World Oil Prices Research Articles

The Impact of the Drastic Increase in Fuel Oil (Bbm) Prices

Fuel Oil (BBM) is a commodity that plays a vital role in all economic activities. The direct impact of this change in oil prices is a change in operating costs that results in the level of profit of direct investment activities occurring. In simple terms, the purpose of investing is to maximize prosperity through the maximization of profits, and investors always try to invest in efficient and safe investments. The increase in fuel prices not only increases the burden on small communities in general but also for the business world in particular. The surge in the price of Mintak Fuel (BBM) is considered to have a real effect on economic conditions in Indonesia. High oil prices turned out to be unfavorable to the economy of any country in Asia, including Indonesia. The increase in fuel prices in Indonesia is not only caused by the high increase in world oil prices, but also due to the domestic undersupply when compared to its demand. The amount of fuel subsidies such as in Indonesia, which can drain the state budget, is also considered as an excuse for the government to increase fuel prices in the country. The impact on various industrial sectors can lead to high production and operating costs. Moreover, of course, this increase in fuel prices will also have exponential implications for Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals.

Islamic and Conventional Stocks’ Volatility: Evidence from the Three Waves of Covid-19 Pandemic

This study aims to compare the performance of Islamic and conventional stocks’ performance amid a crisis. The performance is measured by analyzing the volatility of the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) and the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) IHSG during the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on the results of the different tests using the paired t-test and Wilcoxon rank test methods, it was concluded that the ISSI and IHSG experienced significant changes before and after discovering the first case of Covid-19 in Indonesia. Significant changes in both values are also found when the Delta variance spreads. Meanwhile, when the third wave occurred due to the presence of the Omicron variant, ISSI and IHSG were able to move more stable and did not experience significant shocks. Then, the estimation results of the GARCH model conclude that both Islamic stocks and conventional stocks have an immense volatility power with an identical value of 0.94 or close to 1. The volatility is also significantly influenced by the previous volatility and the squared error representing other previous events outside the model. The volatility that occurs in Islamic and conventional stocks is not much different, even though both stocks have different characters in the ratio of debt and income. Fundamental factors also cause this high volatility in the form of shocks in several macroeconomic variables, including the rupiah exchange rate, gold prices, and world oil prices. In addition, the contagion effect that occurred during the Covid-19 crisis also contributed to the spread of systemic risk in global stock indexes on stock volatility in Indonesia

Saudi Arabia's Efforts in Implementing Saudi Vision 2030

Saudi Arabia is a country that is quite rich in oil production. But within a few years of peaking at the top, world oil prices have declined, which has seen Saudi Arabia drop below the United States. The government of Saudi Arabia then responded to the decline in the economy caused by fluctuating oil prices by compiling the Arab Vision 2030. The goal of the Arab Vision 2030 is to diversify the economy or want to release Saudi Arabia's economic dependence on oil production. This study seeks to analyze the efforts made by Saudi Arabia in implementing the Arab Vision 2030. This issue is more focused on the efforts that have been planned and will be carried out. This study uses the concept of national interest to analyze Saudi Arabia's efforts to implement Saudi Vision 2030. This research was conducted using a qualitative method with a literature study and case study approach. The data was collected through primary and secondary data in the form of articles, journals, and news in the mass media. This study concludes that several efforts made by Saudi Arabia began with new, more liberal policies and the creation of several infrastructures that support Saudi Arabia's economic diversification. Saudi Arabia is trying to increase its economy through the non-oil and gas sectors. Muhammad bin Salman, the Crown Prince, has a very important role in making policies related to economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. The efforts can still be seen from various aspects, such as increasing Saudi Arabia's investment in several countries and changing patterns of economic development in the non-oil and gas sector

ANALISIS FAKTOR DALAM DAN LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX (JII) PERIODE 2010-2021

This study aims to examine domestic and foreign factors on the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) using the estimated Vector Error Correction Model. Monthly data used from January 2010 to December 2021 (144 months). This research generally gets two findings. First, in the long term domestic factors (exchange rates) and foreign factors (world oil prices, world gold prices and DJIMI) have a significant positive influence on JII. Second, in the long run domestic factors (inflation) and foreign factors (KLSE) have a significant negative influence on JII. This research is expected to provide benefits for academics and researchers who are interested in examining the factors that influence the Islamic capital market index in Indonesia.

