World Health Organization Mortality Database Research Articles

Global Incidence and Mortality for Prostate Cancer: Analysis of Temporal Patterns and Trends in 36 Countries

BackgroundProstate cancer (PCa) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally, but its specific geographic patterns and temporal trends are under-researched. ObjectiveTo test the hypotheses that PCa incidence is higher and PCa mortality is lower in countries with higher socioeconomic development, and that temporal trends for PCa incidence have increased while mortality has decreased over time. Design, setting, and participantsData on age-standardized incidence and mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns were assessed for 36 countries using data obtained from Cancer incidence in five continents volumes I–X and the World Health Organization mortality database. Correlations between incidence or mortality rates and socioeconomic indicators (human development index [HDI] and gross domestic product [GDP]) were evaluated. Outcome measurements and statistical analysisThe average annual percent change in PCa incidence and mortality in the most recent 10 yr according to join-point regression. Results and limitationsReported PCa incidence rates varied more than 25-fold worldwide in 2012, with the highest incidence rates observed in Micronesia/Polynesia, the USA, and European countries. Mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates except for Africa, where PCa mortality rates were the highest. Countries with higher HDI (r=0.58) and per capita GDP (r=0.62) reported greater incidence rates. According to the most recent 10-yr temporal data available, most countries experienced increases in incidence, with sharp rises in incidence rates in Asia and Northern and Western Europe. A substantial reduction in mortality rates was reported in most countries, except in some Asian countries and Eastern Europe, where mortality increased. Data in regional registries could be underestimated. ConclusionsPCa incidence has increased while PCa mortality has decreased in most countries. The reported incidence was higher in countries with higher socioeconomic development. Patient summaryThe incidence of prostate cancer has shown high variations geographically and over time, with smaller variations in mortality.

Trends in Mortality From Ischemic Heart Disease and Cerebrovascular Disease in Europe: 1980 to 2009.

Trends in cardiovascular mortality across Europe demonstrate significant geographical variation, and an understanding of these trends has a central role in global public health. Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease age-standardized death rates (as per International Classification of Diseases, ninth and tenth revisions) were collated from the World Health Organization mortality database for member states of the European Union. Trends were characterized by using Joinpoint regression analysis. An overall trend for reduction in ischemic heart disease mortality was observed, most pronounced in Western Europe (>60% for the Netherlands, United Kingdom, and Ireland) for both sexes from 1980 to 2009. Eastern European states, Romania, Croatia, and Slovakia, had modest mortality reductions. Most recently (2009), Lithuania had the highest mortality for males and females (318.1/100 000 and 166.1/100 000, respectively), followed by Latvia and Slovakia. France had the lowest mortality: 39.8/100 000 for males and 14.7/100 000 for females. Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality revealed that Austria had the largest reduction for both sexes (76.8% males, 76.5% females) from 1980 to 2009. The smallest improvement over this period was seen in Lithuania, Poland, and Cyprus (-5% to +20% approximately). France has the lowest present-day cerebrovascular disease mortality for both males and females (23.9/100 000 and 17.3/100 000, respectively). There is a growing disparity in cardiovascular mortality between Western and Eastern Europe, for which diverse explanations are discussed. The need for population-wide health promotion and primary prevention policies is emphasized.

The global decrease in cancer mortality: trends and disparities

A decrease in cancer mortality has been reported in the United States, Europe, and other high-income regions during the last two decades. Whether similar trends apply to low-to-middle income countries-and globally-is unclear. The aim of this descriptive study is to compare cancer mortality in all countries with high- or intermediate-quality data on death certificates according to the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for the years 2000 through 2010. We included 60 countries in the analysis and calculated age-adjusted mortality rates for all cancer combined and for the commonest cancers worldwide: lung, stomach, breast, colorectal, uterine, and prostate. A decrease in overall cancer mortality rate of ∼1% per year was observed in higher and lower income regions and in both sexes. In 2010, 696 000 cancer deaths were avoided on a global scale compared with 2000 rates (426 000 in men, 271 000 in women). However, the mortality of liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in females increased in many countries'. The individual risk of dying from cancer decreased in all countries with reliable data. This decrease was chiefly due to favorable trends in the commonest specific cancers. Liver cancer in both sexes and lung cancer in women, which show increasing mortality rates, constitute a priority for prevention and further research.

