Development of a monthly PM2.5 forecast model for Seoul, Korea, based on the dynamic climate forecast and a convolutional neural network algorithm

Abstract

A convolutional neural network (CNN) model has been developed to predict monthly concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in Seoul, Republic of Korea, during winter months (November through February). Seven meteorological variables influencing PM2.5 concentrations were selected as predictors: geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa, zonal and meridional winds, relative humidity and temperature at 850 hPa, and boundary layer height. These predictors were obtained from the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) for model construction and from the Korea Polar Prediction System (KPOPS) dynamic forecasts for operational predictions. From the 11-year ERA5 dataset for 2008–2020, one year was allocated for testing, while the remaining 10 years were randomly assigned for either training (80%) or validation (20%). This process was repeated until all 11 years were allocated for testing, resulting in 11 CNN models. The benchmark which used the ERA5 dataset as the predictors yielded a mean bias error (MBE) of 0.05 μg m−3, root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.41 μg m−3, Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of 0.85, and 71% hit rate in predicting the months of high PM2.5 concentrations (≥ 30 μg m−3) for the testing periods. The 11-CNN-model ensemble predictions using the KPOPS forecasts resulted in an MBE of 0.1 μg m−3, RMSE of 3.19 μg m−3, R of 0.74, and hit rate of 62.5% for the period 2008–2020. Considering that the average temporal correlation coefficients between the ERA5 and the KPOPS forecasts for the seven predictors ranged from 0.20 to 0.66, the CNN-based PM2.5 prediction model has demonstrated good performance in overcoming the adverse effects of the KPOPS forecast errors on predicting PM2.5 concentrations. The CNN model showed limitations for unusual period such as the COVID-19 period, November 2020 through February 2022, when the emissions in East Asia were substantially below their climatological normal levels. In conclusion, the CNN model developed in this study showed potential applicability to operational monthly PM2.5 concentration predictions for the years of normal emissions using solely meteorological data. This can provide professionals in various fields, such as health care and environmental science, with valuable insights for long-term planning.