World Commodity Research Articles

Medium- and Long-Term Trends in the Development of the World Economy

The article deals with long-term trends in the world economy and international trade, new challenges for global development, including digitalization and servicification of the economy, trade wars and increasing geopolitical tensions in the world. Also the medium-term prospects of world economic and commodity markets situation are analyzed, as well as specific economic developments in the largest countries and groupings – the USA, EU, China and India. The unprecedented scale of trade and economic confrontation between the United States and China has significantly increased uncertainty in the global market and provoked an explosive growth of trade protectionism, destabilized the foundations of the existing world economic order. Long-term structural shifts in international trade are associated with an increase in the share of services and expanding range of tradable services due to digitization, in the world energy market – with the US becoming one of the largest net exporters of energy and the formation of a highly competitive global gas market due to the explosive growth of LNG exports and the diversification of its suppliers. Almost all future scenarios are dominated by downside risks and strategic uncertainties, which increases the demand for multi-vector policy and diversification in foreign economic activity.

The Northern Sea Route cargo transportation development

The Northern Sea Route (or the Northern through-passage) is a transport corridor, the use of which is called on in order to increase the efficiency of the Russian economy, activate the natural resources exploration for sub-sovereign entities located in the Arctic zone of Russia. The study purpose is to determine the Northern Sea Route cargo transportation development contemplations in consideration of the observed changes in the world commodity markets. Comparative analysis and a systematic approach is used as the main research methods, which makes it possible to hold a holistic management of ROE of the Northern Sea Route development, implemented at the federal level to ensure a sustainable innovative development of the national economy and the effective use of its resource potentia. The main conclusion is that the volume of cargo transportation along the Northern Sea Route will grow, but at a slower rate than the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and will reach 46 to 50 million tons in 2024.

Global Financial Derivatives Market Development and Trading on the Example of Ukraine

Stock market of financial derivatives in Ukraine still develops. There is important to find the way how to use world experience for the domestic implementation. First of all there is a need to improve of legislative base to ensure economic and financial stability. The next way of integration process for domestic stock market of financial derivatives is stock consolidation. Before implementation of foreign experience on the stock market of Ukraine it is important to take into account of all risks which are connected with this process. This research shows appropriate steps for integration of Ukrainian stock market of financial derivatives into global scale. The article identifies the economic essence of derivatives and their types within market economy. Key trends in global derivatives trading are highlighted. Current state and organizational measures of derivatives market development in Ukraine are discussed. Price risk has become the main feature of contemporary commodity and financial markets. Globalization of world commodity and financial markets leads to rapid changes and uncertain business conditions. Under current circumstances, derivatives market provides efficient ways for price risk hedging within market economy. That is why it is important to take into consideration the contemporary state and perspectives of derivatives market in Ukraine.

Potential for development of innovative processes in the high-tech sector of the region’s economy

The development prospects of innovative processes in the economy of the region, characterized by technological diversity and diversified specialization, are considered. The development areas were prioritized on the basis of the need to develop high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy, which are the locomotives of growth for basic and infrastructural ones. Assessment of strategic opportunities was based on an analysis of the development trends of world commodity markets, taking into account the potential of the region and the competitive positions of industries. The development of world markets was considered in the aspect of “global challenges” and national trends in two types of challenges, which determined the possibilities for their development and impact on national and local markets. At the same time, the emergence of new conditions for the development of commodity markets, which must be taken into account in the evaluation processes. The phasing of the study is determined. The prospects for the development of a high-tech sector of the economy in the field of high production redistribution in the context of traditional and new markets are presented. A positioning map has been compiled and the transition from local (niche) competitiveness to international. Potential elements of the region’s scientific and technical system in the form of R&D, production and consumption centers that accompany the process of technological development along the entire life cycle are identified.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ РОЛИ СЫРЬЕВОГО РЕСУРСА В ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ЭКОНОМИКЕ: НОВЫЕ ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ДЛЯ РОССИИ

