Worst Flood Research Articles

RAINFALL ANALYSIS OF THE KELANTAN BIG YELLOW FLOOD 2014

In December 2014, Kelantan was hit by the worst flood ever recorded. Did the rainfall exceed historical records, how rare are they and what causes them? This paper answers these questions. Estimation of the return periods uses the GEV distribution model and stations with more than 25 years records. Spatial distribution plots of the cumulated rainfall depths were constructed using IDW interpolation method. Four major outcomes are: 1) Spatial rainfall patterns show high amounts of rainfall accumulated by phases (Phase 1- daily rainfall up to 300 mm; Phase 2- daily rainfall up to 500 mm); 2) record breaking rainfall events occurred at 9 stations significantly at Gunung Gagau (1598.9 mm compared to 976.5 mm 7-day cumulated rainfall). Many stations upstream of the river basin experienced ARIs near and over 100 years and several experienced more than 200 years; and 4) Enhanced rainfall were experienced due to the combined effect of the monsoon season, Madden Julian Oscillation and temperature below anomalies at the Siberian High

Satellite-based assessment of the catastrophic Jhelum floods of September 2014, Jammu & Kashmir, India

ABSTRACTThe state of Jammu and Kashmir in North India experienced one of the worst floods in the past 60 years, during the first week of September 2014. In the present study, multi-temporal synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images acquired from Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) satellite RISAT-1 and Canadian satellite Radarsat-2 during the peak flood period (08th–23rd September 2014) are used for extraction of flood disaster footprints, mapping spatial and temporal dynamics of flood inundation and assessing the disaster impact. With the aid of pre- and post-flood satellite images, coupled with hydro-meteorological data, the unprecedented flood situation is analyzed. It is estimated that about 557 km2 of the Kashmir Valley's geographical area was inundated. Bandipora, Pulwama, Srinagar, Baramulla and Budgam were the worst flood affected districts, having more than 50 km2 of their area affected by flood waters. Of the total inundated area, about 80% of the area under agricultural activity was submerged, followed by built-up areas constituting about 12% of geographical area. About 22 lakh people in 287 villages were affected by floods. The flood waters persisted in the northern and central part of the valley for more than two weeks.

A survey of flood disaster preparedness among hospitals in the central region of Thailand

BackgroundIn 2011, Thailand was affected by the one of the worst flood disasters in recent times. Hospitals in Thailand were faced with the challenge of managing the health impacts from this natural disaster. The purpose of this study was to assess flood disaster preparedness among hospitals in the central region of Thailand. MethodsA survey questionnaire was given to twenty-seven key people responsible for hospital disaster preparedness that experienced disruptions to health services (severely, moderately and slightly) during the flood disaster in 2011 in the central region of Thailand. ResultsOf the twenty-four participating hospitals, not one had satisfied the standards in all the dimensions of flood disaster preparedness. All respondent hospitals were deficiently prepared with regard to surge capacity, the management of healthcare services and the management of the supporting systems. The availability of supplies and equipment were found to be in place but preparations were found to be inadequate in organizing staff at all participating hospitals. Trained staff members regarding disaster response were reported to be present in all respondent hospitals. Hospitals that experienced slightly disruptions to their health services did not elect to do any exercises to meet the set standards. None of the hospitals that experienced slightly disruptions to their health services performed any evaluation and improvement in terms of disaster preparedness. ConclusionsMany hospitals were not up to standard in terms of disaster preparedness. Hospitals should prioritize disaster preparedness to fulfill their responsibility during crisis situations and improve their flood disaster preparedness.

Demand and Supply of Crude Palm Oil for Biodiesel Production towards Food and Energy Security

Energy and food security are two key national policies and agenda of Thailand. The Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy has modified a 15-year (2008-2021) Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP). According to the modified AEDP, the share of renewable and alternative energy consumption should increase to 25% by 2021. The latest policy aims to promote the biodiesel consumption and production by 5.97 million liters/day within 2021, up from its previous plan of 4.50 million liters/day while nowadays production capacity is 1.62 million liters/day. The current and anticipated production of biodiesel require raw materials, notably crude palm oil (CPO) from oil palm plantations. This paper presents a feasibility study, with respect to the AEDP plan, for biodiesel production by using domestic fresh fruit oil palm as a raw material. Demand and supply are analyzed based on statistical modeling and forecasting techniques, as well as GIS spatial analysis. The results show that the domestic CPO consumption for cooking palm oil will be 1.02 million tons/year, while biodiesel production will be 1.67 million tons/year in 2021. This corresponds to an oil palm plantation area of 11,152 km2 in 2021. Based on GIS spatial analysis along with land-use database and other relevant databases, it was found that the suitable area for palm oil plantation in Thailand is 14,639 km2, which is sufficient for domestic demand and consumption. The suitable area consists of 9,664 km2 for quite suitable and 4,975 km2 for medium suitable. However, the government should provide the guidelines, along with pro-active and supportive policies for worst case scenarios, e.g. drought and flood leading to the insufficient raw material, in order to reduce the negative impacts of biodiesel production for domestic demand and consumption.