The Influence of Inflation, Exchange Rates, World Oil Prices and World Gold Prices on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index

This study aims to examine inflation, exchange rates, world oil prices and world gold prices against the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index for the 2017-2021 period. The method used in this study is the historical method which is distributive causal in nature, meaning that research is conducted to analyze a past situation and indicate the direction of the relationship between variables. The data collection technique used is documentation taken through online data files from the internet. The data used in this study is secondary data in which the data is obtained indirectly from statistical data and published data. Data analysis used multiple linear regression analysis. The results of the study show that the variables Inflation, Exchange Rates, World Oil Prices, World Gold Prices simultaneously have an influence on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. It can be seen that the calculated F value (97.929) > F table (2.54) and a significance value of 0.000 <0.05. So it can be concluded that Inflation, Exchange Rates, World Oil Prices and World Gold Prices simultaneously (together) have a significant effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index. In addition, from the results of the determination test, the calculated R2 coefficient (determination coefficient) is 0.855 (85.5%).

The Impact of Oil Prices on State Budget Income and Expenses: Case of Azerbaijan

Since Azerbaijan is one of the oil exporting countries, its macroeconomic indicators, especially the exchange rate, the state budget are highly dependent on the oil factor. This study assessed the role of oil in the economy and the impact of the oil factor on the revenues and expenditures of the state budget of Azerbaijan in manat and dollar terms. The study covers the period 2005m03 − 2022m05. Unit root (Augmented Dickey−Fuller (ADF), Phillips−Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski−Phillips−Schmidt−Shin (KPSS)) tests were applied to check the stationarity of variables (time series). ARDL was applied as a research method. In terms of the reliability of the obtained results, the error correction model (ECM) was used, standard tests were carried out, and the joint integration methods of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR were also applied in the evaluation. Engel−Granger and Phillips−Ouliaris tests have been used to test for cointegration interactions between variables. Short−term, long−term, and strong associations between variables were also calculated. The results of the study showed that the state budget depends on the oil and gas sector, and fluctuations in world oil prices functionally and along the chain affect oil revenues and the state budget. A different impact of oil prices (oil revenues) on the state budget in terms of manat and dollar was the devaluation of the manat, which was carried out to reduce the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on Azerbaijan. The general conclusion of the study was a recommendation to further accelerate work on the diversification of the economy and the development of the non−oil sector. The results of the conducted research can serve as a scientific basis for the economic policy of the state aimed at reducing the impact of external oil price shocks on the economy of Azerbaijan and other similar oil−exporting countries, including on the state budget, and diversifying the economy. The functional dependencies of the income and expenses of the state budget in terms of manat and dollar on world oil prices are given below.

Kenaikan Harga Minyak Dunia dan Implikasinya Terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia di Masa Pandemi Covid-19

At the beginning of 2020, the world was shaken by a health crisis due to the spread of the covid-19 virus. This not only has an impact on health, but also on the development of the world economy, one of which is Indonesia. Economic developments in the petroleum industry play a crucial role in the Indonesian economy, as a source of income in exports and imports for the state budget as well as a source of energy (especially petroleum) to drive various sectors of life throughout Indonesia. Restricted human movement directly causes a decrease in demand for petroleum. In addition to reducing consumption, Covid-19 has also had an impact on decreasing oil and gas prices and production, including the cessation of upstream activities and a reduction in refinery activities. The recommendations put forward are oil production under the influence of Covid-19 and the profits obtained from selling it. The impact of the increase in world oil prices on the State Budget is the increasing burden of fuel subsidies and electricity subsidies. This will trigger an increase in the budget deficit or in a broader perspective will spur fiscal sustainability.

Factors Affecting on the Stock Price Index in Vietnam

This study measures the influence of macroeconomic factors including consumer price index, exchange rate, Vietnam bond interest rate, world oil price and world gold price on stock price index (VNI) in the period from October 2017 to October 2022. By quantitative research method, the sturdy shows that the exchange rate has a negative impact on the stock price index; the world gold price and the world oil price have the same impact on VNI.