The author considers the factors and difficulties of involving raw materials in international trade at the present stage. The necessity of developing new approaches to assessing the possibilities and effects of including resources in the global turnover against the backdrop of globalization challenges is shown. It is noted that the transformation of the model of world economic development reinforces attention to the resource supply factor of the modern world economy and helps to increase its role in the field of interaction of economic and political power vectors. It is determined that the technology of resource management in the global economy provides for the optimization of the processes of forming the resource base and improving the management of resource flows. It has been revealed that the problem of finding new approaches to improving the management of resource 159 МИРОВАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ОПЫТ flows, especially raw materials, in the modern world economy is becoming particularly relevant against the background of the emergence of new technologies in resource extraction, the introduction of innovations in organizing the delivery of resources to their places of consumption and reducing the efficiency of existing business models. Some aspects of the application of soft calculations and measurements in the management of raw resource flows are presented. The characteristic is given to the system of socio-economic ratings of countries. The ratings that evaluate the raw material resource flows are considered. Combined ratings are proposed for use in the management of raw material resource flows. It is noted that the competitive advantages of the economies of countries, integration associations, individual areas of production in modern conditions largely depend on their involvement in the processes of international specialization. It is posed the problem of effective countries supplying raw materials for participation in value chains. Particular attention is paid to identifying opportunities for improving the activities of Russian companies in world commodity markets.

Reversing the Resource Curse: Foreign Corruption Regulation and Economic Development

We examine whether foreign corruption regulation reduces corruption and increases the local economic benefits of resource extraction. After a mid-2000s increase in enforcement of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), economic activity (measured by nighttime luminosity) increases by 14% (3%) in African communities within a 10- (25-) kilometer radius of resource extraction facilities whose owners are subject to the FCPA. Local perceptions of corruption decline by 8%. Consistent with changes in existing extraction firms’ business practices contributing to the increase in development, the association between resource production, instrumented by world commodity prices, and local economic activity increases by 40%.

Sustainable Development: Bonding Inertia of a Resource Based Economic Specialization

This article is focused on the issues of interdependence between resources and economic development. The inability to form universal approaches to ensuring sustainable development is caused by constant change of public development conditions and substantial differences between territories. The objective of this research is to reveal distinctive tendencies in the performance of Russia’s economic system in view of exploring possibilities of achieving sustainable development in regions with a large number of monotowns. The hypothesis of the research is a thesis that sustainable development of the Russian economy at all levels is affected by the growth holding inertia caused by its resource based specialization. It was confirmed that among factors affecting sustainable development of the Russian economy are its specialization in natural resources, fragmented material production, lack of a national science-based engineering core and a non-developed internal market, priority support by the government of large private companies both in industry and finance and reliance on foreign investments. The analysis of sustainable development of Kemerovo Oblast confirmed the first part of the conclusions made by Thanh Le and Cuong Le Van – the use of nonrenewable resources limits economic growth. It is currently impossible to verify the second part of their conclusions as applied to Kemerovo Oblast. The main condition – rational economic structure – is out of the picture. The process of sustainable development is affected by dominating resource based industrial specialization and as a result by high dependence of socio-economic development and regional budgets on world commodity prices.

The Application Status of Chinese Traditional Cultural Elements in Modern Clothing Design

<p>China has a long history of Chinese civilization and profound traditional culture. The design elements contained in the Chinese civilization and traditional culture, with diverse forms, broad themes, long-lasting and rich connotations, are worthy cultural essences and cultural treasures and any other art forms are difficult to replace the historical status of this essence. The fashion design trend prevailing in the commodity world has been rooted in the soil of Chinese traditional cultureand constantly absorbs the creative essence of design elements, hoping to inject positive cultural connotation into the construction of value orientation in modern fashion design.</p>

Impacts of the U.S.–China Trade War on ASEAN: Case of Thailand

With nearly a year of trade dispute between the United States and China, it has become apparent that the global economy will slow down, and this will have a direct impact on world trade. We adopt a vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of the U.S.–China trade war on the Thai economy. The results indicate that Thailand's output and exports to key markets are adversely affected by the escalating trade dispute. The slowdown in the Chinese economy will also put further downward pressure on world commodity prices, which in turn will reduce Thailand's exports.