Association between Floods and Acute Cardiovascular Diseases: A Population-Based Cohort Study Using a Geographic Information System Approach.

Background: Floods represent a serious threat to human health beyond the immediate risk of drowning. There is few data on the potential link between floods and direct consequences on health such as on cardiovascular health. This study aimed to explore the impact of one of the worst floods in the history of Quebec, Canada on acute cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Methods: A cohort study with a time series design with multiple control groups was built with the adult population identified in the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System. A geographic information system approach was used to define the study areas. Logistic regressions were performed to compare the occurrence of CVD between groups. Results: The results showed a 25%–27% increase in the odds in the flooded population in spring 2011 when compared with the population in the same area in springs 2010 and 2012. Besides, an increase up to 69% was observed in individuals with a medical history of CVD. Conclusion: Despite interesting results, the association was not statistically significant. A possible explanation to this result can be that the population affected by the flood was probably too small to provide the statistical power to answer the question, and leaves open a substantial possibility for a real and large effect.

Flooding risks and housing markets: a spatial hedonic analysis for La Plata City

AbstractOn 2 April 2013 a major flood struck the City of La Plata, Argentina, killing 89 people and displacing thousands of others. That event, the worst flood the city has suffered in the past 100 years, prompted plans for a new hydraulic infrastructure. Although such an investment is necessary, little is known about its benefits. This paper intends to shed some light on this issue by estimating the willingness to pay to avoid the risk of experiencing a flooding event. For this purpose, we have taken thousands of real estate prices in the La Plata Metropolitan Area and combined them with a high-resolution flood risks map to estimate spatial hedonic price models. The results show significant price discounting for properties in flood-prone areas.

Floodplain Delineation Using HECRAS Model—A Case Study of Surat City

Surat city, the commercial capital of Gujarat state, India is situated at latitude 21°06’ to 21°15’ N and longitude 72°45' to 72°54'E on the bank of river Tapi and is affected by flood once in every five years since last hundred years. Present study describes the application of HEC-RAS model with integration of GIS for delineation of flood plain. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of Surat city is used as main input for flood inundation mapping. River section near Nehru Bridge is used as sample case to simulate flood flow. Discharges equal to food return period for 25 and 32 (worst flood year) have been used for investigation of flood scenario. Outcome of the research clearly indicates that most of the area of the Surat city is submerged for a depth of 2.5 to 4.0 m when the discharge released from Ukai dam equals to return period of 32 years (25768.09 Cumecs).

Forgetting Flooding? : Post-disaster Livelihood and Embedded Remembrance in Suburban Santa Fe, Argentina

Flooding has long been a recurrent problem in the Argentinian city of Santa Fe, mainly affecting the poverty-stricken suburban outskirts. In 2003 one of the worst floods ever occurred, which also affected residents in the middle income sectors who had never been flooded before and who reacted with an extraordinary process of commemoration and protest against the government for its lax disaster management. Paradoxically, most other past disastrous floods in the city’s history seem to dwell in the shadows of social oblivion. Drawing on ethnographic fieldwork in the years 2004–2011, this article analyzes how local flood memories are made through daily life practices and places in the suburban outskirts, more than through public commemorations, which has implications for vulnerability and risk.