Adolescent Suicide Rates Between 1990 and 2009: Analysis of Age Group 15–19 Years Worldwide

PurposeThe aim of the current analysis is to analyze suicide rates in adolescents aged 15–19 years in decades between 1990 and 2009 worldwide. MethodsSuicide data were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database and population data from the World Bank Data set. In total, 81 countries or territories, having data at least for 5 years in 1990–1999 and in 2000–2009, were included in the analysis. Additional analysis for regional trends with 57 countries was performed. ResultsOver the decades considered, analysis showed a declining trend in the overall suicide rate for males from 10.30 to 9.51 per 100,000 (p = .076), and for females from 4.39 to 4.18 (p = .472). The average suicide rate showed a significant decline for both genders in Europe, dropping from 13.13 to 10.93 (p = .001) in males and from 3.88 to 3.34 in females (p = .038). There was a significant increase in South American countries for males, from 7.36 to 11.47 (p = .016), and a close to significant rise for females, from 5.59 to 7.98 (p = .053). Although other world regions did not show significant trends, there were several significant changes at country level. ConclusionsReasons behind the decrease in Western countries could potentially be related to the overall improvements in global health; the possible contribution of suicide prevention activities remains unclear. Increases in several South American countries might be related to economic recession and its impact on adolescents from diverse cultural backgrounds, and partly also to improvements in mortality registration.

Time trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring European countries 1996-2010.

What are the trends in avoidable cancer mortality in Switzerland and neighbouring countries? Mortality data and population estimates 1996-2010 were obtained from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office for Switzerland and the World Health Organization Mortality Database (http://www.who.int/healthinfo/mortality_data/en/) for Austria, Germany, France and Italy. Age standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, European standard) per 100 000 person-years were calculated for the population <75 years old by sex for the following groups of cancer deaths: (1) avoidable through primary prevention; (2) avoidable through early detection and treatment; (3) avoidable through improved treatment and medical care; and (4) remaining cancer deaths. To assess time trends in ASMRs, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated. In Switzerland and neighbouring countries cancer mortality in persons <75 years old continuously decreased 1996-2010. Avoidable cancer mortality decreased in all groups of avoidable cancer deaths in both sexes, with one exception. ASMRs for causes avoidable through primary prevention increased in females in all countries (in Switzerland from 16.2 to 20.3 per 100 000 person years, EAPC 2.0 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.6]). Compared with its neighbouring countries, Switzerland showed the lowest rates for all groups of avoidable cancer mortality in males 2008-2010. Overall avoidable cancer mortality decreased, indicating achievements in cancer care and related health policies. However, increasing trends in avoidable cancer mortality through primary prevention for females suggest there is a need in Switzerland and its European neighbouring countries to improve primary prevention.

Trends in Corpus Uteri Cancer Mortality in Member States of the European Union.

Abstract Objectives The burden of corpus uteri cancer varies in the European Union (EU). We analysed trends in corpus uteri cancer mortality in 26 EU member states from 1970 onward. Methods Population numbers and number of uterine cancer deaths were extracted from the World Health Organisation mortality database. Corpus uteri cancer mortality rates were corrected for certification problems using different reallocation rules for deaths registered as uterine cancer not otherwise specified, or using mixed disease codes. Join point regression was used to study the annual percentage change of age-standardised corpus uteri cancer mortality rates. Changes in corpus uteri cancer mortality rates by calendar period and standardised cohort mortality ratios were also estimated. Results In 2008, 12,903 women died from corpus uteri cancer in the EU. Corrected age-standardised corpus uteri cancer mortality rates have decreased significantly over the past decades in most member states, with exception of Malta and Bulgaria, where rates increased; Greece, where rates remained low but stable; and Sweden, where rates have been stable since 1970. Original member states showed a steeper decrease than newer member states. The standardised cohort mortality ratios indicated that corpus uteri cancer mortality does not decrease further, nor does it increase, among women born after 1940, although these birth cohorts may still be too young for corpus uteri cancer incidence to be fully evaluated. Conclusion Our corrected corpus uteri cancer mortality rates showed a decrease in most EU member states among women born before 1940.

