World's Largest Economy Research Articles

Promising areas of scientific and technological transformation of the world's largest economies

Subject. The article addresses indicators characterizing the level of scientific and technological development of the world's major economies as of 2023. Objectives. The purpose is to examine trends and promising areas of scientific and technological transformation of the world's largest economies within the framework of global relevant concepts. Methods. The study employs methods of descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analysis, with the construction of a dendrogram of distribution of countries into clusters by the Ward's method. The statistical databases of the World Bank for 2022–2023 served as an information base. Results. The paper presents an overview of popular areas of domestic and foreign research within the topic under consideration, determines the circle of the largest economies in the world by the largest volume of GDP at purchasing power parity, assesses the level of scientific and technological development of the world's largest economies, defines the key parameters of scientific and technological transformation, and classifies countries by level of development based on methods of economic and mathematical modeling, provides a developed conceptual model of global scientific and technological transformation. Conclusions. The findings are of interest to government-specific governance structures and can be integrated into programs for scientific and technological transformation of industry within the framework of global concepts, taking into account potential spillover effects expressed in the form of expanding opportunities for diversification and commercialization of domestic research and development.

An Overview of China and Japan Economic Relations and Interdependence

This paper explores the evolving economic relationship and interdependence between China and Japan, two of the world's largest economies. Since the normalization of diplomatic relations, Sino-Japanese economic ties have expanded from simple trade to a comprehensive, multi-faceted partnership, encompassing bilateral trade, investment, financial cooperation, and regional integration. Despite challenges such as anti-globalization, trade protectionism, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is significant potential for collaboration in emerging fields like the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and public health. The analysis reveals an asymmetric interdependence, with China exhibiting sensitivity but not vulnerability in this relationship. This dynamic has implications for both countries' economic policies and regional stability. The paper also examines the role of power asymmetries and the strategic adjustments made by Japan, including its increased engagement with India.It concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding this complex relationship for the development of future economic policies and regional stability.

The Impact of Fed Rate Hikes on The Chinese Economy

The United States is the world's largest economy and a major financial center. As the central bank of the United States, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions not only have a significant impact on the country's economic and trade development, but also lead to changes in global capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, and international trade conditions. Since March 2022, persistent high inflation and overheating of the economy have led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates dozens of times. As of September 2023, the Federal Reserve's interest rate has increased from 0 to 5.5%. The total rate hike by the Federal Reserve has reached 550 basis points. As the US dollar is the world's reserve currency, China's economy inevitably experiences varying degrees of impact. Therefore, studying the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes on the Chinese economy will help our country formulate better response measures and reduce its adverse effects on our economy.

Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Poultry Trade on China's Chicken Prices

Abstract: The trade relationship between China and the United States, two of the world's largest economies, is of significant global importance, particularly in the agricultural sector. This sector plays a crucial role in both nations' economies, contributing substantially to their GDPs and employment rates.This paper delves into the intricate dynamics of poultry trade between China and the United States, focusing on its impact on chicken prices in China. Utilizing comprehensive datasets spanning from 2007 to 2022 sourced from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the study employs static economic analysis and regression techniques to explore the factors influencing poultry prices. The findings substantiated the hypothesis posited: a rise in poultry trade volume between the U.S. and China correlates with a decrease in chicken prices in China. Findings reveal a complex relationship between trade dynamics and price movements, providing insights into the broader economic and trade policies shaping agricultural trade between these two economic powerhouses.

China's Foreign Exchange Market: Research on Problems and Countermeasures

The foreign exchange derivative market plays a vital role in the global economy. As one of the world's largest economies, China has already recognized the significance of establishing a well-regulated foreign exchange market. However, the Chinese foreign exchange market still faces several challenges. There are four main challenges: regional disparities in development, low level of diversification, high market risks, and inadequate regulation. These issues should draw public’s further attention and get resolution. This paper aims to analyze the four problems above in China's foreign exchange derivatives market and propose feasible solutions, including alleviating the imbalance problem, strengthening market diversification, reducing information asymmetry and strengthening the government supervision, which help to address the identified problems. The research findings are also helpful for some market participants and policymakers to understand the shortcomings of China's foreign exchange derivatives market better, and thus designate more rigorous trading strategies and improve the environment for China's foreign exchange derivatives market.

