Winter Stratosphere Research Articles

Redistribution of total reactive nitrogen in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere during the cold winter 2015/2016

Abstract. During winter 2015/2016, the Arctic stratosphere was characterized by extraordinarily low temperatures in connection with a very strong polar vortex and with the occurrence of extensive polar stratospheric clouds. From mid-December 2015 until mid-March 2016, the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft) was deployed to probe the lowermost stratosphere in the Arctic region within the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) mission. More than 20 flights have been conducted out of Kiruna, Sweden, and Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, covering the whole winter period. Besides total reactive nitrogen (NOy), observations of nitrous oxide, nitric acid, ozone, and water were used for this study. Total reactive nitrogen and its partitioning between the gas and particle phases are key parameters for understanding processes controlling the ozone budget in the polar winter stratosphere. The vertical redistribution of total reactive nitrogen was evaluated by using tracer–tracer correlations (NOy–N2O and NOy–O3). The trace gases are well correlated as long as the NOy distribution is controlled by its gas-phase production from N2O. Deviations of the observed NOy from this correlation indicate the influence of heterogeneous processes. In early winter no such deviations have been observed. In January, however, air masses with extensive nitrification were encountered at altitudes between 12 and 15 km. The excess NOy amounted to about 6 ppb. During several flights, along with gas-phase nitrification, indications for extensive occurrence of nitric acid containing particles at flight altitude were found. These observations support the assumption of sedimentation and subsequent evaporation of nitric acid-containing particles, leading to redistribution of total reactive nitrogen at lower altitudes. Remnants of nitrified air masses have been observed until mid-March. Between the end of February and mid-March, denitrified air masses have also been observed in connection with high potential temperatures. This indicates the downward transport of air masses that have been denitrified during the earlier winter phase. Using tracer–tracer correlations, missing total reactive nitrogen was estimated to amount to 6 ppb. Further, indications of transport and mixing of these processed air masses outside the vortex have been found, contributing to the chemical budget of the winter lowermost stratosphere. Observations within POLSTRACC, at the bottom of the vortex, reflect heterogeneous processes from the overlying Arctic winter stratosphere. The comparison of the observations with CLaMS model simulations confirm and complete the picture arising from the present measurements. The simulations confirm that the ensemble of all observations is representative of the vortex-wide vertical NOy redistribution.

Distinct North American Cooling Signatures Following the Zonally Symmetric and Asymmetric Modes of Winter Stratospheric Variability

AbstractThis paper compares surface signatures of the zonally symmetric and asymmetric modes of stratospheric variability, which describe the strength of the polar vortex and a planetary wave‐1 pattern, respectively. Unlike a weak polar vortex followed by negative Arctic Oscillation–like anomalies, strong stratospheric wave activity features a polar vortex displacement with a deep planetary wave‐1 structure, resulting in positive North Atlantic Oscillation–like North American cooling in about 10 days. Moreover, the linkage between the stratosphere and surface is examined in two reanalyzes and four models of different configurations, which show more robust North American cooling following the displacement of the polar vortex due to strong stratospheric wave activity than the zonally symmetric weakening of the polar vortex. This suggests strong stratospheric wave activity acts as a better predictor for cold spells in the northern U.S. and Canada compared with a weak polar vortex.

Planetary Waves Controlling the Effect of Energetic Electron Precipitation on the Northern Polar Vortex

AbstractEnergetic electron precipitation (EEP) forms ozone‐depleting nitrogen and hydrogen oxides in the high‐latitude middle and upper atmosphere, leading to ozone destruction and temperature enhancement that can strengthen the winter polar vortex. This EEP effect on polar vortex depends on quasi‐biennial oscillation and sudden stratospheric warmings, which earlier studies relate to planetary waves. We study here the possible modulation of the EEP effect by planetary waves. We perform a principal component analysis of the vertical component of Eliassen‐Palm flux (EP flux) to examine the latitudinal pattern of planetary waves. We use a multilinear regression analysis to estimate the responses of zonal wind and EP flux divergence to EEP in the northern winter stratosphere by keeping the two leading principal components of vertical EP flux as controlling factors. We find that the EEP strengthens the polar vortex most systematically when planetary wave propagation is enhanced at mid‐latitudes but reduced at polar latitudes.