Global trends of lung cancer mortality and smoking prevalence.

Lung cancer killed approximately 1,590,000 persons in 2012 and currently is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. There is large variation in mortality rates across the world in both males and females. This variation follows trend of smoking, as tobacco smoking is responsible for the majority of lung cancer cases. In this article, we present estimated worldwide lung cancer mortality rates in 2012 using the World Health Organization (WHO) GLOBOCAN 2012 and changes in the rates during recent decades in select countries using WHO Mortality Database. We also show smoking prevalence and trends globally and at the regional level. By region, the highest lung cancer mortality rates (per 100,000) in 2012 were in Central and Eastern Europe (47.6) and Eastern Asia (44.8) among males and in Northern America (23.5) and Northern Europe (19.1) among females; the lowest rates were in sub-Saharan Africa in both males (4.4) and females (2.2). The highest smoking prevalence among males is generally in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and Eastern Europe, and among females is in European countries, followed by Oceania and Northern and Southern America. Many countries, notably high-income countries, have seen a considerable decrease in smoking prevalence in both males and females, but in many other countries there has been little decrease or even an increase in smoking prevalence. Consequently, depending on whether or when smoking prevalence has started to decline, the lung cancer mortality trend is a mixture of decreasing, stable, or increasing. Despite major achievements in tobacco control, with current smoking patterns lung cancer will remain a major cause of death worldwide for several decades. The main priority to reduce the burden of lung cancer is to implement or enforce effective tobacco control policies in order to reduce smoking prevalence in all countries and prevent an increase in smoking in sub-Saharan Africa and women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Childhood cancer mortality in Japan, 1980-2013.

BackgroundThis study aimed to provide an updated analysis of childhood cancer mortality rates and long-term trends to 2013 to describe the current level of deaths and identify changes in recent decades.MethodsData on number of deaths from cancer in children aged under 15 years were derived from Vital Statistics in Japan and the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database for comparison countries. Trends in mortality were examined by fitting a joinpoint regression model.ResultsFor all cancers combined, the mortality rate during 2010–2013 was 19.9 per 1,000,000 population for boys and 17.5 for girls in Japan. Mortality from all cancers combined decreased significantly from 1980 to 2003 for boys and from 1980 to 2001 for girls. Afterwards, the rates remained stable for both sexes. Mortality from leukemia declined over the entire study period by 4.6 % per year (p <0.05) in boys and 4.3 % per year (p <0.05) in girls. For central nervous system (CNS) tumors, a slight increase in mortality was observed for both sexes, with a statistically significant annual percent change (APC) of 0.5 % (p <0.05) for boys and 0.6 % (p <0.05) for girls.ConclusionsWe provided updated information on recent trends of childhood cancer death. The establishment of a nationwide, childhood cancer registry is required in Japan. Moreover, trends in cancer mortality should be monitored continuously.

The forthcoming inexorable decline of cutaneous melanoma mortality in light-skinned populations

BackgroundReasons underlying time changes in cutaneous melanoma mortality in light-skinned populations are not well understood. An analysis of long-term time trends in melanoma mortality was carried out after regrouping countries in homogeneous regions. MethodsUsing the World Health Organisation (WHO) mortality database, age–period–cohort models were fitted for seven regions where the majority of population is light-skinned. Cohort effects are denoted as changes in rates occurring at different times in steadily older age groups. Period effects are denoted as changes in rates occurring simultaneously in several age groups. ResultsCohort effects better explained changes in melanoma mortality over time than period effects. Lifetime risk to die from melanoma increased in successive generations from 1875 until a peak year. Peak years were for subjects born in 1936–1940 in Oceania, 1937–1943 in North America, 1941–1942 in Northern Europe, 1945–1953 in the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland, 1948 in Western Europe and 1957 in Central Europe. After peak years, lifetime risk of melanoma death gradually decreased in successive generations and risks of subjects born in 1990–1995 were back to risk levels observed for subjects born before 1900–1905. In Southern Europe, birth years with highest lifetime risk of melanoma death have not yet been attained. As time passes, melanoma deaths will steadily rarefy in younger age groups and concentrate in older age groups, for ultimately fade away after 2040–2050. ConclusionIndependently from screening or treatment, over next decades, death from melanoma is likely to become an increasingly rare event. The temporary epidemic of fatal melanoma was most probably due to excessive UV-exposure of children that prevailed in 1900–1960, and mortality decreases would be due to progressive reductions in UV-exposure of children over the last decades.

