World Oil Prices Research Articles

THE EFFECT OF WORLD OIL PRICES, GOLD PRICES, AND OTHER ENERGY PRICES ON THE INDONESIAN MINING SECTOR WITH EXCHANGE RATE OF INDONESIAN RUPIAH AS THE MODERATING EFFECT

The paper aimed to determine the effect of world oil prices, gold prices, and other energy prices on the Indonesian mining sector with the moderating influence of the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah. This study is quantitative in which the data gathered from Investing.com from 2016 to 2020. The variables considered in the survey include exchange rate, Indonesian stock returns of mining companies, gold prices, oil prices, and gasoline prices. Concerning the analysis, the vector autoregression, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), and adopt the granger causality test. The results of this study identified no effect of oil price, gasoline price, and gold price on the Indonesian stock exchange of mining companies. On the other hand, there is no moderation of foreign exchange of Indonesian Rupiah among the relationship of oil price, gasoline price, and gold price with stock returns of Indonesian mining companies. This study's results are restricted to the Indonesian context, and the data considered from 2016 to 2019.Keywords: Exchange rate, Oil price, Gold price, Gasoline price, Indonesian Mining Sector Stock Returns.JEL Classifications: Q41, Q47.DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11351

Ловушка нефтеэтатической модели: уроки Венесуэлы

Using the example of Venezuela, the article analyzes the impact of oil rent on socio-political processes. An analysis of the political history of Venezuela throughout the 20th century indicates that one of the main factors in changing the political system was the size of the country's revenues from oil exports, as well as the parameters of the distribution of these revenues. Periods of falling world oil prices led to the emergence of political instability in Venezuela and, in some cases, to a change in the political regime. In order to maintain social stability and ensure electoral support for the current political regimes, the Venezuelan authorities resorted to the redistribution of resource rent. The circle of recipients of resource rent was constantly expanding. At the first stage, in the first half of the 20th century, these were large landowners and the country's political elite. In 1960s–1970s, the middle class became the main recipient of the rent. During this period, Venezuelan society has reached the highest level of its stability and prosperity. At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, the poorest strata of Venezuelan society have become the new beneficiaries of the resource rent. At the same time, a social conflict was growing in the country between strata of the population who received their share of the resource rent and citizens who did not receive their share. The possibilities for further development of this model have already been exhausted. The social crisis led to the degradation of the country's economy and oil industry. The amount of oil rent is already insufficient to ensure broad electoral support for the current government. The socio-political model of Venezuela has entered the stage of a deep crisis.

A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy

This study investigated whether global oil price changes, exchange rate, interest rate, and economic output exert symmetric or asymmetric pass-through effects on inflation in the Philippines. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was fitted to the observable data using quarterly observations from 1998 to 2019. Knowledge of these relationships is important in monetary policy setting in achieving targeted inflation; the Philippines adopted inflation targeting in 2002. The finding shows that world oil price shocks are still prominent and the most important determinants of inflation variations in the country. There is prima facie evidence on the short-run asymmetry of oil price changes to inflation. Exchange rate pass-through to inflation was very minimal in the short-run, and there is no long-run effect. Evidence that interest rate and demand shocks have a long-run asymmetric effect on inflation was found. These findings imply that monetary policy setting should account for the asymmetric effects of inflation determinants. Study results provide a deeper understanding of how positive and negative changes of inflation determinants affect actual inflation, which aids policymakers in achieving targeted inflation.

THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATION WORLD OIL PRICES AND THE RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA

This study examined the effect of fluctuations in world oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate on economic growth in Indonesia in the short and long term. This study used time-series data for 31 years. The analytical model used was the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. The results show in the short term showed that world oil prices had a positive but insignificant effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the rupiah exchange rate had a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia. In the long term, world oil prices had a positive and significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia. The rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on economic growth in Indonesia. It indicated that in the short term, the rupiah exchange rate had an influence or contribution to economic growth in Indonesia, and in the long term, world oil prices had an effect or contribution to economic growth in Indonesia.

