Double-sided lapping is currently the mainstream manufacturing method for obtaining plane-parallel optical workpieces with high surface shape accuracy, and the fixed abrasive lapping pad is the main machining tool. However, the effect of pad surface morphology on the workpiece surface shape has rarely been studied, and its formation mechanism has not yet been revealed. In this paper, based on probabilistic statistics and contact mechanics, an analytical model that takes into account the pad surface morphology for predicting the workpiece surface shape evolution is developed. Notably, this model considers the cross-scale relationship between the formation of lapped surface shape and the scratching process of a single abrasive grain in material removal for the first time. Furthermore, the real-time dynamical contact relationship between the workpieces and the measured actual pad surface morphology is also considered. The surface shape and peak-to-valley value of the workpiece under different parameters were simulated and analyzed, and the influence mechanism of the local profile and macro shape of the lapping pad on the lapped workpiece surface shape are clarified. Moreover, the double-sided lapping trial experiments were performed to validate the theoretical model, and the experimental results demonstrated good agreement with the simulation results. The maximum error of the surface shape evolution prediction model is less than 14.6 %. This result verifies the correctness and validity of the established model. This work not only provides new ideas for controlling the workpiece surface but also forms the theoretical basis for understanding the double-sided lapping process.