A Study of the Impact of Monetary Policies on Financial Crisis

Monetary policy stands as a pivotal instrument for macroeconomic management, pivotal in stabilizing economies, fostering growth, and mitigating inflationary pressures. In the wake of global financial upheavals, the efficacy and adaptability of monetary policy have garnered heightened scrutiny. The United States, boasting the world's largest economy, and the Federal Reserve, a stalwart among central banks, wield profound influence on global financial dynamics via their policy decisions. Each action taken by the Federal Reserve reverberates across borders, profoundly impacting numerous nations. Amidst global financial turmoil, the Federal Reserve's role assumes paramount significance. These crises inflict profound repercussions on both national economies and individual livelihoods. This paper endeavors to delve into the historical influence of United States monetary policy and the Federal Reserve on global financial crises, scrutinizing their interventions and assessing their efficacy. By tracing their impact across different epochs, this study aims to provide insights into the mechanisms through which monetary policy shapes the trajectory of global financial crises, shedding light on avenues for improvement and resilience-building measures.

ПЕРЕВАГИ ТА НЕДОЛІКИ АВТОНОМНИХ СОНЯЧНИХ ЕЛЕКТРОСТАНЦІЙ

The article examines the state of research and practice of using autonomous solar power plants, the advantages and disadvantages of their use in everyday life. The main concepts of solar energy, autonomy and components of solar power plants are considered. Current normative documents regarding the researched issue are considered. Solar energy is obtained from solar radiation and can be transformed into electricity or heat. It is freely available, and thanks to advances in technology, we can now use even more of the solar energy that is constantly available to us. Solar energy has the least negative impact on the environment compared to any other energy source. It does not emit greenhouse gases and does not pollute water. Its maintenance also requires very little water, unlike, for example, nuclear power plants, which require 20 times more water. The production of solar energy does not create any noise, which is a big advantage, since many solar installations, such as residential solar panels, are located in urban areas. Solar power plants are quite innovative equipment. Solar energy is one of the most dynamically developing branches of alternative (renewable) energy. Solar energy is developing at an increasing pace and has already turned into a powerful industry in the world's largest economies. In Ukraine, the growth rate of solar energy accelerated this year. Solar energy for residential buildings is a hot topic today.

Threats to conservation from national security interests.

There is a growing trend of nation states invoking national security and emergency declarations to build state-sponsored infrastructure projects for border defense, energy production, and transportation. Established laws, regulations, and agreements for the protection of nature and cultural heritage within and between countries are becoming secondary to national security, compromising the function of protected areas, such as national parks, wilderness areas, and biosphere reserves that safeguard biodiversity, climate, and human health. We considered cases where decades-long multinational cross-border endangered species recovery programs have been jeopardized by waivers of environmental protection laws to facilitate rapid construction of border barriers that impede the movement and migration of animals, such as at the US-Mexico and Poland-Belarus borders. Renewable energy megaprojects, such as the Pinacate solar plant in Mexico, coupled with power transmission lines and road networks likewise cast a large footprint on the land and are being carried out with minimal to no environmental compliance under the guise of national security. National sovereignty likewise has been used as justification for bypassing laws to proceed with similar projects, such as Mexico's Dos Bocas refinery and Poland's Vistula Spit canal. Emphasis on security is also apparent in increasing military expenditure by the world's largest economies, which has created a mismatch with improvement in environmental policy stringency. Decisions to prioritize security can undermine democratic principles and environmental review protocols, trivialize humanity's dependence on functioning ecosystems, and contradict the United Nation's resolution on the human right to a healthy environment. Framing infrastructure projects as matters of national security also foments civil and political unrest by the labeling and casting of dissenters, including conservation scientists and environmental defenders, as antinational. World leaders must refrain from misusing extraordinary powers, adhere to laws and international agreements, and consult experts and local people before taking unilateral action on projects that affect ecological and human communities.

An Empirical Analysis of the Central Bank of China's Monetary Policy and the Impact of its Communications on Market Interest Rates, Liquidity and Credit

As one of the largest world's economies, China’s economy plays an important role at regional and global levels. In this context, with the fast opening steps of the Chinese economy to international markets, the Chinese Central Bank (PBC or PBOC) has adjusted its mechanisms to the needs of local and international economies. Chinese monetary policy is designed to keep prices and economic growth stable and to ensure the country’s economic development. The Chinese Central Bank has a significant influence over Chinese interest rates, interbank rates, and changes in liquidity and credit. The main goal of this research paper is to describe the role of the Chinese Central Bank in delivering Chinese monetary policy and its changes over the past few years. Our research paper is dedicated to verifying how the Chinese Central Bank's press releases are useful indicators for the future trend of market interest rates after constructing a numerical index representative of expansive or restrictive net signals contained in any of the PBC Communications examined. An empirical analysis over Chinese Monetary Policy Communications (Reports) is included in this research paper, presenting how the Central Bank of China is implementing its monetary policy in order to influence the development of its economic growth through its market interest rates, liquidity and credit movement.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment Management on Economic Growth Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR)