Analisis Hubungan Antara Makro Ekonomi dan Indeks Sektoral di Bursa Efek Indonesia

This study aims to determine the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation and the selected sectoral indices, namely the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors. This study uses a stationary test, cointegration test, and Granger causality test with Eviews10 software. The population of this research is sectoral index, rupiah exchange rate, inflation and world oil prices. While the samples of this research are the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation, the mining sector, the financial sector, and the basic and chemical industry sector for the period January 2017 – March 2021. The data used in this study is secondary data in the form of time series data. Data collection techniques used the documentation method taken in the form of monthly data through the official websites www.idx.co.id, www.bi.go.id, and www.investing.com. The results of this study indicate that the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, inflation, the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors are stationary at the first difference level. The results of the Johansen Test show that there is no cointegration between variables in this study. There is a causality between inflation and the mining sector, the basic and chemical industry sector and the rupiah exchange rate as well as a causality between the financial sector, the mining sector, and the basic and chemical industrial sector and world oil prices. Furthermore, the rupiah exchange rate, world oil prices, and inflation have an impact on the mining sector, the financial sector, as well as the basic and chemical industry sectors.

Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Inflasi, Konsumsi Rumah Tangga terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

This study aims to determine the effect of world oil prices, inflation, and household consumption on economic growth in Indonesia. This research is a type of descriptive research with a quantitative approach using the annual time series in 1988-2018. The analysis technique used in this study is multiple linear regressions with 31 samples. The results showed that both simultaneously and partially, world oil prices and inflation had a significant (negative) effect and household consumption had a significant (positive) effect on economic growth. Based on research results, the government can improve and build oil and gas infrastructure so that it can optimize oil production. This is very useful because it will reduce oil imports and also reduce the inflation rate. The government can also establish monetary policy and fiscal policy to maintain inflation stability. Other policies that can be done are by increasing the amount of goods produced so that the number of goods in circulation increases, setting maximum prices for several types of goods, and also making policies that can control the inflation rate so as to encourage domestic consumption due to price stability, so that consumption expenditure can be increase or can be stable

A Year of a Pandemic: the State of the Russian Budget System

In the first quarter of 2021 against the background of a slight recovery in economic activity and a continuing downward trend in real household incomes the RF consolidated budget revenues grew not only in nominal terms, but also in real terms compared to last year. The most active growth in real terms was demonstrated by tax revenues and VAT. Income taxes and social insurance payments related to the income of the population are significantly behind the rate of inflation. The formed positive trend in world oil prices, however, does not yet provide access to the level of last year’s oil and gas revenues of the federal budget. At the same time, the outstripping growth of non-oil and gas revenues, even with the increase in the total volume of federal budget expenditures above the rate of inflation, ensured the final positive balance of both the federal budget and the consolidated budget. In the first quarter of the year, spending on the national economy grew at a faster pace. The growth rate of social policy expenditures remains high. Sub-federal budget revenues also showed a pronounced upward trend, mainly due to federal transfers. There is a certain shift in emphasis from their non-target types to their target ones. Although the expenditures of the sub-federal budgets increased in real terms, the balance of the consolidated budgets remained positive. Nevertheless, in a number of regions, there is a budget deficit with a significant amount of deficit financing of expenditures. The values of the state subfederal debt decreased slightly, while the total amount of the country’s state internal debt increased significantly.

Global oil risk price management in Iran and Russia

Oil is one of the most important sources of income for oil-exporting countries such as the Russian Federation and Iran, as well as the main raw material in the production process in oil-importing countries. Risks fluctuations in world oil prices can cause sovereign financial risks of instability in macroeconomic variables in both groups of oil exporting and importing countries. Negative shocks in world oil prices for countries such as Iran and Russia, whose economic structure is oriented towards oil and provides a significant part of the state budget through oil, could have significant consequences for the economies of these countries. Such fluctuations not only affect the economies of oil-importing countries, but are also one of the main causes of disruptions in the economies of oil-exporting countries. This study examines the government's management of risk fluctuations in world oil prices and its actions in Iran and Russia. The results of this study show that Iran and Russia, as sanctioned countries and oil exporters, have taken various measures to deal with these shocks, the most important of which is the creation of sovereign wealth funds in the two countries. In this article, the characteristics of national development funds in Iran and Russia are compared. The differences between Iran and Russia in risk management and the structure of these funds are shown.

