Reference Year Research Articles

What will be the hydrogen and power demands of the process industry in a climate-neutral Germany?

The defossilization of industry has far-reaching implications regarding the future demand for hydrogen and other forms of energy. This paper presents and applies a fundamental bottom-up model that relies on techno-economic data of industrial production processes. Its aim is to identify, across a range of scenarios, the most cost-effective low-carbon options considering a variety of production systems. Subsequently, it derives the hydrogen and electricity demand that would result from the implementation of these least-cost low-carbon options in process industries in Germany. Aligning with the German government's target year for achieving climate neutrality, this study's reference year is 2045. The primary contribution lies in analyzing which hydrogen-based and direct electrification solutions would be cost-effective for a range of energy price levels under climate-neutral industrial production and what the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand would be. To this end, the methodology of this paper comprises the following steps: selection of the relevant industries (I), definition of conventional reference production systems and their low-carbon options (II), investigation and processing of the techno-economic data of the standardized production systems (III), establishment of a scenario framework (IV), determination of the least-cost low-carbon solution of a conventional reference production system under the scenario assumptions made (V), and estimation of the resulting hydrogen and electricity demand (VI). According to the results, the expected industrial hydrogen consumption in 2045 ranges from 265 TWh for higher hydrogen prices in or above the range of onshore wind-based green hydrogen supply costs, to up to 473 TWh for very low hydrogen prices corresponding to typical blue hydrogen production costs. Meanwhile, the direct electricity consumption of the process industries in the results ranges from 147 TWh for these rather low hydrogen prices to 338 TWh for the higher hydrogen prices in the region of or above the hydrogen supply costs from the electrolysis of energy from an onshore wind farm. Most of the break-even hydrogen prices that are relevant to the choice of low-carbon options are in the range of the benchmark purchase costs for blue hydrogen and green hydrogen produced from offshore wind power, which span between €40 per MWh and €97 per MWh.

CROPGRIDS: a global geo-referenced dataset of 173 crops

CROPGRIDS is a comprehensive global geo-referenced dataset providing area information for 173 crops for the year 2020, at a resolution of 0.05° (about 5.6 km at the equator). It represents a major update of the Monfreda et al. (2008) dataset (hereafter MRF), the most widely used geospatial dataset previously available, covering 175 crops with reference year 2000 at 10 km spatial resolution. CROPGRIDS builds on information originally provided in MRF and expands it using 27 selected published gridded datasets, subnational data of 52 countries obtained from National Statistical Offices, and the 2020 national-level statistics from FAOSTAT, providing more recent harvested and crop (physical) areas for 173 crops at regional, national, and global levels. The CROPGRIDS data advance the current state of knowledge on the spatial distribution of crops, providing useful inputs for modelling studies and sustainability analyses relevant to national and international processes.

Projected wind and solar energy potential in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in 2050

The ongoing energy transition from conventional fuels to renewable energy sources (RES) has given nations the potential to achieve levels of energy self-sufficiency previously thought unattainable. RES in the form of utility-scale solar and wind energy are currently the leading alternatives to fossil-fuel generation. Precise location siting that factors in efficiency limitations related to current and future climate variables is essential for enabling the green energy transition envisioned for 2050. In this context, understanding and mapping the intermittency of RES provides insights to energy system operators for their seamless integration into the grid. The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region has the potential to harness vast amounts of RES. The scarcity of observations from weather station networks and the lack of private sector incentives for transitioning to RES mean that relevant, supporting weather and climate studies have been limited. This study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to estimate the RES technical potential of EMME countries and map the hourly generation profiles per source and country, simulated for the reference year 2015 and considering future conditions. The findings indicate that by 2050, seven countries within the region could transform into net energy exporters, while the remaining nine might remain reliant on energy imports or fossil fuels. Egypt emerges as a “powerhouse”, potentially enjoying a potential surplus energy generation of 76 GW per hour, whereas the United Arab Emirates may face an annual deficit of 955 TWh. Further, we derived the hourly generation profiles for wind and solar during different seasons. Four dominant patterns were identified. We find a complementary relationship for six countries, and for four countries, a substitute relationship between solar and wind energy generation. Greece stands out with a near-constant wind energy source, which would facilitate its integration into the national grid.