Malaysia in 2015: Crises of Confidence

In his 2015 New Year message to the nation, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak called 2014 the most challenging year of his career, with the twin airline tragedies — the disappearance of MH370 in March and the downing of MH17 in July in Ukraine — and the worst floods to hit the country in decades, which displaced more than 200,000 people, dampening the country's economic outlook. But 2015 proved that Najib may have spoken too soon. At home, Malaysia and its embattled Prime Minister spent most of 2015 muddling through a daunting set of political, economic and social challenges, all made worse by the long shadow of one of the country's biggest scandals directly implicating Najib himself. And though 2015 was an important year for Malaysia's regional and international diplomacy, with the country's chairmanship of ASEAN and a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the spillover from its domestic politics along with a series of crises put a dent on some otherwise notable achievements. Political Turmoil and Turbulence For much of the year, Malaysia was consumed by allegations that Najib had mismanaged funds linked to debt-ridden state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB). 1MDB had long been under assault, weighed down by 42 billion ringgit ($11.4 billion) in debt. But the scandal truly rocked the country following a 3 July report by the Wall Street Journal which disclosed that investigators had found that nearly $700 million from entities linked to 1MDB was deposited into Najib's private bank account. Najib denied using government funds for personal gain. But revelations — including the fact that the money had come from an unspecified Middle East donor prior to Malaysia's 2013 general elections — only raised more questions in what some began calling the biggest scandal in Malaysia's history. Some expected the 1MDB scandal to be the death knell of Najib, especially since his approval ratings in February had already plunged to their lowest levels since he assumed office in 2009. Indeed, there was initial speculation about his removal either by opponents within his party, the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), or through a no-confidence vote tabled in parliament. Yet Najib turned out to be far more ruthless and resilient than his opponents anticipated.

Model simulations of heavy precipitation in Kashmir, India, in September 2014

Jammu and Kashmir in north India experienced one of the worst floods during first week of September 2014, due to unprecedented and intense rains. A cyclonic circulation moved northward and intensified between 4 and 7 September, as a result of which unprecedented very heavy rainfall occurred in the region. The main objectives of this study were to simulate this extreme rainfall event using high-resolution regional model and to document role of cloud microphysics on the simulations. A set of experiments have been carried out using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by configuring it with two nested domains with horizontal resolution of 18 and 6 km. The model was initialized with initial conditions of 00UTC of 2, 3 and 4 September 2014. For each initial condition, two set of numerical experiments were carried out with different cloud microphysics processes. While one set of run used WSM3 scheme, the other set used WSM6 scheme. It is found that the WRF model simulated a stronger cyclonic circulation when WSM scheme with graupels was used. The rainfall amount is also more in these experiments than those with WSM3 scheme. However, the cyclonic system is simulated to the east of the observed location in all the forecasts. The forecast skill is better with lesser lead time, i.e., the WRF model simulations were better when the model runs started from 4 September instead of earlier initial conditions. Examination of MODIS snow cover area suggests that a large mountainous area in catchment of Jhelum and its tributaries was covered with snow on 6 and 7 September 2014. This snow melted very fast, and by 8 September, most of the snow had melted. The WRF model also simulated good amount of snow in the mountains, but the location of maximum snow is to the east of observed location.

Governance beyond the government: Responding to a reactionary flood governance regime in Ayutthaya, Thailand

The 2011 flood has left a deep impression on many in Thailand. Many in Ayutthaya, the capital city of Ayutthaya province, remember it as the worst flood in living memory. While the central government was generally faulted for the apparent neglect of Ayutthaya at the expense of Bangkok, anger was largely directed towards the local government for releasing misleading and conflicting information prior to the flood, and lacking organization during the event. With the 2011 flood as the empirical anchor, this paper reveals the reactive nature of the decentralized disaster governance in Ayutthaya, and argues that this is an extension of the flood management strategy endorsed by the central government. I will further show that without the involvement of non-state actors, it would had been even more difficult, if not impossible, for the local government to cope with the 2011 flood. While the local government has since established a disaster management office, beyond the (small) monetary compensation many received after the 2011 flood, there have been few actions involving the people have taken place. This reinforces the sense of a largely reactionary flood governance regime.Next, I argue that this perceived lack of initiatives on the part of the local government has engendered further decentralization of flood governance in the small city of Ayutthaya. In their preparation for future floods, the people of Ayutthaya are enacting a form of flood governance with little involvement from the local government. Reclaiming their roles in the flood management process, people are developing personalized and neighbourhood-based adaptive strategies for dealing with future floods. This involves the establishment of informal networks for shelter and the distribution of supplies in case of future floods. In light of this, somewhat ironically, the inadequacies of the local government have productively encouraged the active participation of the people in flood management.