Nexus of Gold Price-Exchange rate-interest rate-Oil Price: Lessons for Monetary Policy in Pakistan

This study aims to evaluate the links among gold price, oil price, exchange rate and interest rate in Pakistan. All these channels are interconnected and have impact on monetary policy of the country. Monthly data ranging from 1995-01 to 2016-12 is used for the analysis based on VAR Model. Exchange rate depreciations are responded by tight monetary policy actions, which seem to have a significant effect on exchange rate stabilization process and raise gold price. Changes in oil prices at global level strongly affect the nexus in Pakistan. Monetary policy managers are suggested to take changes in gold prices as indicators of short-run fluctuations in Pakistan economy. The study contributes in two ways. Firstly, as a case study of Pakistan, it analyzes the role of gold market in response to changes in exchange rate and world oil prices. Secondly, the study links up monetary policy decisions to the nexus of gold price-oil price-exchange rate. Findings of the study may be useful for monetary policy makers, academia, and gold industry alike.

The Impact of Russian Policy on Saudi Arabia in Terms of Economy Security

The study attempts to present the impact of Russian policy on Saudi Arabia in terms of economic security. Analyses of primary data on the quantitative states of the possessed oil and gas resources and their annual consumption, as well as the state of essential armaments of Russia and Saudi Arabia were carried out and evaluated. As a result of the analysis of the literature of the research, it was observed that the potential of Russian-Saudi military cooperation is unrealized. One of the goals of Russian policy is to seek to limit the influence of both Saudi Arabia and the United States in the Middle East region. This limitation allows Saudi Arabia itself to not dictate world oil prices. The United States, on the other hand, due to its huge demand for oil, is forced to pursue such a policy in order to be guaranteed an adequate price and continuity of supply to meet its oil needs now and in the future.

Which government supports are beneficial for the transportation subsectors

Although Malaysia is an oil exporter and a fuel subsidizer, rising oil prices and the removal of energy subsidies have increased policymakers' concerns about the negative effects of these shocks on social well-being. One of the activities that are affected by such shocks is transport, which has a direct impact on social well-being. Therefore, this study first examines the impact of rising world oil prices and the complete elimination of energy subsidies on the four main transport subsectors in Malaysia. It then looks at the impacts of recycling of 10% of government revenues from these shocks on key economic and social variables across four transport subsectors. For this purpose, it uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using the latest Malaysian input-output table for the year 2015. It also uses an econometric method to check the impacts of the removal of energy subsidies on energy consumption and CO2 emissions using time series data during 1987–2018. The simulation results suggest that oil price hikes and the removal of energy subsidies improve the economic and environmental performance of Malaysia. However, recycling 10% of government revenues from rising global oil prices increases the output of the land, water, air and other transport services by 6.27%, 8.43%, 2.96% and 2.80%, while the subsidy recycling policy increases them by 0.10%, 0.18%, 0.04% and 0.04%, respectively. Water transport followed by land transport gains more because of the increase in its output, exports and imports. Furthermore, both high oil prices and the removal of energy subsidies decrease energy consumption and CO2 emissions across all transport subsectors, which is supported by the econometric results. Both recycling policies also decrease energy consumption and CO2 emissions with a greater magnitude for the oil price recycling scheme. These findings can be used for future planning by decision-makers on energy demand and transport support in Malaysia.

Analisis Buyback Saham Tanpa Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham di PT. Aneka Tambang (Studi Pada Surat Edaran Nomor 3/SEOJK.04/2020)

In early 2020, stock trading in Indonesia was under significant pressure, as indicated by the decline in the IHSG. This is due to the pressure and global economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic and weakening world oil prices. The purpose of this study was to find out how the effect of share buyback announcements without the RUPS on the response to the market at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. based on Surat Edaran OJK Nomor 3/SEOJK.04/2020. This research is structured with a quantitative method with a descriptive approach using secondary data types obtained from finance.yahoo.com and other relevant sources. This study will assess whether a significant difference is found before the announcement of the stock buyback and afterwards on the return, abnormal return, and trading volume activity of the stock. The results of the study stated that there was no significant difference before and after the announcement of the stock buyback on the return and abnormal return at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. However, a significant difference was found in the trading volume activity (TVA) before the announcement of the share buyback at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. and after.