An evaluation of the cost of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccine delivery in Zambia

BackgroundHuman papillomavirus (HPV) is a common sexually transmitted infection and the leading cause of cervical cancer. The HPV vaccine is a safe and effective way to prevent HPV infection. In Zambia, the vaccine is given during Child Health Week to girls aged 14 years who are in and out of school in two doses over two years. The focus of this evaluation was to establish the cost to administer a single dose of the vaccine as well as for full immunisation of two doses.MethodsThis work was part of a broader study on assessing HPV programme implementation in Zambia. For HPV costing aspect of the study, with a healthcare provider perspective and reference year of 2020, both top-down and micro-costing approaches were used for financial costing, depending on the cost data source, and economic costs were gathered as secondary data from Expanded Programme for Immunisation Costing and Financing Project (EPIC), except human resource costs which were gathered as primary data using existing Ministry of Health salary scales and reported time spent by different health cadres on activities related to HPV vaccination. Data was collected from eight districts in four provinces, mainly using a structured questionnaire, document reviews and key informant interviews with staff at national, provincial, district and health facility levels. Administrative coverage rates were obtained for each district.ResultsFindings show that schools made up 53.3% of vaccination sites, community outreach sites 30.9% and finally health facilities 15.8%. In terms of coverage for 2020, for the eight districts sampled, schools had the highest coverage at 96.0%. Community outreach sites were at 6.0% of the coverage and health facilities accounted for only 1.0% of the coverage. School based delivery had the lowest economic cost at USD13.2 per dose and USD 28.1 per fully immunised child (FIC). Overall financial costs for school based delivery were US$6.0 per dose and US$12.4 per FIC. Overall economic costs taking all delivery models into account were US$23.0 per dose and US$47.6 per FIC. The main financial cost drivers were microplanning, supplies, service delivery/outreach and vaccine co-financing; while the main economic cost drivers were human resources, building overhead and vehicles. Nurses, environmental health technicians and community-based volunteers spent the most time on HPV related vaccination activities compared to other cadres and represented the greatest human resource costs.ConclusionsThe financial cost of HPV vaccination in Zambia aligns favourably with similar studies conducted in other countries. However, the economic costs appear significantly higher than those observed in most international studies. This discrepancy underscores the substantial strain placed on healthcare resources by the program, a burden that often remains obscured. While the vaccine costs are currently subsidized through the generous support of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, it’s crucial to recognize that these expenses pose a considerable threat to long-term sustainability. Consequently, countries such as Zambia must proactively devise strategies to address this challenge.

Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix

The urgent need to mitigate the severe environmental impacts of climate change necessitates a transition to a low-carbon energy infrastructure, crucial for decarbonization and achieving global sustainability goals. This study investigates the decarbonization trajectories of five major economies and significant carbon emitters: the United States of America (USA), China, Japan, Germany, and India. We focus on evaluating two decarbonization scenarios for power generation. Scenario 1 explores the use of a generic storage system for reducing critical excess electricity production (CEEP), maintaining the same thermal power plant capacity as in the reference year 2021. In contrast, Scenario 2 models thermal power plants to meet the exact electricity demand without introducing a new electricity storage system. The primary aim is to assess the feasibility and implications of achieving a 100% share of renewable and nuclear energy by 2030 and 2050 in these countries. EnergyPLAN software was utilized to model and simulate the electricity systems of these countries. The two scenarios represent different degrees of renewable energy integration, demonstrating possible transitional pathways towards an environmentally friendly electricity generation system. The study provides a comparative analysis of the outcomes for each country, focusing on carbon emissions reduction and the impact on annual total costs in 2030 and 2050. Results show that by 2030, China could reduce its emissions by 88.5% and 85.14% in Scenarios 1 and 2, relative to 2021 levels. From the two scenarios considered in all the countries, India records the highest percentage reduction while Germany has the least percentage emission in reference to 2021, with a potential decrease of 90.63% and 52.42% respectively. By 2050, carbon emissions in the USA will be reduced by 83% and 79.8% using Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 decarbonization pathways. This research significantly contributes to understanding the decarbonization potential of global electricity generation. It provides vital data for policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders involved in developing sustainable energy policies.