Brief report: Sex differences in suicide rates and suicide methods among adolescents in South Korea, Japan, Finland, and the US

Sex differences in suicide rates and suicide methods was compared among adolescents in South Korea, Japan, Finland, and the United States. This study analyzed suicide rates and suicide methods of adolescents aged 15–19 years in four countries, using the World Health Organization mortality database. Among both male and female adolescents, the most common method of suicide was jumping from heights in South Korea and hanging in Japan. In Finland, jumping in front of moving objects and firearms were frequently used by males, but not by females. In the United States, males were more likely to use firearms, and females were more likely to use poison. The male to female ratio of suicide rates was higher in the United States (3.8) and Finland (3.6) than in Korea (1.3) and Japan (1.9). Sex differences in suicide methods may contribute to differences in the suicide rates among males and female adolescents in different countries.

The Japanese Decline in Secondary Sex Ratio Correlates with Percentage Change in GDP/Annum

Background : Male births occur in excess of female births. The ratio of male:female births is commonly referred to as M/F and is expected to approximate 0.515. Stress has been shown to decrease M/F due to an increased rate of male spontaneous abortions. Since Japan’s economy declined after the mid-1970s, this study was carried out in order to ascertain whether there was any relationship between M/F and annual change in percentage gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan. Methods: Annual male and female live births were obtained from a World Health Organisation Mortality database. GDP data was downloaded as an Excel sheet from the website of the World Bank. Data for both variables was available for the period 1961-2009. Results: This study analysed 71878631 total live births. There was an overall and abrupt decline in M/F which commenced in 1975 (0.5149, from 0.5155 in 1974), one year after the decline in percentage annual GDP growth which fell from 8.0% to -1.22 from 1973 to 1974. M/F correlated with percentage annual GDP growth (r=0.4, p=0.005). Conclusion: M/F is increasing overall in Asia, but decreasing in Japan, as is the trend in developing countries. This country exhibits a rise in GDP change along with M/F in boom years, followed by a progressive fall in both values, which occurs almost in parallel, especially after 1980. To the author’s knowledge, this is the first time that M/F has been linked with percentage annual GDP.

Conflicts in the Last Fifty Years and Subsequent Effects on the Male: Female Ratio at Birth

Introduction: Male births occur slightly in excess of female births. In man, the ratio of male divided by total live births (M/F) is expected to approximate 0.515. Warfare has been shown to exert significant effects on M/F. This study was carried out in order to identify any such effects on M/F in belligerent countries in recent conflicts. Methods: Births were obtained from a World Health Organisation Mortality database. Recent wars (post Second World War) were identified. Chi-square tests were used throughout. Male and female births in belligerent countries were compared to the aggregate of the previous and following years. Countries included were those with available data for periods spanning identified wars. Results: This study analysed 260747284 live births. M/F in the United States increased significantly during the Korean (p=0.011) and Vietnam (p=0.011) conflicts but decreased during the Gulf War (p=0.02) and there were no changes during the invasion of Iraq. There was no significant shift in M/F in Greece during the invasion of Cyprus, in England and Argentina in the Falkland war and in the Balkans during the Yugoslavian wars. The South Ossetia and Abkhazia Wars were associated in rises in M/F in the Southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) only after the wars, and then serially to the end of the 20 th century (probably due to sex-selective terminations of pregnancy in favour of male births). The Portuguese Colonial War lowered Portugal’s M/F during the last year of conflict (1974, p=0.0001). Original Research Article

Mortality from thoracic aortic diseases and associations with cardiovascular risk factors.