Performance Test of 1500 cc Fuel Motorcycle Using Pertalite – Bioethanol Mixture Fuel on Exhaust Gas

The increasing world oil prices followed by the increasing demand for fossil fuels as well as the issue of the energy crisis and global warming which demands a better level of environmental quality have encouraged the government to take good policies in overcoming them. Currently the world has been thinking about alternative energy that can be used for diesel or otto motors. One of the alternative fuels developed is alcohol fuel. Alcohol is a type of hydrocarbon in which one of the hydrogen atoms is replaced by the hydroxyl radical OH. Many agricultural products in Indo-nesia have the potential to be developed as bioethanol. In this study, the effect of adding bioethanol on pertalite fuel will be studied. This is because pertalite is a fuel that is in accordance with the demands of automotive needs and developments. This study aims to determine the comparison of power, torque, and air-fuel ratio as well as to determine the comparison of the content of exhaust gas compounds tested on the Toyota Vios Limo 1500CC car using pertalite (E0) fuel, 10% pertalite-bioethanol mixture (E10). and 15% (E15), 20% (E20). The test results obtained that the calorific value of Pertalite fuel is 49411.98 kJ/kg, 10% gasohol has a value of 46764.82 kJ/kg, 15% gasohol has a value of 44262.82 kJ/kg, and then 20% gasohol has a val-ue of 45735.42 kJ/kg. The test results obtained an average torque and power per-formance of 10% gasohol fuel of 109.09 Nm and 71.73 HP. The highest air-fuel ratio in fuel but the table shows the highest air-fuel ratio in 15% gasohol fuel is 15.46 and then the lowest air-fuel ratio in 10% gasohol fuel is 11.58. Exhaust emis-sion levels for each compound tested for each fuel are still below the standard vehicle exhaust emission thresholds set by Toyota and the environmental agency.

The impacts of the 1973 and 1979 oil crisis on Central and Eastern European countries

The 1973 and 1979 oil crisis had profound impacts on the global economy. As a result of the Yom Kippur War in October of 1973, world oil prices quintupled between 1973 and 1974. The crisis was structural in its nature and led to the end of postwar prosperity in Europe. In Western Europe and the United States, economic slowdown was coupled with persistently high inflation and rising unemployment rates. The situation of the world economy was further exacerbated by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, which had widespread negative consequences. Additionally, the 1979 Iranian Revolution resulted in another “oil crisis” and caused a severe recession. Despite the harsh propaganda, based on Marxist-Leninist ideology, the Soviet bloc had to face a permanent economic crisis from the mid-1970s. The socialist countries postponed the introduction of structural reforms in their national economies and preserved their obsolete production and export sectors. Due to the lack of adjustment to the changed circumstances in the world economy, the structural crisis became deeper and prolonged more in Central and Eastern Europe than in the West. This paper aims to highlight the impacts of fundamental changes brought by the oil crisis on the socialist countries. It also evaluates the main reasons of economic slowdown and growing indebtedness of the region.

The Impact of Volatility, Liquidity, and Crude Oil Price Index on Cryptocurrency Returns (Testing the Weak-Form Market Efficiency) Period January 2019 - June 2021

Since it was first founded by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008, cryptocurrencies have attracted the attention of investors significantly. Until now, many investors have invested their money in cryptocurrencies. This study aims to prove and analyze the effect of volatility, liquidity and world oil price indices on cryptocurrency returns. It also examines whether the occurrence of market efficiency is weak or not. This study aims to prove and analyze weak efficiency market and the impact of liquidity, volatility and the world oil price index on the return of the cryptocurrency market. This study uses quantitative methods and secondary data, so that the number of samples taken are 3 types of cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance Coin) which are listed on coinmarketcap.com and investing.com, as well as the oil price index taken from investing.com The analytical methods used in this study are series correlation test and runs test as well as multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that volatility and liquidity affect the efficiency of the cryptocurrency market while the oil price index has no effect. The results of autocorrelation test on return itself prove that these coins have weak form efficiency. Keywords: Market Efficiency, Cryptocurrency, Liquidity, Oil Price Index, Volatility

Analisis Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah Terhadap Pengangguran Dengan Inflasi Sebagai Variabel Moderating di Indonesia

This research is intended to know the influence of world oil price, economic growth, and government expenditure on unemployem with inflation as moderating variables in Indonesia. Population in this research is Indonesia and 22 of them were selected to be the samples for this research through purposive sampling technique. Estimates conducted by the multiple regression analysis. The data that were used in this study were secondary data, consisted of World Oil Price, Economic Growth and Government Expenditure to Unemployemnt for the year 2000-2021. The results of this research, that Based on the partial test (t test), the World Oil Price, Economic Growth, and Government Expenditure have significant effect on the variables of the Unemployment in Indonesia, the simultan test (F test), World Oil Price, Economic Growth and Government Expenditure have a significant effect on the variables of the Unemployment. The inflation are unable to moderate the relationship between world oil price, economic growth and government expenditure on the unemployment.