Improving pre-emptive access to the kidney transplant waiting list between 2017 and 2021: assessment of a regional program in Aquitaine

Pre-emptive access to the kidney transplant (KT) waiting list remains limited in France, with only 3.9% of patients on pre-emptive KT and 5.6% of patients registered at the time of initiation of dialysis. A similar trend was observed in Aquitaine. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a regional program in terms of access to the waiting list for patients initiating a kidney replacement therapy (KRT). We included all patients assessed for registration on the list between 2017 and 2020, 2017 being the reference year and 2018 the beginning of the program. Using the CRISTAL and REIN registries, we assessed changes in the number of patients on the list at the time of initiation of dialysis or transplantation. The number of new assessed candidates increased gradually each year from 255 in 2017 to 352 in 2020 (+38%). The number of patients on the list sharply increased in 2018 from 229 in 2017 to 319 in 2018 (+39.3%) and then remained stable. At the initiation of KRT, the proportion of patients registered on the waiting list increased gradually from 7.1% in 2017 to 18.2% in 2020. The proportion of pre-emptive KT remained stable between 2017 and 2021 (around 7%) with a decrease in 2020 (4.6%). Approximately 60% of patients had a contraindication to transplantation throughout the study. This study showed that a regional program aimed at providing better information to healthcare professionals and patients and encouraging rapid assessment of transplant candidates could increase the rate of pre-emptive registration on the KT waiting list for eligible patients over 4 years.

Temple Dedication and Construction Texts of the Ancient Near East with Elapsed Years: Implications for Long Duration Chronologies

Ancient texts dedicating or commemorating temples that can be associated with archaeological remains such as architecture and inscriptions, along with identifiable kings who built or commemorated those temples and the specification of the elapsed number of years from a past event, are known from Mesopotamia, Egypt, and the Levant over the span of several centuries. Although the texts originate from differing religious, cultural, and geographic contexts and were recorded on various mediums, the similarity in content, style, and objective indicates a shared tradition and allows the grouping of these texts into a distinctive category. These temple construction and dedication texts document a king or kings involved in the construction, reconstruction, or remembrance of a temple, a deity with whom the temple was connected, the location of the temple, and the specific number of years elapsed between construction or dedication and another significant cultural or religious event. Known examples come from Assyria, Babylon, Egypt, Phoenicia, and Israel, spanning the 13th to the 2nd centuries BC, along with a text from ancient Rome that was likely influenced by this practice. Because the kings named are known from various historical documents and inscriptions, archaeological remains related to the temples have often been recovered; since the construction or dedication texts record elapsed years in reference to another event, these texts can be analyzed in regard to their viability as sources for the history and chronology of the ancient Near East in the context of religion and official records of the state. Investigation of these texts alongside king lists and temples reveals that temple construction and dedication texts of the ancient Near East that included mention of elapsed years provide valuable, detailed, and accurate information that can be used to identify the existence of ancient temples in time, corroborate periods of kingship or other important events, and contribute to understanding a method of historical chronology used by the ancients.

Summer drought weakens land surface cooling of tundra vegetation

Siberia experienced a prolonged heatwave in the spring of 2020, resulting in extreme summer drought and major wildfires in the North-Eastern Siberian lowland tundra. In the Arctic tundra, plants play a key role in regulating the summer land surface energy budget by contributing to land surface cooling through evapotranspiration. Yet we know little about how drought conditions impact land surface cooling by tundra plant communities, potentially contributing to high air temperatures through a positive plant-mediated feedback. Here we used high-resolution land surface temperature and vegetation maps based on drone imagery to determine the impact of an extreme summer drought on land surface cooling in the lowland tundra of North-Eastern Siberia. We found that land surface cooling differed strongly among plant communities between the drought year 2020 and the reference year 2021. Further, we observed a decrease in the normalized land surface cooling (measured as water deficit index) in the drought year 2020 across all plant communities. This indicates a shift towards an energy budget dominated by sensible heat fluxes, contributing to land surface warming. Overall, our findings suggest significant variation in land surface cooling among common Arctic plant communities in the North-Eastern Siberian lowland tundra and a pronounced effect of drought on all community types. Based on our results, we suggest discriminating between functional tundra plant communities when predicting the drought impacts on energy flux related processes such as land surface cooling, permafrost thaw and wildfires.