Temporal trends in mortality from thoracic aortic disease are unclear. This study examined trends in mortality from thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) and aortic dissection (AD) with the aim of identifying associations with trends in established cardiovascular risk factors. TAA and AD mortality (1994-2010) using International Classification of Diseases codes was extracted from the World Health Organization mortality database and age standardized. World Health Organization InfoBase and International Mortality and Smoking Statistics provided risk factor data. Eighteen World Health Organization member states were included (Europe=13, Australasia=2, North America=2, Asia=1). Ecological regression was performed of temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors (1946-2010) and independent correlations to mortality trends. TAA and AD mortality trends show substantial heterogeneity but are generally declining. TAA mortality has increased in Hungary, Romania, Japan, and Denmark, and AD mortality has increased in Romania and Japan; therefore, the mortality decline is not universal. A linear relationship exists between trends in systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, and body mass index and mortality from TAA. Body mass index demonstrated a negative linear association with female AD mortality, whereas trends in systolic blood pressure demonstrated a positive linear relationship with male AD mortality. Trends in smoking prevalence were not associated with TAA or AD mortality trends. This population-level ecological regression provides evidence that mortality secondary to TAA and mortality secondary to AD are both in decline. Differences between countries could be explained by population-level changes in common cardiovascular risk factors. Public health measures could further reduce mortality from TAA and AD.

Suicide rates in children aged 10-14 years worldwide: changes in the past two decades.

Limited research is focused on suicides in children aged below 15 years. To analyse worldwide suicide rates in children aged 10-14 years in two decades: 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. Suicide data for 81 countries or territories were retrieved from the World Health Organization Mortality Database, and population data from the World Bank data-set. In the past two decades the suicide rate per 100 000 in boys aged 10-14 years in 81 countries has shown a minor decline (from 1.61 to 1.52) whereas in girls it has shown a slight increase (from 0.85 to 0.94). Although the average rate has not changed significantly, rates have decreased in Europe and increased in South America. The suicide rates remain critical for boys in some former USSR republics. The changes may be related to economic recession and its impact on children from diverse cultural backgrounds, but may also be due to improvements in mortality registration in South America.

Trends in mortality from major cancers in the Americas: 1980-2010.

Between the 1970s and 2000 mortality in most of Latin America showed favorable trends for some common cancer sites, including stomach and male lung cancer. However, major concerns were related to mortality patterns from other cancers, particularly in women. We provide an up-to-date picture of patterns and trends in cancer mortality in Latin America. We analyzed data from the World Health Organization mortality database in 2005-2009 for 20 cancer sites in 11 Latin American countries and, for comparative purposes, in the USA and Canada. We computed age-standardized (world population) rates (per 100 000 person-year) and provided an overview of trends since 1980 using joinpoint regression models. Cancer mortality from some common cancers (including colorectum and lung) is still comparatively low in Latin America, and decreasing trends continue for other cancer sites (including stomach, uterus, male lung cancers) in several countries. However, there were upward trends for colorectal cancer mortality for both sexes, and for lung and breast cancer mortality in women from most countries. During the last decade, lung cancer mortality in women rose by 1%-3% per year in all Latin American countries except Mexico and Costa Rica, whereas rises of about 1% were registered for breast cancer in Brazil, Colombia and Venezuela. Moreover, high mortality from cancer of the cervix uteri was recorded in most countries, with rates over 13/100 000 women in Cuba and Venezuela. In men, upward trends were registered for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and Colombia, but also in Cuba, where the rate in 2005-2009 was more than twice that of the USA (23.6 versus 10/100 000). Tobacco control, efficient screening programs, early cancer detection and widespread access to treatments continue to be a major priority for cancer prevention in most Latin American countries.