Analisis Buyback Saham Tanpa Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham di PT. Aneka Tambang (Studi Pada Surat Edaran Nomor 3/SEOJK.04/2020)

In early 2020, stock trading in Indonesia was under significant pressure, as indicated by the decline in the IHSG. This is due to the pressure and global economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic and weakening world oil prices. The purpose of this study was to find out how the effect of share buyback announcements without the RUPS on the response to the market at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. based on Surat Edaran OJK Nomor 3/SEOJK.04/2020. This research is structured with a quantitative method with a descriptive approach using secondary data types obtained from finance.yahoo.com and other relevant sources. This study will assess whether a significant difference is found before the announcement of the stock buyback and afterwards on the return, abnormal return, and trading volume activity of the stock. The results of the study stated that there was no significant difference before and after the announcement of the stock buyback on the return and abnormal return at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. However, a significant difference was found in the trading volume activity (TVA) before the announcement of the share buyback at PT. Aneka Tambang Tbk. and after.

OIL PRICE AND LEVERAGE FOR MINING SECTOR COMPANIES IN INDONESIA

The research was conducted to prove empirically the impact of oil prices, interest rates, profitability, company size, and liquidity on leverage in mining sector companies in Indonesia. The study population was 47 companies in the mining sector, using the purposive sampling method, the research sample was selected as many as 32 companies in a period of 5 years from 2014 to 2018 so that 160 observations were obtained. The data analysis method used a random-effects model selected from panel data regression. The empirical findings show that profitability, liquidity, world oil prices, and interest rates have a negative effect on leverage, while firm size has no impact. The empirical findings of this study can help the mining sector industry in Indonesia in making decisions about corporate debt policies that are significantly influenced by oil prices, profitability, liquidity, and interest rates to create optimal debt policies.Keywords: Oil Price, Leverage, Mining Sector Companies, IndonesiaJEL Classifications: G22, E22, E44, Q43DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.11237

Economic transformation of Kazakhstan in three decades of independence

The article traces the path of transformation of the economy of Kazakhstan over the years of independenceand marks the critical points in its development. The analysis of the stages from the first stepsin the role of independent state to the current period of the pandemic is carried out. It is based on internationalorganizations’ research on Kazakhstan, strategic development plans, messages of the Presidentof country, as well as statistical data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for StrategicPlanning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The turning points in the country’s developmentare indicated: the resumption of ties with the former Soviet republics, the inflow of foreign investmentand rapid economic growth in the early 2000s, the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, the deepeningof Eurasian integration, a sharp drop in the world oil price in 2015-2016 years, the COVID-19 pandemic.The article concludes that revenues from the export of raw materials ensure economic growth only inthe short term, and long-term sustainable growth requires diversification of the country’s economy andexports, in particular, development of service sector, development of human capital and industries withhigh added value. It is also important to increase the productivity of basic sectors of the economy, suchas industry, agriculture, transport.Key words: economic growth, export, foreign direct investment, government programs, diversification,competitiveness.

The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and World Oil Prices on Gold Prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an Intermediary Variable

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

Towards Achieving Sustainability in Financial Market: The Impact of Covid-19, Oil Price, Stock Price on Exchange Rate Volatility in Indonesia

The spread of the Corona Virus Disease pandemic (COVID-19) is so fast that it poses a health threat and an economic crisis. Since the beginning of March, COVID-19 has spread in Indonesia. Some economic elements, such as the exchange rate, share prices, and so on, have been quite turbulent. This study analyzes the effect of Corona Virus Disease variable (COVID-19), as well as national stock price variables, world oil price variables and exchange rates of countries in ASEAN on IDR / USD exchange rate volatility in the long term and short term. The approach used is a quantitative analysis with the ARDL method and using the ARCH / GARCH method to calculate exchange rate volatility. Estimation results in the selected model show that national stock prices, COVID-19, and world oil prices have a significant effect. Both have a negative correlation with exchange rate volatility in the long run. In the short term, only the national stock price variable does not affect the exchange rate volatility. In contrast, the COVID-19 variable and world oil prices have a significant effect, and each is positively and negatively related to exchange rate volatility. Estimation results show that the exchange rates of countries in ASEAN affected exchange rate volatility during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Assessment of the impact of US Energy Policy on world oil prices

