Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix

Abstract

The urgent need to mitigate the severe environmental impacts of climate change necessitates a transition to a low-carbon energy infrastructure, crucial for decarbonization and achieving global sustainability goals. This study investigates the decarbonization trajectories of five major economies and significant carbon emitters: the United States of America (USA), China, Japan, Germany, and India. We focus on evaluating two decarbonization scenarios for power generation. Scenario 1 explores the use of a generic storage system for reducing critical excess electricity production (CEEP), maintaining the same thermal power plant capacity as in the reference year 2021. In contrast, Scenario 2 models thermal power plants to meet the exact electricity demand without introducing a new electricity storage system. The primary aim is to assess the feasibility and implications of achieving a 100% share of renewable and nuclear energy by 2030 and 2050 in these countries. EnergyPLAN software was utilized to model and simulate the electricity systems of these countries. The two scenarios represent different degrees of renewable energy integration, demonstrating possible transitional pathways towards an environmentally friendly electricity generation system. The study provides a comparative analysis of the outcomes for each country, focusing on carbon emissions reduction and the impact on annual total costs in 2030 and 2050. Results show that by 2030, China could reduce its emissions by 88.5% and 85.14% in Scenarios 1 and 2, relative to 2021 levels. From the two scenarios considered in all the countries, India records the highest percentage reduction while Germany has the least percentage emission in reference to 2021, with a potential decrease of 90.63% and 52.42% respectively. By 2050, carbon emissions in the USA will be reduced by 83% and 79.8% using Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 decarbonization pathways. This research significantly contributes to understanding the decarbonization potential of global electricity generation. It provides vital data for policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders involved in developing sustainable energy policies.