Calgary's Glenmore Water Treatment Plant: Historical Beauty and Modern Technology

The Glenmore Water Treatment Plant is a highly efficient and architecturally significant structure that has supplied high‐quality drinking water to the city of Calgary, Alta., Canada, for 82 years. The advanced treatment technology and dedicated staff allowed the plant to maintain drinking water quality in 2013 when the city saw the worst flood in its recorded history.

Historical reconstruction of organic carbon inputs to the East China Sea inner shelf: Implications for anthropogenic activities and regional climate variability

A gravity core collected from the East China Sea (ECS) inner shelf was analyzed for elemental and stable isotopic composition, lignin-phenols, and sedimentary pigments to investigate changes of organic carbon (OC) inputs during the past two centuries. In particular, we examined the linkages between terrestrial and marine OC inputs with climate variability and anthropogenic activities. The decrease of terrestrial OC contribution (from 41% to 28%) and increasing diagenetic indices of lignin-phenols (P/(S + V): from 0.12 to 0.22; 3,5-Bd/V: from 0.03 to 0.09) after the 1970s were possibly attributed to intensified deforestation, dam construction, and channel erosion. Lignin content (Λ8) ranged from 0.35 mg/100 mg OC to 6.92 mg/100 mg OC, with lower values corresponding to the worst flooding events in the Changjiang watershed and weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), while higher Λ8 was more correlated to the strengthening of EAWM. This indicates that terrestrial inputs to Zhe-Min Coast are different from those in Changjiang Estuary during flooding events and strongly linked with regional climate variability. The total contents of sedimentary chloropigments (i.e. pheophorbide-a, pheophytin-a, pyropheophytin-a, sterol chlorin esters, and carotenol chlorin esters) ranged from 663.4 to 74.9 nmol g−1 OC, and decreased exponentially downwards. Sedimentary chloropigments that were used to document historical change of phytoplankton biomass were decoupled with historical changes of Changjiang riverine nutrient inputs but corresponded well to the fluctuation of regional climate variability. Higher phytoplankton biomasses usually were observed during positive phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and/or warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and lower algal biomass usually corresponded to the negative phase of PDO and/or cold ENSO events.

QF2011: a protocol to study the effects of the Queensland flood on pregnant women, their pregnancies, and their children's early development.

BackgroundRetrospective studies suggest that maternal exposure to a severe stressor during pregnancy increases the fetus’ risk for a variety of disorders in adulthood. Animal studies testing the fetal programming hypothesis find that maternal glucocorticoids pass through the placenta and alter fetal brain development, particularly the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. However, there are no prospective studies of pregnant women exposed to a sudden-onset independent stressor that elucidate the biopsychosocial mechanisms responsible for the wide variety of consequences of prenatal stress seen in human offspring. The aim of the QF2011 Queensland Flood Study is to fill this gap, and to test the buffering effects of Midwifery Group Practice, a form of continuity of maternity care.Methods/designIn January 2011 Queensland, Australia had its worst flooding in 30 years. Simultaneously, researchers in Brisbane were collecting psychosocial data on pregnant women for a randomized control trial (the M@NGO Trial) comparing Midwifery Group Practice to standard care. We invited these and other pregnant women to participate in a prospective, longitudinal study of the effects of prenatal maternal stress from the floods on maternal, perinatal and early childhood outcomes. Data collection included assessment of objective hardship and subjective distress from the floods at recruitment and again 12 months post-flood. Biological samples included maternal bloods at 36 weeks pregnancy, umbilical cord, cord blood, and placental tissues at birth. Questionnaires assessing maternal and child outcomes were sent to women at 6 weeks and 6 months postpartum. The protocol includes assessments at 16 months, 2½ and 4 years. Outcomes include maternal psychopathology, and the child’s cognitive, behavioral, motor and physical development. Additional biological samples include maternal and child DNA, as well as child testosterone, diurnal and reactive cortisol.DiscussionThis prenatal stress study is the first of its kind, and will fill important gaps in the literature. Analyses will determine the extent to which flood exposure influences the maternal biological stress response which may then affect the maternal-placental-fetal axis at the biological, biochemical, and molecular levels, altering fetal development and influencing outcomes in the offspring. The role of Midwifery Group Practice in moderating effects of maternal stress will be tested.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-015-0539-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Anthropogenic footprint of climate change in the June 2013 northern India flood

During 13–17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods in history and massive landslides, resulting in more than 5000 casualties and a huge loss of property. In this study, meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979–2012. Attribution analysis was performed to identify the natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate anomalies using the historical single-forcing experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. In addition, regional modeling experiments were carried out to quantify the role of the long-term climate trends in affecting the rainfall magnitude of the June 2013 event. It was found that (a) northern India has experienced increasingly large rainfall in June since the late 1980s, (b) the increase in rainfall appears to be associated with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves, and (c) the phasing of such amplified short waves is tied to increased loading of green-house gases and aerosols. In addition, a regional modeling diagnosis attributed 60–90 % of rainfall amounts in the June 2013 event to post-1980 climate trends.