The development of the energy sector in the United States of America (USA) represents a rivalry between two different approaches, which has intensified under the last three American administrations. The competition of approaches is expressed in the confrontation between supporters of energy based on renewable sources and supporters of traditional energy resources. A comparative analysis of changes in the energy sector, depending on the prevalence of a particular approach to energy development, shows that external conditions play a key role in promoting the energy strategy. The strategy of priority development of “green” energy carried out under Barack Obama could not be realized because of the shale boom. As a result, many companies working with renewable energy sources did not stand up to the competition. The opposite approach of Donald Trump’s focus on developing traditional energy resources to ensure US energy security and to increase jobs has been hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has virtually nullified the US administration’s efforts under this approach. The current concept of President J. Biden is aimed at continuing the strategy of Barack Obama for the development of “green” energy in the United States. Proponents of this concept hope for the possibility of its at least partial implementation in the absence of a shale boom. The lifting of the embargo on the export of American oil has led to an increase in oil supplies abroad. As of 2018, the United States has overtaken Saudi Arabia in terms of oil and gas exports, taking a leading position in the global oil market. In 2019-2020, the United States retained the first place in the world in oil production. This article examines the conceptual approaches of American administrations to the issue of energy policy and analyzes the statistical data that characterize the traditional and “clean energy” industries. An important factor is the degree of influence of the US energy policy on global oil prices. To analyze this issue, this research uses curved regression equations to assess the impact of US energy policy on world oil prices under the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. The results of the correlation show that a more effective interaction between the variables was carried out during the presidency of Barack Obama, when Exports of Crude Oil influenced the price dynamics of oil quotes with an inverse relationship. With the arrival of the Biden administration, the strategy started under Obama in favor of developing clean energy was continued. In the context of the spread of covid-19, the growth of crisis phenomena in the national economy, the growth of production costs in the oil and gas industry, and the fall in the world energy prices, the development of green energy can have a certain effect, given the Biden administration’s approach to energy development. The subsequent actions of the Biden administration may offset Trump’s efforts to develop traditional energy to strengthen the economic potential of the United States and strengthen the position of American companies in the global oil market.

Domestic Investment, Foreign Direct Investment and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria

This study examines the relationship between the two major investment components (domestic investment and foreign direct investment) and macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. In order to capture the macroeconomic stability, some selected macroeconomic variables are presented, namely: real GDP growth rate (RGDPgr), trade openness (TOP), exchange rate (EXR), inflation rate (INFR), interest rate (INTR), private sector credit (PSC) which represent domestic variables and world oil price (WOP) which represent foreign variable. The study employs Johansen cointegration and Vector Autoregressive model as the estimation techniques. Findings from the study reveals that there is no long-run relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables and the two investment variables. The study also reveals that shocks and fluctuations from real GDP growth rate (RGDPgr), private sector credit (PSC), inflation rate (INFR), interest rate (INTR), exchange rate (EXR) and world oil price (WOP) strongly and significantly affect domestic investment in Nigeria; while the shocks and instabilities arising from real GDP growth rate (RGDPgr), inflation rate (INFR), interest rate (INTR), exchange rate (EXR), trade openness (TOP) and world oil price (WOP) majorly and significantly affect foreign direct investment in Nigeria during the period under review. The study therefore recommends that Nigerian government should provide stability measures in all the aforementioned macroeconomic indicators, as this will attract a higher level of FDI and this will create an enabling business environment for domestic investment to operate.

The role of productive university in supporting the budget and educational process development

The study aims to clarify the role of other sources of funding in the educational institutions in 2021 by finding alternatives that contribute to meeting some of the expenses of educational institutions due to a decrease in the financial allocation by the state observed in the recent years with regard to the circumstances that Iraq is going through, namely low world oil prices and a lack of other revenues in universities. The research consists of five subjects: the University Office of the Higher Education Fund, the Institute of Management of Rusafa, Technical Institute of Kut, Technical Institute Baquba, Technical College Baghdad and is based on data of the 2019-2021 period. It has been proven that the increasing requirements regarding the development of the educational process in terms of technology, as well as the urgent need for laboratories and other educational institutions to enhance their budgets to meet those requirements, become a burden for those institutions. Hence, the productive university should help find ways to match actual revenues in order to eliminate the observed budget deficit.