THE IMPACT OF THE POLICY ON RISING FUEL PRICES ON INCREASING POVERTY RATES IN INDONESIA

The surge in world oil prices was caused by the impact of the war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine. As a result of this war impacted the increase in oil prices almost all over the world. The existence of a surge in world oil is considered to have a significant impact on economic conditions in Indonesia. From now on, referred to as BBM, the amount of subsidized fuel oil worth almost 520 trillion is very burdensome and drains the state budget. Hence, the government considers it very urgent to increase the price of subsidized and non-subsidized fuel. Carry out meticulous and accurate calculations in calculating the fuel price increases in the country. The increase in the impact of the fuel price increase will have implications for inflation, so in the end, it will also affect the number of poor people in Indonesia. This study aims to determine the impact of the policy of increasing fuel prices on increasing the number of poor people in Indonesia. This study uses a qualitative approach with a descriptive method. The results of the study show that the reason for the policy of increasing fuel prices is to reduce the world's supply of crude oil, which does not match supply and demand, also because the existing subsidies have not been well targeted, where these subsidies are enjoyed mainly by middle and upper-class people. As for the impact of the increase in fuel prices for the community, among others, the increase in the price of goods and services, increasing the fare of public transportation, raising the prices of nine basic needs, hampering the rate of economic growth and decreasing the number of unemployed. The government can take policies in response to the increase in fuel prices to control and stabilize the prices of basic needs, provide direct assistance to the underprivileged, increase fuel prices gradually and issue regulations that limit motor vehicle ownership.

Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Directions and Trends in Russian-Chinese Economic and Trade Cooperation

The recovery of the global economy after the epidemic was already slow, and the outbreak of conflict between Russia and Ukraine further slowed the pace of recovery, which had an important impact on the global economy. In terms of energy prices, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, world oil and gas prices have risen sharply, and the European region, which is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas resources, has been hit hard. The direct impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on China cannot be called significant, but the indirect impact should not be underestimated. The Chinese economy is facing the effects of imported inflation driven by rising international prices for commodities such as oil, gas and wheat. Tough sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have affected Russia's import-export chains. In this turbulent situation, Russia and China insist on strengthening economic and trade cooperation in the interests of both sides. In the current situation, Chinese companies need to pay attention to effective risk control when expanding their business in Russia, especially when proposing medium- and long-term investment projects. On the one hand, Chinese companies need to be familiar with the new international financing rules and new means of payment under Western sanctions. On the other hand, they also need to better understand the new needs of the Russian market and learn the laws of domestic and international business change in order to reduce the multitude of uncertainties in project operations.

Modelling the Impact of World Oil Prices and the Mining and Quarrying Sector on the United Arab Emirates’ GDP

In this research, we aimed to model the impact of world oil prices on the gross domestic product of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The objective of the study was to determine the transmission mechanism of the influence of the changing oil price within the macroeconomic indicators of the UAE. In this study, we analysed the impact of world oil prices and the crude oil sector on economic growth in the UAE for the period of 2001–2020 by applying ADF, OLS, ARDL, and Granger causality techniques. The results also showed the direct impact of the changes in oil prices on the GDP of the UAE in the short and long terms; in other words, a decline in oil prices could pose a threat to the economic security of the UAE in the long term if appropriate corrective measures are not taken. In order to avoid these negative consequences of the oil price crisis, in this study, we emphasize that the only alternative to exporting oil is to diversify economic sources for long-term development and increase the efficiency of non-oil sectors.

Dynamic linkages between Islamic equity indices, oil prices, gold prices, and news-based uncertainty: New insights from partial and multiple wavelet coherence

This study examines the dynamic relationships between Islamic stocks, oil prices, gold prices, and global policy uncertainty. We used monthly data for the Dow Jones world Islamic stock index, oil prices, and global policy uncertainty from 1996M1 to 2018M12. We employed a cointegration approach, a discrete wavelet, a wavelet-based Granger causality test, a continuous wavelet, wavelet coherence, partial wavelet coherence, and multiple wavelet coherence. The findings of the study exhibit strong bi-directional Granger causality for both the original and decomposed series among the variables considered. Wavelet coherence revealed positive coherence between gold prices and Islamic stocks, negative coherence between gold prices and Islamic stocks due to global policy uncertainty, negative medium-run coherence between gold prices and oil prices during crisis periods, and positive coherence between oil prices and Islamic stocks. By adding new series, MWC always has a stronger correlation than PWC in the short, medium, and long term.

