China during winter. The results show that the winter (December–January–February) SPEFBTH is negatively correlated with the AAO from the previous autumn (August–September–October). The controlling mechanism can be briefly described as follows: the autumn AAO is positively correlated with the mid‐latitude sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic Ocean. The SST preserves the autumn anomaly signal into the following winter. This anomalous SST regulates changes in the tropical western Indian Ocean–Intertropical Convergence Zone (IN–ITCZ) via air–sea coupling. Subsequently, as a response to the IN–ITCZ anomalies, anomalous wave trains are excited in the upper troposphere from the tropical western Indian Ocean to East Asia. In addition, the local meridional circulation is modulated; therefore, the circulation field and other meteorological elements favorable for the SPEFBTH appear and exacerbate the SPEFBTH. This study describes a new physical mechanism for the pathway of the AAO influence on subsequent SPEFBTH and finds a predictable source in the Southern Hemisphere air–sea system.

Variability and predictability of a reduced-order land–atmosphere coupled model

Abstract. This study delves into the predictability of atmospheric blocking, zonal, and transition patterns utilizing a simplified coupled model. This model, implemented in Python, emulates midlatitude atmospheric dynamics with a two-layer quasi-geostrophic channel atmosphere on a β plane, encompassing simplified land effects. Initially, we comprehensively scrutinize the model's responses to environmental parameters like solar radiation, surface friction, and atmosphere–ground heat exchange. Our findings confirm that the model faithfully replicates real-world Earth-like flow regimes, establishing a robust foundation for further analysis. Subsequently, employing Gaussian mixture clustering, we successfully delineate distinct blocking, zonal, and transition flow regimes, unveiling their dependencies on surface friction. To gauge predictability and persistence, we compute the averaged local Lyapunov exponents for each regime. Our investigation uncovers the presence of zonal, blocking, and transition regimes, particularly under conditions of reduced surface friction. As surface friction increases further, the system transitions to a state characterized by two blocking regimes and a transition regime. Intriguingly, periodic behavior emerges under specific surface friction values, returning to patterns observed under low friction coefficients. A model resolution increase impacts the system in such a way that only two regimes are then obtained with the clustering: the transition phase disappears and the predictability drops to roughly 2 d for both of the remaining regimes. In accordance with previous research findings, our study underscores the fact that when all three regimes coexist, zonal patterns exhibit a more extended predictability horizon compared to blocking patterns. Remarkably, transition patterns exhibit reduced predictability when coexisting with the other regimes. In addition, within a specified range of surface friction values where two blocking regimes are found, it is observed that blocked atmospheric situations in the west of the applied topography are marked by instabilities and reduced predictability in contrast to the blockings appearing on the eastern side of the topography.

The associations of Tibetan Plateau spring snow cover with East Asian summer monsoon rainfall before and after 1990

In recent decades, the existence of a relationship between snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall has been emphasized. According to recently published studies this snow-monsoon relationship experienced a shift after 1990. Although the changing snow-monsoon relationship has been studied, the causes of the interdecadal changes remain unclear. This study assesses the associations of TP spring snow cover with EASM rainfall before and after 1990 and explores what possible mechanisms could be responsible for the interdecadal changes. Correlation and composite analyses were used to assess the strength of the relationship between TP spring snow cover and EASM rainfall and to analyze the atmospheric and land surface patterns associated with high snow cover. The outcomes suggest that the relationship between TP spring snow cover and EASM rainfall changes from partially negative to positive over all regions of the TP from 1968–1990 (P1) to 1991–2019 (P2), implying that more snow cover is associated with less (more) EASM rainfall during P1 (P2). In P1, years with high snow cover are associated with an anomalous cyclone southwest of the TP (positioned over Iran and Pakistan) in spring, which persists into the following summer, partly due to the underlying snow cover. The anomalous cyclone is accompanied by downstream anomalies over East Asia, which form a strong east-west oriented wave pattern and induce a northerly inflow of dry air over East Asia, reducing rainfall over the northern EASM domain. In P2, high snow cover years are associated with an anomalous cyclone over the western TP, which weakens and loses its significance in May-June and summer, partly due to a decline in snow forcing. Southeastward propagation of wave energy in May-June initiates the formation of an anomalous anticyclone over southeastern China and the western North Pacific. Concurrently, a meridional circulation develops over East Asia that enhances the southwesterly moisture inflow, resulting in increased EASM rainfall. The changing snow-monsoon relationship can be linked to different wave train patterns resulting from changes in the background zonal wind and meridional temperature gradients. This research contributes to a better understanding of the changing snow-monsoon relationship.