Detrital phosphorus as a proxy of flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin

In this study, sediment grain size (MGS), specific surface area (SSA), total organic carbon (TOC) contents, C/N molar ratios, stable carbon isotope, and P species in a sediment core, collected from the East China Sea (ECS) inner-shelf were measured to explore the applicability of detrital phosphorus (De-P) as a potential indicator of past flooding events in the Changjiang River Basin (CRB). In particular, we examined the linkages between the evolution of floods with regional climate changes and anthropogenic activities in the CRB. Peaks of De-P concentrations in sediments corresponded well with the worst flooding events of the CRB over the past two centuries (e.g., 1850s, 1860s, 1900s, 1920s, 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s). Moreover, De-P also corresponded well with the extreme hypoxic events in 1981 and 1998 in the Changjiang Estuary as indicated by Mo/Al ratios, indicating potential linkages between De-P as a flooding proxy to flood-induced hypoxia events in this region. In addition, a robust relationship was found among De-P, the floods in 1950s, 1980s, and 2000s of the CRB, the intensive El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the abnormally weak East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the warm phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), suggesting that De-P also provided insights to linkages between regional climate change and flooding events in this region.

FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA: ROLE OF REMOTE SENSING AND GIS

The worst flooding that ever hit Bosnia was in May 2014. The official estimates indicate that over 1.5 million people were affected in Bosnia and Serbia after a week of flooding. The assessments of the damage in Bosnia go up to €2billion of euro. The loss in floods is estimated 5 to 10% of GDP (as per WorldBank estimate). The effective floodplain management is a combination of the corrective and preventative measures for reducing flood damage. These measures require integrating data from a variety of sources, including zoning, subdivision, or building requirements, and the special-purpose floodplain ordinances.There are varieties of tools to generate a flood forecasting model to identify the potentially affected zones, so as to prioritize for remediation or the damage assessment. Furthermore, it is possible to analyze the time-related data and to explore trends and phenomena, to conduct the historical analysis and ―what–if‖ scenarios, and to track and monitor events such as excessive rainfall, track water levels, etc. Bosnia is just starting to develop these tools and methods and this could be the way to improve capability to tackle such natural disasters. This paper describes some applications of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood hazard zones and flood shelters and are therefore important tools for planners and decision makers. The purpose is to describe a simple and efficient methodology to accurately delineate flood inundated areas, flood-hazard areas, and suitable areas for flood shelter to minimize flood impacts.

Floods and Spillovers: Households after the 2011 Great Flood in Thailand

AbstractIn 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flood ever. Using repeated waves of the Thai Household Socio-Economic Survey, we analyze the flood’s economic impacts. In 2012, households answered a...

Infection Control in the Indo-Pak Subcontinent: Averting the Aftermath of the Worst Flooding in 60 Years

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Simulation of Tsunami Hazards Affecting the East Cape Region, New Zealand

The east coast of New Zealand is known for being exposed to a variety of tsunami sources, both those arising from the nearby Hikurangi subduction zone and its associated crustal faults, and those arising from more distant parts of the Pacific. Using numerical simulations with a parallelized computer model, we assess the tsunami inundation hazard posed to the most populated coastal communities on the east coast of the East Cape region, New Zealand, which had not been evaluated before. Our tsunami inundation hazard study is based on severe but realistic scenario events from a selection of local and distant earthquake tsunami sources. Such modelling covers a gap in knowledge caused by the short historical record of tsunamis in this region (covering <200 years), and the sparse observations of historical tsunamis due to a largely rural population. We identify that the worst flooding is often not associated with the first wave arrivals, and that coastal oscillations can last a long time in distant events. The modelling results allow us to determine typical characteristics of the pattern of flooding, specific to an area. This information is important for emergency planning and preparedness.