High Proportion of Nervous System Disease among Major Cause of Under-Five Death in Korea; Compared with OECD 14 Nations (2005-2010)

&lt;title&gt;Abstract&lt;/title&gt;&lt;sec&gt;&lt;title&gt;Objectives&lt;/title&gt;&lt;p&gt;To compare the mortality rate of children under ages five from different countries by their causes and to explore the cause of death that is relatively higher in South Korea and came up with measures for resolution.&lt;/sec&gt;&lt;sec&gt;&lt;title&gt;Methods&lt;/title&gt;&lt;p&gt;The statistics were based from section ICD(International Classification of Diseases)-10 of WHO(World Health Organization) Mortality Database. Among the OECD(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, 15 countries with higher GDP(Gross Domestic Product) than South Korea were studied by the mortality rate from 2005 to 2010 sorted into two groups: 0 year group and 1-4 years group. Then the cause of death investigated in detail.&lt;/sec&gt;&lt;sec&gt;&lt;title&gt;Results&lt;/title&gt;&lt;p&gt;Among the 15 countries, average mortality of 0 year group in Korea ranked 8th and the average mortality of 1-4 years group ranked 4th out of 15. There were no significance in the mortality of 0 year group caused by any specific disease, but unnatural death was ranked 2nd after the United States. The natural death of 1-4 years group was ranked 6th, and the unnatural death was ranked 2nd after the Unites States. Among the natural deaths of 1-4 years group, the cause of death significantly higher was found to be disease G(nervous system disease). Among the subgroups of disease G, the orders went epilepsy, cerebral palsy, paralysis, and inflammatory disease.&lt;/sec&gt;&lt;sec&gt;&lt;title&gt;Conclusions&lt;/title&gt;&lt;p&gt;We have identified major causes of death of children under age 5. The highest proportion of cause of death in 1-4 years group was nervous system disease and we have proposed resolution. Henceforth, this data will be used as a foundational data for formulating policies relation to the Mother-Child Health.&lt;/sec&gt;

Trends in Sri Lankan cause-specific adult mortality 1950-2006.

BackgroundAlthough all-cause mortality in Sri Lanka decreased significantly from 1950 to 1970, subsequent declines have been more modest with divergent trends by age and sex. This study investigates these trends through cause of death analysis for 1950–2006 in adults aged 15–64 years.MethodsDeaths were obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO) mortality database for 1950 to 2003, and the Department of Census and Statistics Sri Lanka for 1992–95 and 2004–06 where WHO data was unavailable. Adult deaths were categorised by age (15–34 and 35–64 years) and sex into: infectious diseases; external-causes; circulatory diseases; cancers; digestive diseases; respiratory diseases; pregnancy-related; ill-defined; and other-causes. Cause-specific mortality rates were directly age-standardised to the 2001 Sri Lankan Census population.ResultsMortality declined in females aged 15–34 years by 85% over 1950–2006, predominantly due to sharp declines in infectious disease and pregnancy-related mortality over 1950–70. Among males aged 15–34 years the mortality decline was less at 47%, due to a rise in external-cause mortality during 1970–2000. In females aged 35–64 years mortality declined by 67% over 1950–2006, predominantly due to a sharp decline in infectious disease, ill-defined and other cause mortality over 1950–70. Among males aged 35–64 years, decline in mortality is evident to 1960 (19%) from decline in infectious disease mortality, followed by increased mortality from circulatory diseases and external cause mortality, despite continued decline in infectious disease mortality. All-cause mortality in males 35–64 years has stagnated since 1970, with fluctuating increases. Circulatory diseases were the leading cause of death among adults 35–64 years in 2002–06, with the male rate almost three times higher than females.ConclusionsSignificant disparities are demonstrated in Sri Lankan cause-specific adult mortality by sex and age group for 1950–2006. Female mortality progressively declined while male mortality demonstrated periods of increase and stagnation. Among males aged 15–34 years this coincides with periods of civil conflict over 1970–2000. Among males aged 35–64 years the increased mortality from non-communicable disease and external causes are the main reasons for stagnation in all-cause mortality since the 1970’s.