ДИНАМИКА МИРОВОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ТОВАРНЫХ ПОТОКОВ НИОБИЕВОГО СЫРЬЯ

Актуальность работы обусловлена необходимостью изучения проблем монопольного мирового рынка ниобия. Цель: изучение динамики мировых товарных потоков (производства, импорта, экспорта, потребления) ниобиевых продуктов (ниобиевых концентратов и феррониобия); выработка предложений по снижению уровня монополизации предложения ниобиевого сырья. Методы: статистический, графический, логический. Результаты. Мировой рынок ниобиевых продуктов является исключительно монополизированным с абсолютным доминированием бразильской компании Companhia Brazileira de Metalurgia e Mineraçã (CBMM). Разработка крупнейшего в мире месторождения ниобия Араша с высококачественными и технологичными пирохлоровыми рудами и отлаженное производство позволяют CBMM удерживать монопольную позицию. Учтенных мировых ресурсов ниобия (44,7 млн т Nb2O5) достаточно более чем на 50 лет растущего потребления ниобиевых продуктов. 63 % мировых ресурсов ниобия приходится на Бразилию. Мировой сбыт феррониобия вырос с 25 тыс. т в 1996 г. до 105 тыс. т в 2014 г., темпы прироста +8,7 %/год. В международной торговле находится более 95 % от производимого в мире феррониобия. На экспорт Бразилия поставляет 69,5–86,6 тыс. т/год, Канада – 6,1–10,7 тыс. т/год. Главными импортерами феррониобия являются США, Япония, Германия, Китай, Южная Корея, Италия, Бельгия, Франция и Россия. Выросли объемы импорта феррониобия в Китай (до 16,8 тыс. т в 2017 г., прирост +20,0 %/год), в США, Россию и Южную Корею, сократились в Испанию. Среднемировая цена феррониобия во времени выросла с 8,6 $ США/кг в 2004 г. до 26,3 $ США/кг в 2012 г., после чего начала снижаться вплоть до 19,6 $ США/кг в 2017 г. Средние цены импорта ниже среднемировой наблюдаются для Китая (–1,5 % отн.) и России (–19,5 % отн.). Выше среднемировой цены феррониобия средние цены на импорт (+0,6…6,2 % отн.) в Японию, Францию, Италию, Бельгию, США, Германию, Британию. Значительно выше среднемировых цены импорта феррониобия в Индию, составлявшие в 2006–2017 гг. +39…65 % отн. Мировое потребление феррониобия во времени увеличивается, имея прирост объемов +9,1 %/год, что значительно опережает прирост производства стали (+4,3 %/год) и других ферросплавов (+3…6 %/год). Растет мировое удельное потребление феррониобия на 1 т стальной продукции – с 28 г/т в 1996 г. до 63 г/т в 2017 г. По абсолютным объемам потребления феррониобия наибольшие темпы прироста приходятся на Китай – с 0,9 тыс. т в 1999 г. до 16,8 тыс. т в 2017 г. (темп прироста +25,2 %/год). Высокие темпы прироста абсолютного потребления также в Южной Корее, России, Индии и Бельгии. Превышает среднемировой уровень удельного потребления феррониобия (2017 г.) в Бельгии (250 г/т), Германии (155 г/т), США (111 г/т), Южной Кореи (106 г/т), Франции (97 г/т), Японии (85 г/т), Италии (84 г/т), Британии (84 г/т) и России (73 г/т). Компания CBMM ведет активную ценовую политику, препятствующую появлению в других странах новых проектов добычи ниобия. Второй проблемой освоения большинства ниобиевых месторождений является многокомпонентность их состава, которая несет риски дисбаланса реализации получаемых товарных продуктов. Наиболее интересен проект разработки Томторского ниобий-редкоземельного месторождения в России, при определенных условиях возможно осуществление проектов Элк-Крик в США, Гхурауях в Саудовской Аравии, Бонга в Намибии, Сукулу в Уганде, Мотзфельд в Гренландии, Большезиминское в России.

