ТОРГОВЕЛЬНА ВІЙНА МІЖ США ТА КИТАЄМ: МАСШТАБИ ТА НАСЛІДКИ ДЛЯ СВІТОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the study of the trade war between the USA and China, its scope and consequences for the world economy. The reasons that led to the escalation of trade conflicts between the two largest world economies are analyzed. The role of tariffs, sanctions and other trade restrictions, which were introduced by both countries within the framework of the escalation of American-Chinese trade relations, is highlighted. The authors compiled a SWOT analysis of trade relations between the United States and China, which made it possible to determine the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the economies in the context of worsening trade relations. Based on the authors' chronology of the development of trade relations between the United States and China, the stages of the formation and development of international trade relations in the conditions of competition between countries for sales markets, the stages of the emergence and escalation of trade conflicts, and the stages of increasing the scale of the consequences of trade clashes were substantiated. The analysis of the main indicators of international trade between the USA and China in 1999-2022 allowed the authors to draw conclusions about the intensity of the increase in the strength of trade relations during the studied period, and China's membership in the WTO became a catalyst and ensured an «explosion of trade between countries». This jump in imports is partly due to China's leading position in global value chains. An analysis of the impact of trade restrictions on exports and imports of both countries, as well as on global supply chains and world trade in general, has been carried out. The impact of the trade war on commodity prices, GDP growth, and investment activity has been studied. The consequences of the trade war for the USA and China are substantiated, which made it possible to determine the most vulnerable sectors of the economy due to the tension in trade relations. Opportunities and challenges arising as a result of the conflict have been identified. Possible ways of resolving the conflict and its consequences for international trade and the geopolitical situation are analyzed. Therefore, the resolution of the conflict and the search for a compromise are key factors for easing the tension and reducing the negative consequences for the world economy. Settlement of the trade conflict and preservation of an open and fair international trade order are important for the stable development of the global economy.