Physically 100 % renewable electricity supply through hybrid electricity storage – A top-down modelling study for the case of Austria

A top-down model calculation based on real generation and demand data is presented for the hypothetical case of 100 % renewable electricity generation combined with hybrid electricity storage infrastructure in the Austrian control area (9 million inhabitants, electric demand ∼70 TWh per year). To reach 100 % physical coverage by renewables, the actual wind and photovoltaic generation curves in the selected reference year of 2022 were scaled by a factor of 2.8 and 30, respectively. In the scope of the presented system are lithium-ion battery storage (cyclic efficiency 90 %), pumped hydro storage (70 %) and power-to-gas storage with subsequent re-electrification in gas turbine combined cycle plants operated as combined heat and power (CHP) system (30 %). Our core aspect lies in the optimized operation of the hybrid storage system, where the charging and discharging of the storage technology with higher cyclic efficiency is given priority. A straightforward cascading control algorithm is applied with individual elements functioning as simple proportional controllers. The results show how a 100 % renewable electricity system in Austria could be configured, partially building upon existing electricity generation infrastructure (pumped hydro and gas turbine combined cycle plants) and on the implementation of new lithium-ion battery storage with a total capacity of 100 GWh and new electrolysis infrastructure with a power of 5 to 10 GW. To overcome existing limitations of the presented model, an extension to a more complex model with spatial differentiation and consideration of electricity grid characteristics and constraints is recommended.

What is known, unknown, and needed to be known about damage caused by wild pigs

AbstractDamage assessments provide evidence for initiating and evaluating management programs that protect natural resources and human livelihoods against invasive species. Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) cause extensive damage in their native and non-native ranges, but the extent of current damage and efficacy of management of the damage (i.e., population control of wild pigs, exclusion fencing, etc.) remains poorly described. We conducted a systematic review of physical damage caused by wild pigs to summarize what is known and identify knowledge gaps for damage assessment. Wild pig damage assessments have been overwhelmingly qualitative (84% of studies) and measured differently across studies, which prevents the determination of typical damage amounts to a particular resource and comparison across studies. Key priorities going forward are to standardize damage assessments quantitatively and measure population density (or index of such) of wild pigs concurrently with damage assessments to determine the relationship between damage and population levels. We provide a framework for inferring damage in new areas and assessing the benefits of management—to evaluate and optimize landscape-scale management programs. Overall, we recommend future studies strive for: (1) report the amount of damages in a standardized fashion (e.g., area damaged/area surveyed), (2) evaluate and report the amount of damage relative to the density of wild pigs, and (3) when reporting economic costs of damages incurred and management actions, describe the economic valuation method used along with the year of reference for the valuation. Capturing these elements are necessary steps to predict the benefits of management for an area with particular profile of resources and wild pig density, even in areas where damage assessments are not available. Meeting these criteria with allow for more generalizable results that can inform managers across the nearly global distribution of wild pigs.

Drought impact on pharmaceuticals in surface waters in Europe: Case study for the Rhine and Elbe basins

