Abstract

Crude oil is a commodity and major world needs today. Since the historic collapse of Lehman Brothers helped precipitate the global economic crisis in the spring of 2008, a strong positive correlation between the price of crude oil continues to appear and the global stock markets, including the stock exchanges in Indonesia. This happens due to capital market investors assume that rising energy prices are a sign of the increasing global demand objective of this study was to determine the effect of crude oil prices and the price of coal on JCI in the Stock Exchange in the period 2012 -2017. 
 This study will use a time series data analysis tool Vector Autoregression approach. VAR model approach is considered more suitable for detecting a mutual relationship or a dynamic two-way causality between variables in world crude oil prices, the price of gold and the price of coal on the stock price index of the mining sector in the system of equations

Highlights

  • In the globalization era, many investors prefer investing in various sectors such as property and manufacturing sectors

  • If the data used stationary at first difference, the VAR model will be combined with the error correction model be cointegrated VAR or commonly known as the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

  • R-squared value in the estimation model ECM is 0,028, this means that 2% of JSX Composite (JCI) variation can be explained by variations in the variable world crude oil prices and coal in the short term, while the remaining 98% is explained by variables - other variables outside the model

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Summary

Introduction

Many investors prefer investing in various sectors such as property and manufacturing sectors. Three factors including the price of gold, crude oil prices and the exchange rate of the global financial crisis. It greatly affects the economic condition in the country (Zamani, 2016). One of the effects of the global financial crisis is slowing economic growth in Indonesia in 2008. Conditions in the balance of payments current account deficit continuously, and realized crude oil prices increasingly erratic, efforts to increase the acceptance of non-crude oil exports are absolutely necessary. These direct effects affect the stock index in the capital market

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