Foreign Trade of the European Union : Dominant Fluctuations

The article analyzes the most important changes that have taken place over the past five years in the dynamics and geographical structure of foreign trade relations of the European Union (EU) as the largest entity in the system of modern international commodity trade. It is shown that, despite such rather unfavorable external factors as the increase in general turbulence in world commodity trade, the expansion of the zone of protectionist and sanctions measures, trade conflicts, the EU was able to maintain its dominant position in international commodity exchange. At the same time, the European Union has pushed the main competitors, as the latest statistics show a significant decrease in the share of the North American free trade Association (NAFTA, consisting of the United States, Canada, Mexico) and Japan in international exports. Continuing to pursue a balanced foreign trade policy, the EU used its traditional instruments not only to increase its activity in general and outside the European region, but also to maintain a positive balance of foreign trade. In addition, there are hopes for the resumption of goodneighbourly trade relations between the European Union and the Russian Federation, which have been complicated in recent years by the introduction and extension of sanctions measures by the EU and Russia's response. The author presents new statistical materials, numerous calculated data, for the first time introduced into the domestic scientific circulation.

Energy price shocks and dynamics of current account in Turkey: a FAVAR Approach

Purpose- In this article, we examine the linkages between current account and energy prices, namely crude oil, coal and natural gas in Turkey the years between 2005 and 2016. Methodology- This article investigates how the changes in the energy prices affect the current account in Turkey. For this purpose, a Factor-Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) model is used with economic data from the Turkish economy and world commodity price indexes to obtain empirical results for current account dynamics in the Turkish economy. The impact of various factors that include crude oil prices, coal prices, natural gas prices and fuel (Energy) index (Crude oil, natural gas, and coal price indices) data have been studied by obtaining impulse response functions. Findings- Natural gas prices gradually affect the current account. The impact is permanent after a period indicating a very limited elasticity. Oil prices have an immediate The current on the current account. Cycles, in the long run, indicate some degree of elasticity. The negative effect of coal price on the current account deficit occurs with a significant delay. Crude oil price index shocks graphs and fuel index, which includes oil price, coal price and natural gas, and crude oil price shocks graphs are very similar. Conclusion- In this comprehensive study, we can conclude that crude oil prices, coal prices, natural gas prices deteriorate current account balance. From all of the energy indices, the crude oil price is the most effective on the current account.

The Analysis Effect Of Commodities Crude Oil and Coal In Indonesia Stock Exchange

Crude oil is a commodity and major world needs today. Since the historic collapse of Lehman Brothers helped precipitate the global economic crisis in the spring of 2008, a strong positive correlation between the price of crude oil continues to appear and the global stock markets, including the stock exchanges in Indonesia. This happens due to capital market investors assume that rising energy prices are a sign of the increasing global demand objective of this study was to determine the effect of crude oil prices and the price of coal on JCI in the Stock Exchange in the period 2012 -2017. 
 This study will use a time series data analysis tool Vector Autoregression approach. VAR model approach is considered more suitable for detecting a mutual relationship or a dynamic two-way causality between variables in world crude oil prices, the price of gold and the price of coal on the stock price index of the mining sector in the system of equations

Energy price shocks and dynamics of current account in Turkey: is this time different

Purpose- In this article, we examine the link between current account and energy prices, namely crude oil, coal and natural gas in Turkey the years between 2005 and 2016 . Methodology- This article investigates how the changes in the energy prices affect the current account in Turkey. For this purpose, a Factor-Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) model is used with economic data from the Turkish economy and world commodity price indexes to obtain empirical results for current account dynamics in the Turkish economy. The impact of various factors that include crude oil prices, coal prices, natural gas prices data have been studied by obtaining impulse response functions. Findings- Natural gas prices gradually affect the current account. The impact is permanent after a period indicating a very limited elasticity. Oil prices have an immediate impact on the current account. Swings, in the long run, indicate some degree of elasticity. The negative effect of coal price on the current account deficit occurs with a significant delay. Conclusion- We can conclude that, from all of the energy indices, the crude oil price is the most effective on the current account.