Hydrological droughts are expected to increase in frequency and severity in many regions due to climate change. Over the last two decades, several droughts occurred in Europe, including the 2018-drought, which showed major adverse impacts for nature and different sectoral uses (e.g. irrigation, drinking water). While drought impacts on water quantity are well studied, little understanding exists on the impacts on water quality, particularly regarding pharmaceutical concentrations in surface waters. This study investigates the impact of the 2018-drought on concentrations of four selected pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, diclofenac and metoprolol) in surface waters in Europe, with a major focus on the Elbe and Rhine rivers. Monitoring data were analysed for the period of 2010–2020 to estimate the spatiotemporal patterns of pharmaceuticals and assess the concentration responses in rivers during the 2018-drought compared to reference years. Our results indicate an overall deterioration in water quality, which can be attributed to the extremely low flow and higher water temperatures (∼ + 1.5 °C and + 2.0 °C in Elbe and Rhine, respectively) during the 2018-drought. Our results show an increase in the concentrations of carbamazepine, sulfamethoxazole, and metoprolol, but reduced concentrations of diclofenac during the 2018-drought. Significant increases in carbamazepine concentrations (+45 %) were observed at 3/6 monitoring stations in the upstream part of the Elbe, which was mainly attributed to less dilution of chemical loads from wastewater treatment plants under drought conditions. However, reduced diclofenac concentrations could be attributed to increased degradation processes under higher water temperatures (R2 = 0.60). Moreover, the rainfed-dominated Elbe exhibited more severe water quality deterioration than the snowmelt-dominated Rhine river, as the Elbe's reduction in dilution capacity was larger. Our findings highlight the need to account for the impacts of climate change and associated increases in droughts in water quality management plans, to improve the provision of water of good quality for ecosystems and sectoral needs.

Environmental Impact of e-Fuels via the Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cell (SOEC) and Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis (FTS) Route for Use in Germany

This paper examines the current and prospective greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of e-fuels produced via electrolysis and Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FTS) for the years 2021, 2030, and 2050 for use in Germany. The GHG emissions are determined by a scenario approach as a combination of a literature-based top-down and bottom-up approach. Considered process steps are the provision of feedstocks, electrolysis (via solid oxide co-electrolysis; SOEC), synthesis (via Fischer–Tropsch synthesis; FTS), e-crude refining, eventual transport to, and use in Germany. The results indicate that the current GHG emissions for e-fuel production in the exemplary export countries Saudi Arabia and Chile are above those of conventional fuels. Scenarios for the production in Germany lead to current GHG emissions of 2.78–3.47 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2021 as the reference year and 0.064–0.082 kgCO2-eq/L e-fuel in 2050. With a share of 58–96%, according to the respective scenario, the electrolysis is the main determinant of the GHG emissions in the production process. The use of additional renewable energy during the production process in combination with direct air capture (DAC) are the main leverages to reduce GHG emissions.

Test Reference Year for wave energy studies: Generation and validation

In a perspective of impoverishment of the fossil fuel and preservation of the natural environment, the sea wave energy is being increasingly regarded as alternative and promising resource. A key aspect to take in consideration for the deployment of Wave Energy Converters is the local characterization of the wave climate. In this contribute, a methodology for the calculation and validation of a site-specific Test Reference Year (TRY), from a multiyear dataset such ERA-Interim and ERA-5, to be used in wave energy conversion studies is proposed. Comparison of the two datasets with observed data gives ERA-5 as the best dataset.The methodology applied for the TRY generation has proven to be very effective, with the daily sum of Hs and Tm being the most effective indices for the TRY generation and in general Hs about twice more important than Tm. Once obtained, the TRY is applied in order to force an implementation of the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model in an area of the central Adriatic Sea to characterize the area.

Analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of Buxus hyrcana Pojark defoliation using spaceborne satellite data

Abstract This study aims to assess the spatio-temporal defoliation dynamics of box tree, one of the few evergreen species of the Hyrcanian Forests. For this, we integrated multi-temporal leaf-off optical Sentinel-2 and radar Sentinel-1 data from 2017 to 2021 with elevation data. A state-of-the-art sample migration approach was used to generate annual reference samples of two categories (defoliated and healthy box tree) for a set of target years 2017–2020. This approach is based on field samples of the reference year 2021 and two similarity measures, the Euclidean distance and the spectral angle distance. The analysis of spectral and radar profiles showed that the migrated samples were well representative of both defoliated and healthy box trees categories. The migrated samples were then used for spatially mapping the two classes using support vector machine classification. The results of support vector machine classification indicated a large extent of box tree mortality. The most significant changes from healthy box trees to defoliated ones, or vice versa, occurred during the years 2017 and 2018. In the consecutive years of 2019, 2020, and 2021, no significant changes in the distribution of healthy or defoliated box trees were observed. The statistical assessment also revealed that mortality of evergreen understory tree species can be mapped with practically sufficient overall accuracies reaching from 84% (in 2017) to 91%–92% (in 2020 and 2021) using spaceborne remote sensing data. This information using freely accessible satellite data can benefit forest managers responsible for monitoring landscapes affected by the box moth and facilitates the identification of optimal control programs.