Energy Subsidy and Price Dynamics In Indonesia

The downward trend of the world oil prices in recent years has put profound consideration among countries to reform the energy subsidy policies. Examination of the inflationary impact of the reform has become essential due to possible welfare consequences. This study aims to reveal the impact of energy subsidy on the prices in Indonesia by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to capture short-run dynamics and long-run cointegration between dependent and independent variables in the period 1980-2017. The finding of this research indicated that the impact of the energy subsidy is significant for the short-run and the long-run periods. Regarding the result, the government of Indonesia is advised to reform carefully by applying energy subsidy policy gradually and protecting vulnerable poor households.

The Effect of World Oil Prices, Silver Prices, Exchange Rates, Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the SRI Kehati Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period January 2021–December 2021

Currently, awareness of the importance of environmental sustainability is a trend that is carried out by many countries in the world with the term Go Green. Awareness of Importance protecting the environment is currently supported by the publication of public policies related to this matter. So that the SRI Kehati Index was formed in 2009. 
 This study focuses on the object of research the influence of world oil prices, silver prices, USD exchange rate, the Dow Jones Industrial Index on the SRI Kehati Stock Price Index in the period January 2021 to December 2021, and obtained a total of 247 data. The method chosen for this research is the Ordinary Least Square method with classical assumption test, f test, t test, multiple linear regression analysis, and coefficient of determination test. The test results conclude that partially oil prices, silver prices, the Dow Jones index and the USD exchange rate have a significant influence. Simultaneously. Oil prices, silver prices, the Dow Jones index and the USD exchange rate were tested together against the Y variable, namely the SRI Kehati Index. With adjusted results 0.424210 or 42.42% while the rest is shown in the variables not examined in this study.

How Long Can Macroeconomic Variables Affect the Islamic Index in Indonesia?

<p><em>This study aimed to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables' lags on Indonesia's Islamic index. The influence of lag can determine how long macroeconomic variables affect the Islamic index. The macroeconomic variables observed for their impact on the Islamic index are inflation, industrial production index, interest rates, exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, and world oil prices from May 2011 to December 2021. The approach used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that the lags of macroeconomic variables influence the sharia index. The time it takes to affect the stock varies. Inflation, gold prices, and the money supply need a minimum of 1 month to affect stock prices. Industrial production indices and exchange rates have a high-speed ability to influence stock price movements at that time. Interest rates and world oil prices take at least three months to affect stock prices.</em></p>

The hybrid model of autoregressive integrated moving average and fuzzy time series Markov chain on long-memory data

IntroductionThe price of crude oil as an essential commodity in the world economy shows a pattern and identifies the component factors that influence it in the short and long term. The long pattern of the price movement of crude oil is identified by a fractionally time series model where the accuracy can still be improved by making a hybrid residual model using a fuzzy time series approach.MethodsTime series data containing long-memory elements can be modified into a stationary model through the autoregressive fractional integrated moving average (ARFIMA). This fractional model can provide better accuracy on long-memory data than the classic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The long-memory data are indicated by a high level of fluctuation and the autocorrelation value between lags that decreases slowly. However, a more accurate model is proposed as a hybridization time series model with fuzzy time series Markov chain (FTSMC).ResultsThe time series data collected from the monthly period of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price as the standard for world oil prices for the 2003–2021 time period. The data of WTI oil price has a long-memory data pattern to be modeled fractionally, and subsequently their hybrids. The times series model of crude oil price is obtained as the new target model of hybrid ARIMA and ARFIMA with FTSMC, denoted as ARIMA-FTSMC and ARFIMA-FTSMC, respectively.DiscussionThe accuracy model measured by MAE, RMSE, and MAPE shows that the hybrid model of ARIMA-FTSMC has better performance than ARIMA and ARFIMA, but the hybrid model of ARFIMA-FTSMC provides the best accuracy compared to all models. The superiority of the hybrid time series model of ARFIMA-FTSMC on long-memory data provides an opportunity for the hybrid model as the best and more precise forecasting method.