Bilateral Trade Among Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa Economies: An Empirical Analysis

In the backdrop of increasing share of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) economies in the total world commodity trade, the prime objective of the present study is to determine the export and import intensities of total commodities among the economies forming the BRICS group. For this purpose, the present study undertakes an empirical analysis of bilateral trade among BRICS economies using indices of export and import intensity for a 10-year time period, commencing from the year 2006 (the year in which the BRIC grouping was formalized) to the year 2015, so as to determine the degree of trade integration among the partner nations. As a thumb rule, when an economy’s export and import intensity index values are estimated to be greater than one with the same trading partner, then it reflects a high degree of trade integration between them. With regard to the findings of the present study, wherever the regional integration among certain member countries of the BRICS is found to be on the higher side, the composition of exports and imports has also been provided for the dominant commodities. Thus, in the present study, the calculation of trade intensities, identification of specific commodities and incidence of higher trade integration within the BRICS countries present the collective picture of their mutual trade flows, which has further helped in the identification of policy-relevant points in this regard.

ANALISIS VARIABEL-VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI PROVINSI KEPULAUAN BANGKA BELITUNG TAHUN 2008-2015

Economic growth of a region can assess from various aggregate sizes, one of them is GDRP (Gross Regional Domestic Product). Based on theory, GDRP can influenced by several variables, including world commodity prices which have the largest share of GDP, labor force participation rate (LFPR), Human Development Index (HDI), income inequality, open unemployment rate and percentage of the poor. In 2015 Bangka Belitung Islands Province GRDP had a share of around 0.5 percent of Indonesia's GDP. The largest share is West Bangka Regency with 11.46 trillion rupiahs, while the smallest one is East Belitung with 6.112 trillion rupiahs.To find out picture of economic growth and the influence of variable prices of palm oil commodities, LFPR, HDI income inequality, open unemployment and the percentage of the poor on economic growth in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province 2008-2015, the method used is descriptive analysis and panel data regression.The best model for estimating GDRP growth in Bangka Belitung Islands Province in 2008-2015 is the fix effect model with Seemingly Uncorrelated Regression Method. With alpha 5 percent, the variables that significantly influence economic growth are HDI, the percentage of the poor, labor force participation rate (LFPR), income inequality, open unemployment rate and world commodity prices.economic growth

Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts

Abstract In many historical episodes, criminal activity displays booms and busts. One clear example is the case of metal crime in the United Kingdom (and elsewhere) where, in the face of big increases in value driven by world commodity prices, thefts rose very sharply in the 2000s, after which they fell. This paper studies the respective roles of prices, policing and policy in shaping this crime boom and bust. Separate study of each reveals metal crime being driven up via sizeable and significant metal crime–price elasticities and driven down by changes in policing and policy. A regression-based decomposition analysis confirms that all three of the hypothesised factors considered in the paper - prices, policing and policy - were empirically important in the different stages of metal theft's boom and bust.

USE OF INFORMATION SOURCES (BASIS OF DATA) IN JUDICIAL ECONOMIC EXAMINATION OF TRANSFER PRICING

One of the main tasks of the forensic economic examination for transfer pricing is the process of finding and determining the comparability of controlled operations, without which it is impossible to determine the fact of the compliance of the conducted controlled operation on «the Arm’s length principle». The basic component of this search is available and correct information in the form of any information databases and other public sources of information. Verification of the use of the enterprise by the most appropriate method of transfer pricing by the results of functional analysis as well as the application of methods for prioritization is a procedure that depends and is fully related to the availability of complete and reliable information about prices. Public information sources contain price information that can be used to determine comparable prices. The list of specialized commercial publications for the purpose of transfer pricing includes – a monthly newsletter «Review of prices of Ukrainian and world commodity markets»; informational and analytical product «Commodity Monitor. Ukraine»; information and analytical product «Digest of commodity prices in world markets»; the head of the State Fiscal service of Ukraine; the official site of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. The information contained in the commercial databases Orbis, Amadeus, Ruslana (VanDeek), Onesourse TP (Thomson Reuters), BloombergProfessional (Bloomberg), Spark (Interfax) is publicly available and can be used with an analysis of comparability in order to establish the condition of controlled operations on «the Arm’s length principle». It should be noted that the main thing that should reflect any source of information is the presence of arguments that will provide comparability to assess and justify compliance with the conditions of the conducted controlled operation on «the Arm’s length principle». Key words: judicial-economic examination, transfer pricing, informative sources, databases.