Global economies are facing geopolitical and ongoing economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, which brings back the topic of growth determinants. This study focuses on the United States, the world's largest economy and a significant recipient of foreign direct investment (FDI). For this reason, we analysed whether there is a positive correlation between the volume of FDI inflows and the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was used to examine the effects of various exogenous control variables on the quarterly GDP growth in the USA from 1999 to 2022. During these 96 quarters, FDI was found to have a positive effect on GDP growth at statistical significance of 5% (p < 0.05). Specifically, a one-million increase in FDI ceteris paribus caused an estimated GDP growth of approximately 743.43 dollars. The results ultimately propose positive implications for less developed countries that could utilize emphasising their FDI management policies to achieve higher economic growth.

The Impact and Issues of Portfolio Rebalancing Channel in Quantitative Easing During COVID-19

As the largest black swan event in recent years, the COVID-19 has affected the development of the global economy. As the world's largest economy and one of the countries with the most severe epidemic, the United States has suffered a heavy economic blow. To promote economic recovery, the Federal Reserve has adopted a series of loose policies. This includes the most typical quantitative easing policy. Through literature research, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the portfolio rebalancing channel in quantitative easing on the US economy. Quantitative easing policies can promote economic recovery to a certain extent, and the channel of portfolio rebalancing is also feasible in theory, but there are uncertainties in the factors affecting the economic environment. When solving the problem of high inflation caused by QE and active fiscal policy, it will have a negative impact on the current economy and enterprises. The government also needs to further consider the balance of economic development.

Failure of India's Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) Mechanism as a Climate Finance Policy

As one of the world's largest economies and a developing nation with significant vulnerabilities to a changing climate, India has taken efforts to address climate change through various policies and initiatives. Climate finance policies play a crucial role in supporting developing countries in their transition to low‐carbon and climate‐resilient pathways. However, despite India's commitment to climate action, there have been instances where certain climate finance policies have failed to achieve their intended objectives. This article examines the failure of a specific climate finance policy in India and analyses the factors contributing to its shortcomings.

ТОРГОВЕЛЬНА ВІЙНА МІЖ США ТА КИТАЄМ: МАСШТАБИ ТА НАСЛІДКИ ДЛЯ СВІТОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article is devoted to the study of the trade war between the USA and China, its scope and consequences for the world economy. The reasons that led to the escalation of trade conflicts between the two largest world economies are analyzed. The role of tariffs, sanctions and other trade restrictions, which were introduced by both countries within the framework of the escalation of American-Chinese trade relations, is highlighted. The authors compiled a SWOT analysis of trade relations between the United States and China, which made it possible to determine the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the economies in the context of worsening trade relations. Based on the authors' chronology of the development of trade relations between the United States and China, the stages of the formation and development of international trade relations in the conditions of competition between countries for sales markets, the stages of the emergence and escalation of trade conflicts, and the stages of increasing the scale of the consequences of trade clashes were substantiated. The analysis of the main indicators of international trade between the USA and China in 1999-2022 allowed the authors to draw conclusions about the intensity of the increase in the strength of trade relations during the studied period, and China's membership in the WTO became a catalyst and ensured an «explosion of trade between countries». This jump in imports is partly due to China's leading position in global value chains. An analysis of the impact of trade restrictions on exports and imports of both countries, as well as on global supply chains and world trade in general, has been carried out. The impact of the trade war on commodity prices, GDP growth, and investment activity has been studied. The consequences of the trade war for the USA and China are substantiated, which made it possible to determine the most vulnerable sectors of the economy due to the tension in trade relations. Opportunities and challenges arising as a result of the conflict have been identified. Possible ways of resolving the conflict and its consequences for international trade and the geopolitical situation are analyzed. Therefore, the resolution of the conflict and the search for a compromise are key factors for easing the tension and reducing the negative consequences for the world economy. Settlement of the trade conflict and preservation of an open and fair international trade order are important for the stable development of the global economy.