Dynamical Impacts of Stratospheric QBO on the Global Circulation up to the Lower Thermosphere

AbstractTo estimate reaction of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere to changes in phases of equatorial stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO), the three‐dimensional nonlinear middle and upper atmosphere model (MUAM) is used. This model allows continuous simulations of atmospheric wave propagation from the ground to the thermosphere (300 km and above). The main atmospheric hydrodynamic fields (wind and temperature), components of residual meridional circulation (RMC), and fluxes of mass are calculated based on ensembles containing 16 pairs of model runs for initial conditions corresponding to easterly and westerly QBO phases. To minimize uncertainties in determination of the QBO phases, an approach based on the usage of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is applied. Statistically significant results are obtained illustrating how changes in the planetary waves (PWs) structures promote the spread of QBO effects to polar latitudes and to the thermosphere, through changes in the Eliassen‐Palm (EP) flux and its divergence, or through the formation of an eddy meridional circulation. The main contribution to the cooling of the polar winter stratosphere during the westerly QBO is made by the weakening of wave activity, in particular, the weakening of the vertical EP flux, which leads to a weakening of the poleward heat flux. The sensitivity of the wave‐induced eddy circulation to changes in the QBO phase is higher than that of the RMC, demonstrating that PWs propagating from the lower troposphere are the most important mechanism for the transfer of global circulation disturbances from the equatorial QBO region to polar latitudes.

OClO as observed by TROPOMI: a comparison with meteorological parameters and polar stratospheric cloud observations

Abstract. Chlorine dioxide (OClO) is a by-product of the ozone-depleting halogen chemistry in the stratosphere. Although it is rapidly photolysed at low solar zenith angles (SZAs), it plays an important role as an indicator of the chlorine activation in polar regions during polar winter and spring at twilight conditions because of the nearly linear dependence of its formation on chlorine oxide (ClO). Here, we compare slant column densities (SCDs) of chlorine dioxide (OClO) retrieved by means of differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) from spectra measured by the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with meteorological data for both Antarctic and Arctic regions for the first three winters in each of the hemispheres (November 2017–October 2020). TROPOMI, a UV–Vis–NIR–SWIR instrument on board of the Sentinel-5P satellite, monitors the Earth's atmosphere in a near-polar orbit at an unprecedented spatial resolution and signal-to-noise ratio and provides daily global coverage at the Equator and thus even more frequent observations at polar regions. The observed OClO SCDs are generally well correlated with the meteorological conditions in the polar winter stratosphere; for example, the chlorine activation signal appears as a sharp gradient in the time series of the OClO SCDs once the temperature drops to values well below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature (TNAT). Also a relation of enhanced OClO values at lee sides of mountains can be observed at the beginning of the winters, indicating a possible effect of lee waves on chlorine activation. The dataset is also compared with CALIPSO Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) observations. In general, OClO SCDs coincide well with CALIOP measurements for which PSCs are detected. Very high OClO levels are observed for the northern hemispheric winter 2019/20, with an extraordinarily long period with a stable polar vortex being even close to the values found for southern hemispheric winters. An extraordinary winter in the Southern Hemisphere was also observed in 2019, with a minor sudden stratospheric warming at the beginning of September. In this winter, similar OClO values were measured in comparison to the previous (usual) winter till that event but with a OClO deactivation that was 1–2 weeks earlier.

Inter‐Hemispheric Coupling During Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events With Elevated Stratopause

AbstractSudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) are large‐scale disruptions of the wintertime state of the stratosphere that can affect the circulation at synoptic and global scales, including altitudes up to the mesopause in both winter and summer hemispheres. In this study, the response of the summer mesosphere is analyzed during the SSW in the winter stratosphere. In particular, we focus on major SSW events where the climatological stratopause disappears and subsequently reforms at higher altitude, which we refer to as “extreme SSW” in this article. The summer mesosphere response to such extreme SSW events is analyzed in three different phases: (a) stratosphere warming phase, (b) stratopause discontinuity phase, and (c) stratopause reformation phase. Composites of anomalies with respect to climatology derived from the Microwave Limb Sounder and the extended version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with specified dynamics are analyzed. The polar summer mesosphere cools during the stratospheric warming phase and warms in subsequent phases. A detailed lag‐correlation analysis shows strong negative correlation of −0.6 to −0.8 between the summer mesosphere and the winter stratosphere during the stratosphere warming phase, and a positive correlation of 0.4–0.6 in the phases thereafter. An attempt is made to explain the apparent drivers and dynamics responsible for these couplings, supported with evidence from observations and model output.