HVI in implementation of internet technologies for providing quality of textile articles

A computerized flow of unified information on textile raw material is able to reach the world commodity exchanges within the shortest possible time, actively influence promotion of new products to the market and price-formation processes owing to implementation of Internet technologies. Cotton of new breeds of cotton plant and fiber of a new breed of textile hemp has been used for investigation. The comparative assessment of fiber has been performed using the methods of national standards UzRST (GOST) and computerized Spinlab HVI 900. The national standards of cotton quality are informative, but labor-intensive and related to equipment, which is not computerized. The assessment of quality fiber of cotton plant breeds and the hemp ones testifies to the fact that Spinlab HVI 900 characterizes peculiarities of different fibers. The availability of the unified HVI technology integrated into Internet is of crucial significance for a possibility of assessing the new product in the criteria of widespread raw material, and not only a cotton one. The investigations of hemp fiber have demonstrated that the raw material features UHML length comparable with fine-fibrous cotton (36.8–37.4 mm) with uniformity along the length of Un up to 77.6. The strength of such fiber is high — up to 43.5. It is evident for the consumers of different countries that the hemp fiber is suitable for blended spinning with cotton using the widespread cotton-processing equipment. The fiber quality information in digitized form can be promptly transmitted and analyzed globally for production and commercial purposes. It increases the capabilities of qualitative assessment of some fiber examples with the prospects of dynamic provision of information from the unit laboratory to the world market through implementation of Internet technologies.

Структурна вразливість та фінансова нестабільність України: глобальний контекст

The Ukrainian economy has been suffering from financial instability for years, which manifests itself in the chronic devaluation of the hryvnia, regular financial, budgetary, debt and banking crises, cyclical inflation surges, excommunication of the public and private sectors from international financial markets, national dependence on external official loans, creditors and conditions for receiving their credits. Each further financial aggravation in Ukraine is accompanied by a deep economic crisis, an increase in unemployment, social tension and the spread of public disbelief. After all, such a picture has been observed in the country for 20 years in a row. According to a common glance that seems particularly obvious during each new explosion of financial /budget deficits, the root cause of all these problems is excessive state consumption, which provokes unproductive costs in all sectors of the economy, increasing its internal instability and vulnerability. In such circumstances, strict budgetary constraints are considered as the best safeguard for financial and economic stability. The article offers a different view on the causes of financial instability in Ukraine. In particular, as its key factor, structural and manufacturing imperfection is considered, which causes the country's financial dependence on fluctuations of the world conjunction on the raw materials it produces and exports. This approach is consistent not only with the logic of intoxication of the domestic economy during the last global financial crisis, but also with the results of relevant studies conducted after it has been overcome. Underlying circumstances of the financial dynamics of Ukraine is the global liquidity supply, the volume of which directly depends on the nature of the monetary policy applied by the world's leading central banks. In particular, its easing is accompanied by an increase in demand in world markets, including those of raw materials, which stimulates economic growth of Ukraine with simultaneous increase of its financial capabilities. Conversely, the introduction of a tighter monetary policy oppresses global demand, commodity prices and, consequently, the productive and financial prospects of the national economy. The analysis of empirical data confirms this hypothesis. In particular, the study concludes that the impact on the real GDP of Ukraine of world commodity prices and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro is, in certain circumstances, more significant than inflation in Ukraine (PPI) and the exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar. This allows to interpret the external monetary conditions as a significant factor for the economic and financial stability of Ukraine. It is so significant that, under certain conditions, its effectiveness succeeds that of the monetary and exchange rate policy of the NBU itself.