Simulation of triggering and evolution of ELM by pellet injection in EAST under BOUT++ framework

A BOUT ++ three-field magnetohydrodynamic model is employed to study the triggering and evolution of edge localized mode (ELM) by Li pellets injected along the outer mid-plane in the EAST configuration. The linear simulation shows that compared with a large deposition on the pedestal top (scenario I), a smaller deposition within the steep-gradient pedestal region (scenario II) can stimulate much larger linear growth rates of all-n peeling-ballooning modes (PBMs). The nonlinear simulation shows that there exists a pellet size threshold for ELM triggering for two deposition locations; the threshold for scenario I predicted in the present study matches the EAST observation well. Comparison of the two scenarios reveals that a smaller deposition is sufficient to trigger an ELM in a much shorter time in scenario II, whose ELM size is comparable to that in scenario I. This conclusion confirms previous DIII-D and ASDEX-Upgrade observations, suggesting that the steep-gradient pedestal region is a favorable deposition location for ELM triggering with minimum pellet size. Simulation analyses also find that the positive radial gradient of the hump-like pressure profile in the outer mid-plane induced by the pellet deposition plays a different role in the two scenarios. In scenario I, the force resulting from the gradient hinders the outflow of core plasmas and in return, the perturbation is suppressed from spreading inwards after ELM crashes. In scenario II, with a sizable deposition, the gradient results in another competitive perturbation growth region during the linear phase, thus dispersing the free energy and reducing the efficiency of destabilizing PBMs by pellet injection. The suppressing effect of saturated zonal flow on other modes, the short ELM fast crash phase, and the restricting transport effect of the positive radial pressure gradient work together to constrain the pedestal energy loss, especially when the pellet deposition amount is high.

The impact of monsoon on the landfalling tropical cyclone persistent precipitation in South China

Interactions between landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and monsoons in South China significantly influence precipitation duration, leading to severe disasters. Previous studies have primarily been individual cases, lacking systematic large-scale statistical analysis of the monsoon and landfalling tropical cyclone persistent precipitation (LTCPP) relationship. This study quantitatively investigated the relationship between monsoonal wind intensity before TCs landfall and post-landfall persistent precipitation induced by TCs in South China, employing the ERA5 reanalysis data and the best track data of 147 TCs from 1979 to 2018. The LTCPP was characterized by the frequency of persistent precipitation events during 0–72 h after TC landfall within a 500 km radius from the TC center. TCs were subdivided into weak and strong LTCPP groups based on the category-specific median of Frequency of 24 h Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Persistent Precipitation (FLTCPP24): 2705 h for TS, 6007 h for STS, and 6419 h for TY. A South China Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Monsoon Index (SCTCPM) was proposed to quantify monsoonal wind intensity derived from zonal winds at 850 hPa over two regions located in the Indian Ocean and Northwestern Pacific Ocean, within 5 d before TC landfall. The results reveal that SCTCPM < 9 m s−1 yields a 72% probability of weak LTCPP occurrence, which increases to 77% when SCTCPM < 6 m s−1. Conversely, SCTCPM > 18 m s−1 corresponds to an 80% probability of strong LTCPP. SCTCPM is an effective indicator for monsoonal wind that impacts LTCPP. Enhanced monsoonal winds, quantified by higher SCTCPM, result in post-landfall changes in horizontal wind speed, moisture transport, convective activity and upward motion, ultimately increasing LTCPP. This study deepens our understanding of the monsoon-TC relationship, emphasizing the crucial role of monsoonal wind in LTCPP in South China and offering valuable insights for disaster preparedness and risk mitigation.

Development of a monthly PM2.5 forecast model for Seoul, Korea, based on the dynamic climate forecast and a convolutional neural network algorithm

A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been developed to predict monthly concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in Seoul, Republic of Korea, during winter months (November through February). Seven meteorological variables influencing PM2.5 concentrations were selected as predictors: geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa, zonal and meridional winds, relative humidity and temperature at 850 hPa, and boundary layer height. These predictors were obtained from the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) for model construction and from the Korea Polar Prediction System (KPOPS) dynamic forecasts for operational predictions. From the 11-year ERA5 dataset for 2008–2020, one year was allocated for testing, while the remaining 10 years were randomly assigned for either training (80%) or validation (20%). This process was repeated until all 11 years were allocated for testing, resulting in 11 CNN models. The benchmark which used the ERA5 dataset as the predictors yielded a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.05 μg m−3, root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.41 μg m−3, Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of 0.85, and 71% hit rate in predicting the months of high PM2.5 concentrations (≥ 30 μg m−3) for the testing periods. The 11-CNN-model ensemble predictions using the KPOPS forecasts resulted in an MBE of 0.1 μg m−3, RMSE of 3.19 μg m−3, R of 0.74, and hit rate of 62.5% for the period 2008–2020. Considering that the average temporal correlation coefficients between the ERA5 and the KPOPS forecasts for the seven predictors ranged from 0.20 to 0.66, the CNN-based PM2.5 prediction model has demonstrated good performance in overcoming the adverse effects of the KPOPS forecast errors on predicting PM2.5 concentrations. The CNN model showed limitations for unusual period such as the COVID-19 period, November 2020 through February 2022, when the emissions in East Asia were substantially below their climatological normal levels. In conclusion, the CNN model developed in this study showed potential applicability to operational monthly PM2.5 concentration predictions for the years of normal emissions using solely meteorological data. This can provide professionals in various fields, such as health care and environmental science, with valuable insights for long-term planning.