Resources extraction and geopolitical risk: A novel perspective of World's biggest economies

During the last three decades, the issue of the nexus between natural resource extraction and economic growth is still unresolved. Due to conflicting evidence regarding natural resources' role in economic development and the absence of empirical assessment concerning geopolitical risk, this study examines the nexus between these variables in the World's largest economies from 1989 to 2021. This study used panel diagnostic tests to validate the non-normal distribution, slope heterogeneity, and cross-section dependence. Three cointegration estimators validate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the study variables. Using the non-parametric approach, this study found that natural resource extraction, geopolitical risk, and financial development boost these economies' economic growth and performance throughout quantiles. In contrast, the findings validate renewable energy consumption's adverse influence on economic growth across quantiles. The bootstrap quantile regression authenticates the empirical findings as a robust panel estimator. This study suggests efficient extraction and utilization of natural resources, improved financial sector, and reduced geopolitical risk to accelerate economic performance and growth. Also, this study recommends further investment in research and development to enhance renewable production and its efficient consumption.

Sustainability innovation index for micro, small and medium enterprises and their support ecosystems based on an empirical study in India

Competitiveness of a country depends on the innovation capacity of its industries while sustainability relies upon the adoption of cleaner production processes. Hence, to promote economic development without negative environmental impact, it is imperative to have appropriate development policies and also a sound instrument to monitor the effectiveness of the supporting ecosystem. India, one of the world's largest economies with a huge base of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), makes it a perfect sample for creating an Index to measure innovation for sustainability and adds to the empirical literature. The study identifies the determinants of innovation and the key drivers using multivariate tools on the empirical data collected from the MSMEs in 4 key sectors that have Social, Economic, and Environmental relevance. The findings suggest that “Market sources” is the most influential determinant of innovation, followed by “Institutional sources”, “Market sophistication” and “Business Membership Organisations”. Further, findings of the Principal Component Analysis revealed that “Productivity and Profitability” consideration is the most important driver for adoption of innovation for sustainability by MSME units. The other drivers are “Regulatory and Occupational Health and Safety Needs”; “Immediate Survival Needs”; “Raw Material and other Cost Issues”; “Developmental Support”, and “Competition from Similar Units”. Based on the relative importance of these factors, an index is created to measure the effectiveness of the innovation ecosystem. The paper also suggests the use of this index to assess the strength of the ecosystem at the national, sectoral, regional or state, and district or cluster level. This study offers promising avenues for future research ideas for evidence-based policy formulation.

Analysis of the machine tool industry of modern Russia based on the «Anna Karenina method»

The machine tool industry is the most important industry, the state of which largely determines the level of development of mechanical engineering and the national economy as a whole. For the purposes of import substitution, it is necessary, in fact, to rebuild the machine tool industrial complex from bearing factories to machine tool assembly production, mobilize engineering personnel and begin to train new ones. Of course, Russian business alone, without the help of the state, cannot cope with this task. The work carried out a retrospective analysis of the machine tool industry in Russia. In particular, the article presents a table that examines the main indicators characterizing the development of the machine tool market in Russia. Based on the results of the analysis of the metalworking equipment market in the period from 2016 to 2020, a trend of stagnation in the volume of consumption of this equipment and the machine tool industry can be identified. To solve problems in the machine tool industry, it is proposed to use the method of industry mapping of the industry for the purposes of both monitoring the current state and assessing the needs of key enterprises and the industry as a whole in the near future. It is shown that the machine tool industry in Russia has become an excellent example illustrating the «Anna Karenina principle», especially in comparison with the world's largest economies; its current state is the result of many events that are described in the article. The authors are convinced that by producing domestic means of production, from machine tools and equipment to electronic machines, our country is able to provide itself with all the necessary products of its own production — from consumer goods to necessary agricultural equipment and defense products.

Application of ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing Method in GDP Prediction of the United States

The GDP of the United States always attracts the global attention. It represents the strength of the world's largest economy and the per capita living standard of developed countries. Therefore, many scholars try to use various methods to predict it. On the basis of previous research, this paper collects the Fred’s quarterly U.S. GDP data, uses ARIMA model and exponential smoothing to model the US's GDP from 1950 to 2021. Then, the authors compare the actual values with the predicted values to select a better model. After that, the established model is used to forecast the US's GDP. The results show that the two methods generally maintain a high degree of fit, but the error generated increases with the widening of the expected range. Among these two methods, the average error value of the exponential smoothing method is slightly smaller than ARIMA, but ARIMA's forecasts are more accurate in the early. Therefore, ARIMA should be used preferentially for the forecast in the short term and the exponential smoothing method should be preferred for long-term forecasts. Furthermore, we use the exponential smoothing method to make a short-term forecast for the U.S. GDP by the fourth quarter of 2023. The results show that the U.S. GDP will increase at an average rate of 0.9344%, and the upward trend is stable and cyclical. Finally, the result of the above provides an effective basis for the US economic construction work and plays an inspirational role for China's economic policy formulation.