Selection of moisture reference year for freeze-thaw damage assessment of historic masonry walls under future climate: A simulation-based approach

Today, there is an increased research effort on improving energy efficiency in heritage buildings through retrofit measures. Hygrothermal simulations tools are often used to assess the long-term performance of building envelopes and determine whether they are suitable for interior insulation. To reduce the high computation time and cost incurred with these simulations, a moisture reference year (MRY) is typically selected based on long-term annual climatic conditions. Simulation results obtained under MRYs are assumed to represent the long-term performance. However, when assessing the risk to freeze-thaw (FT) damage of historic masonry walls, methods selecting climate-based MRYs have failed to represent the actual performance – determined based on results from simulations over the 31 consecutive years. This paper attempts to find an alternative method to select MRYs, based on the hygrothermal simulations of specific constructions. First, a parametric analysis was proposed to identify the parameters that have the greatest influence on FT damage. Then, simulations are performed for a continuous 31-year period and for each single year. A comparison of their results suggests that there is no accumulative effect on the annual freeze-thaw cycles; and therefore, MRYs can be selected as the single year with the 93rd percentile FT damage severity or the worst year commonly found between masonry walls pre and post retrofit. The application of MRYs was then verified for different insulation types and thicknesses. Results showed that simulation-based MRYs are construction and orientation dependent; however, they are reliable to use for retrofitting design decision making.

Participatory modelling of scenarios to restore nitrogen cycles in a nutrient-saturated area

This paper aims to find socially acceptable solutions of circularity as measure to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and prevent environmental damage by combining participatory modelling and scenario Substance Flow Analyses (SFA). A local perspective was taken on the agro-food-waste system in the animal production-dominated German district Cleves. Three scenarios were programmed as Monte Carlo simulation of SFA with stakeholder input regarding crop allocation, livestock composition, livestock reduction, and manure allocation following the elimination of feed imports. The three scenarios either utilized the unaltered stakeholder input (PS), altered crop allocation to satisfy the demand for feed (CBS), or adjusted the livestock numbers to match the locally available feed (LBS). In the reference year (2020) agricultural losses amounted to 68 kg N year−1 ha−1 agricultural land and 116 kg N in feed was imported year−1 ha−1 agricultural land. In the PS feed import elimination led to deficits in feed availability. The LBS showed the biggest reduction of agricultural N losses and improved N use efficiency (+6 %), however agricultural losses were still high (50 kg N year−1 ha−1 agricultural land). The results show a limited effect of feed import elimination on N losses if no further measures are taken, such as reduced consumption of animal-based products. Further, the study shows that it is important to improve stakeholders' knowledge about approaches to circular agro-food-waste systems. The discrepancy between stakeholder visions and N circularity provide policy makers with the recommendation to improve stakeholders' visions of a circular agro-food-waste system.

Mill and Landbase Attributes Condition Response Rates to Timber Product Output Surveys in the Western United States

Abstract Since the 1940s, the USDA Forest Service has surveyed roundwood receiving facilities to report on timber products output (TPO). The TPO program provides information on forest removals, processing capacity, and wood product markets, complementing inventory estimates of status and change. The program adopted an annual state-level probability sampling design in 2019 and this research evaluates rates of unit nonresponse (UN) in surveys of eleven western states over reference years 2019–2021. The overall response rate for this region and period was 43.7%, which appears low relative to prior western surveys. Response rates also differed significantly by state, facility type, and facility size class. Furthermore, distributions of forestland ownership and harvest levels over potential facility feedstock areas differed significantly between respondents and nonrespondents for an important class of large sawmills. Taken together, these results suggest UN is substantially degrading the precision of western TPO surveys and may be inducing appreciable bias in current estimators. At the same time, response rates were significantly higher where responses were obtained in previous years, suggesting a positive facilitation effect. The implications of these rates and patterns in UN for TPO survey design and estimation are discussed. Study Implications: The USDA Forest Service estimates timber products output (TPO) from US forests using sample surveys of roundwood receiving facilities. In TPO samples of western states for the period 2019–2021, the average response rate was only 43.7%. The level of unit nonresponse will substantially degrade the precision of TPO estimates at state and regional levels, while the observed patterns may induce bias. Further research is needed to identify the bias and precision of current and alternative estimators and to investigate survey implementation factors or design enhancements that would allow more intensive follow-up efforts to focus on a smaller number of nonrespondents.