Trends in corpus uteri cancer mortality in member states of the European Union

ObjectivesThe burden of corpus uteri cancer varies in the European Union (EU). We analysed trends in corpus uteri cancer mortality in 26 EU member states from 1970 onward. MethodsPopulation numbers and number of uterine cancer deaths were extracted from the World Health Organisation mortality database. Corpus uteri cancer mortality rates were corrected for certification problems using different reallocation rules for deaths registered as uterine cancer not otherwise specified, or using mixed disease codes. Join point regression was used to study the annual percentage change of age-standardised corpus uteri cancer mortality rates. Changes in corpus uteri cancer mortality rates by calendar period and standardised cohort mortality ratios were also estimated. ResultsIn 2008, 12,903 women died from corpus uteri cancer in the EU. Corrected age-standardised corpus uteri cancer mortality rates have decreased significantly over the past decades in most member states, with exception of Malta and Bulgaria, where rates increased; Greece, where rates remained low but stable; and Sweden, where rates have been stable since 1970. Original member states showed a steeper decrease than newer member states. The standardised cohort mortality ratios indicated that corpus uteri cancer mortality does not decrease further, nor does it increase, among women born after 1940, although these birth cohorts may still be too young for corpus uteri cancer incidence to be fully evaluated. ConclusionOur corrected corpus uteri cancer mortality rates showed a decrease in most EU member states among women born before 1940.

Development of forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries

To develop the forecasting models for fatal road traffic injuries and to provide evidence for predicting the future trends on road traffic injuries. Data on the mortality of road traffic injury including factors as gender and age in different countries, were obtained from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Other information on GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education were collected from online resources of World Bank, WHO, the United Nations Population Division and other agencies. We fitted logarithmic models of road traffic injury mortality by gender and age group, including predictors of GDP per capita, urbanization, motorization and education. Sex- and age-specific forecasting models developed by WHO that including GDP per capita, education and time etc. were also fitted. Coefficient of determination(R(2)) was used to compare the performance between our modes and WHO models. 2 626 sets of data were collected from 153 countries/regions for both genders, between 1965 and 2010. The forecasting models of road traffic injury mortality based on GDP per capita, motorization, urbanization and education appeared to be statistically significant(P < 0.001), and the coefficients of determination for males at the age groups of 0-4, 5-14, 15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+ were 22.7% , 31.1%, 51.8%, 52.3%, 44.9%, 41.8%, 40.1%, 25.5%, respectively while the coefficients for these age groups in women were 22.9%, 32.6%, 51.1%, 49.3%, 41.3%, 35.9%, 30.7%, 20.1%, respectively. The WHO models that were based on the GDP per capita, education and time variables were statistically significant (P < 0.001)and the coefficients of determination were 14.9% , 22.0%, 31.5%, 33.1% , 30.7%, 28.5%, 27.7% and 17.8% for males, but 14.1%, 20.6%, 30.4%, 31.8%, 26.7%, 24.3%, 17.3% and 8.8% for females, respectively. The forecasting models that we developed seemed to be better than those developed by WHO.

Trends in gynecologic cancer mortality in East Asian regions

ObjectiveTo evaluate uterine and ovarian cancer mortality trends in East Asian countries.MethodsFor three Asian countries and one region (Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong), we extracted number of deaths for each year from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database, focusing on women ≥20 years old. The WHO population data were used to estimate person-years at risk for women. The annual age-standardized, truncated rates were evaluated for four age groups. We also compared age-specific mortality rates during three calendar periods (1979 to 1988, 1989 to 1998, and 1999 to 2010). Joinpoint regression was used to determine secular trends in mortality. To obtain cervical and uterine corpus cancer mortality rates in Korea, we re-allocated the cases with uterine cancer of unspecified subsite according to the proportion in the National Cancer Incidence Databases.ResultsOverall, uterine cancer mortality has decreased in each of the Asian regions. In Korea, corrected cervical cancer mortality has declined since 1993, at an annual percentage change (APC) of -4.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], -5.3 to -4.4). On the other hand, corrected uterine corpus cancer mortality has abruptly increased since 1995 (APC, 6.7; 95% CI, 5.4 to 8.0). Ovarian cancer mortality was stable, except in Korea, where mortality rates steadily increased at an APC of 6.2% (95% CI, 3.4 to 9.0) during 1995 to 2000, and subsequently stabilized.ConclusionAlthough uterine cancer mortality rates are declining in East Asia, additional effort is warranted to reduce the burden of gynecologic cancer in the future, through the implementation of early detection programs and the use of optimal therapeutic strategies.