IDENTIFICATION OF KEY DETERMINANTS OF SUCCESS FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SERVICES CENTRES (IFSCS) WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA THROUGH GLOBAL FINANCIAL CENTRE INDEX (GFCIS) ANALYSIS AND FACTOR ANALYSIS

The History of International Financial Services Centers (IFSCs) is very long, dating back more than 150 years. Many countries established International Financial Centres (IFCs) to offer International Financial Services (IFS) at various stages of their economic growth. Over time, some of the important hubs for international financial services included London, Tokyo, New York, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and Singapore. These Centers created a large number of jobs and helped the economies of the countries in which they operate to grow. Around 119 centres have been established worldwide to meet the need for international financial services in over 196 countries (GFCI, 2015-2022). India's economy was opened in 1991, but capital account convertibility hasn't been achieved, therefore its influence on the world financial market is viewed as minimal. One of the world's largest economies and a significant consumer of IFS, India very recently announced the creation of IFSC in April 2015. Given how closely the global market is connected via technology, it is essential for India to set up IFSC and appear on the map of the world's financial centre. It is predicted that India is losing US $50 billion year (2015) without an IFSC, and that loss will increase to US $ 120 billion by 2025.
 This paper identifies key determinants of success for IFSC in India by using the two analytical tools namely Global Financial Centre Index (GFCI) analysis in global context and the Factor Analysis in Indian context and finds that IFSC in India, though being a new financial service centre, can certainly increase its competitiveness and become a sustainable successful financial centre more quickly by focusing on the factors identified in this study and the economic impact of IFSC growth in India would be profound.

Anti-crisis management of insurance companies

The article analyzes various approaches to defining the concept of anti-crisis management, in which anti-crisis management is interpreted as a set of measures of the state (anti-crisis management at the macro level) and the management of a specific financial institution (anti-crisis management at the micro level). The data on the change in macroeconomic indicators of the world's leading economies and the risks to the global economy provoked by russia's full-scale war against Ukraine are collected and systematized. The current state of the world economy, the processes that the full-scale invasion initiated in it, the magnitude of the growth of energy prices, interest rates, inflation rates in the context of the world's largest economies, macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine, namely the scale of the collapse of the Ukrainian economy as a result of the war, the dynamics of GDP, inflation, and the forecast dynamics of the inflation rate are studied. The author assesses the current state of the insurance market, the approximate amount of its losses, the main indicators of insurers' activities, such as the volume of insurance premiums, insurance payments, the level of payments, the level of reinsurance, changes in the structure of the insurance portfolio of insurers, the unprofitability or profitability of a particular type of insurance, and the impact of global economic processes on the insurance market of Ukraine. The author analyzes the feasibility of taking anti-crisis management measures at the level of legislation, state regulation, control and supervision, management of insurance, investment and financial activities of Ukrainian insurers. The author examines the operational measures taken by the management of domestic insurance market participants in the first days of the war to reduce the impact of the most catastrophic threats to the financial condition of companies, life and health of their employees, etc. The author provides a list of the main anti-crisis management strategies for restoring the economic potential of insurers and analyzes the ways to reduce the impact of a full-scale invasion of the insurance market and restore the insurance market, and the measures taken by insurers today to adapt the activities of insurance companies in wartime.

The US Policy of Sanctions and Restrictions against China. Beijing’s Tactical Countermeasures and Strategic Counteraction Potential

A sharp reversal of the Chinese vector of the US foreign policy inevitably came with the election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2017, whose entire election campaign was accompanied by accentuated anti-Chinese rhetoric. Beijing’s response to the powerful pressure of the Trump administration was not the curtailment of state industrial development programs (Made in China – 2025, etc.) required by Washington, but the proclamation of a course to ensure the country’s economic security, increase the level of technological self-sufficiency, further strengthen the role of the domestic market and reduce dependence on exports. In particular, the latest provisions were included in the “double circulation” policy adopted in October 2020. By now, Washington has imposed on China, though sensitive, still limited sanctions which generally do not have a significant impact on the socio-economic development of the country. Even with the WH’s firm political will, effective sanctions potential of the US against China is significantly limited due to enormous interdependence of the two largest world economies. In general, the US sanctions of recent years against China can be divided into two large blocks: officially justified by the interests of US national security (restrictions on telecommunications companies, the ban of Chinese software, etc.) and related to accusations of human rights violations (restrictions on Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of the PRC and Hong Kong SAR). However, in some cases the real reason for the restrictions imposed is the desire of the United States to contain China in the context of general political, economic and technological rivalry of the two countries.