Ensuring greenhouse gas reductions from electric vehicles compared to hybrid gasoline vehicles requires a cleaner U.S. electricity grid

Emissions from electric vehicles depend on when they are charged and which power plants meet the electricity demand. We introduce a new metric, the critical emissions factors (CEFs), as the emissions intensity of electricity that needs to be achieved when charging to ensure electric vehicles achieve lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions parity with some of the most efficient gasoline hybrid vehicles across the United States. We use a consequential framework, consider 2018 as our reference year, and account for the effects of temperature and drive cycle on vehicle efficiency to account for regional climate and use conditions. We find that the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Bolt battery electric vehicles reduce lifecycle emissions relative to Toyota Prius and Honda Accord gasoline hybrids in most of the United States. However, in rural counties of the Midwest and the South, power grid marginal emissions reductions of up to 208 gCO2/kWh are still needed for these electric vehicles to have lower lifecycle emissions than gasoline hybrids. Except for the Northeast and Florida, the longer-range Tesla Model S battery-electric luxury sedan has higher emissions than the hybrids across the U.S., and the emissions intensity of the grid would need to decrease by up to 342 gCO2/kWh in some locations for it to achieve carbon parity with hybrid gasoline vehicles. Finally, we conclude that coal retirements and stricter standards on fossil fuel generators are more effective in the medium term at reducing consequential electric vehicle emissions than expansion of renewable capacity.

A catalog of the Chamaemyiidae of Chile (Diptera: Lauxanioidea).

A catalog of the Chamaemyiidae of Chile is provided. We present all valid names and synonyms for the 14 species and eight genera and subgenera distributed in the country, including information about name, author, year of publication, page number, type-species, type depository, type locality and references. The chamaemyiid fauna of Chile is small, with the largest genus, Ortalidina Blanchard having only five species. Species of the subgenus Xenoleucopis Malloch of the genus Leucopis Meigen (even if referred to only as sp.) are the most cited due to their apparent potential as biological control agents, or the many works recording their biology. The geographical distribution of the different species was compiled from bibliographic data and revised collections.

Outcome of emergency patients transported by ambulance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Osaka Prefecture, Japan: a population-based descriptive study.

The novel corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic occurred worldwide. Although an excessive burden was placed on emergency medical institutions treating urgent and severe patients, its impact on patient outcome remains unknown. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 on the emergency medical services (EMS) system and patient outcomes in Osaka Prefecture, Japan. This was a retrospective descriptive study with a study period from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2021. We included patients who were transported by ambulance and had cleaned data that was recorded in the ORION system. The study endpoints were the number of patients transported by ambulance and the number of deaths among these patients in each month. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the EMS system, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using 2019 as the reference year. Mortalities were evaluated based on deaths in the emergency department and deaths at 21 days after hospitalization. The numbers of patients transported by ambulance were 500,194 in 2019, 443,321 in 2020 (IRR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.87-0.88), and 448,054 in 2021 (IRR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.89-0.90). In 2019, the number of patients transported by ambulance and who died in the emergency departments was 4,980, compared to 5,485 in 2020 (IRR: 1.10, 95% CI; 1.06-1.44) and 5,925 in 2021 (IRR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.15-1.24). In 2019, the number of patients who died within 21 days after hospitalization was 11,931, compared to 11,913 in 2020 (IRR; 1.00, 95% CI; 0.98-1.03) and 13,376 in 2021 (IRR; 1.12, 95% CI; 1.09-1.15). The COVID-19 pandemic decreased the number of ambulance requests and worsened mortality of patients transported by ambulance in Osaka Prefecture during 2021.