ГЕОДЕЗІЯ, КАРТОГРАФІЯ І АЕРОФОТОЗНІМАННЯ

The aim of this work is to evaluate the accuracy of determining the wet component of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) from GNSS-measurements and the accuracy of determining the hydrostatic component according to the Saastamoinen model in comparison with the radio sounding data as well. Zenith tropospheric delay is determined mainly by two methods - traditional, using radio sounding or using atmospheric models, such as the Saastamoinen model, and the method of GNSS measurements. Determination of the hydrostatic component of the zenith tropospheric delay was performed by radio sounding data obtained at the aerological station Praha-Libus in 2011-2013 and in 2018. Data were processed for the middle decades of January and July of each year at 0h o’clock of the Universal Time. The wet component was calculated from GNSS observations. By a significant number of radio soundings at the Praha-Libus aerological station, hydrostatic and wet components of zenith tropospheric delay (ZTD) and the same number of ZTD values derived for the corresponding time intervals from GNSS measurements at the GOPE reference station were determined. The values of the wet component of ZTD were determined and compared with the corresponding data obtained from radio soundings. We found that the error of the hydrostatic component in winter does not exceed 10 mm in absolute value, and in summer it is approximately 1.5 times smaller. This is due to differences in the stratification of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in winter and summer. As for the wet component of ZTD, its errors do not exceed: in winter 15 mm, in summer – 35 mm. The resulting differences in summer have a negative sign, indicating a systematic shift, and in winter – both negative and positive. Today, there are many studies aimed at improving the accuracy of determining zenith tropospheric delay by both Ukrainian and foreign authors, but the problem of the accuracy of the hydrostatic component remains open. The study provides recommendations for further research to improve the accuracy of zenith tropospheric delay.

Comparison of inorganic chlorine in the Antarctic and Arctic lowermost stratosphere by separate late winter aircraft measurements

Abstract. Stratospheric inorganic chlorine (Cly) is predominantly released from long-lived chlorinated source gases and, to a small extent, very short-lived chlorinated substances. Cly includes the reservoir species (HCl and ClONO2) and active chlorine species (i.e., ClOx). The active chlorine species drive catalytic cycles that deplete ozone in the polar winter stratosphere. This work presents calculations of inorganic chlorine (Cly) derived from chlorinated source gas measurements on board the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during the Southern Hemisphere Transport, Dynamic and Chemistry (SouthTRAC) campaign in austral late winter and early spring 2019. Results are compared to Cly in the Northern Hemisphere derived from measurements of the POLSTRACC-GW-LCYCLE-SALSA (PGS) campaign in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016. A scaled correlation was used for PGS data, since not all source gases were measured. Using the SouthTRAC data, Cly from a scaled correlation was compared to directly determined Cly and agreed well. An air mass classification based on in situ N2O measurements allocates the measurements to the vortex, the vortex boundary region, and midlatitudes. Although the Antarctic vortex was weakened in 2019 compared to previous years, Cly reached 1687±19 ppt at 385 K; therefore, up to around 50 % of total chlorine was found in inorganic form inside the Antarctic vortex, whereas only 15 % of total chlorine was found in inorganic form in the southern midlatitudes. In contrast, only 40 % of total chlorine was found in inorganic form in the Arctic vortex during PGS, and roughly 20 % was found in inorganic form in the northern midlatitudes. Differences inside the two vortices reach as much as 540 ppt, with more Cly in the Antarctic vortex in 2019 than in the Arctic vortex in 2016 (at comparable distance to the local tropopause). To our knowledge, this is the first comparison of inorganic chlorine within the Antarctic and Arctic polar vortices. Based on the results of these two campaigns, the differences in Cly inside the two vortices are substantial and larger than the inter-annual variations previously reported for the Antarctic.

The unexpected smoke layer in the High Arctic winter stratosphere during MOSAiC 2019–2020

Abstract. During the 1-year MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition, the German icebreaker Polarstern drifted through Arctic Ocean ice from October 2019 to May 2020, mainly at latitudes between 85 and 88.5∘ N. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar was operated on board the research vessel and continuously monitored aerosol and cloud layers up to a height of 30 km. During our mission, we expected to observe a thin residual volcanic aerosol layer in the stratosphere, originating from the Raikoke volcanic eruption in June 2019, with an aerosol optical thickness (AOT) of 0.005–0.01 at 500 nm over the North Pole area during the winter season. However, the highlight of our measurements was the detection of a persistent, 10 km deep aerosol layer in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), from about 7–8 to 17–18 km height, with clear and unambiguous wildfire smoke signatures up to 12 km and an order of magnitude higher AOT of around 0.1 in the autumn of 2019. Case studies are presented to explain the specific optical fingerprints of aged wildfire smoke in detail. The pronounced aerosol layer was present throughout the winter half-year until the strong polar vortex began to collapse in late April 2020. We hypothesize that the detected smoke originated from extraordinarily intense and long-lasting wildfires in central and eastern Siberia in July and August 2019 and may have reached the tropopause layer by the self-lifting process. In this article, we summarize the main findings of our 7-month smoke observations and characterize the aerosol in terms of geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties. The UTLS AOT at 532 nm ranged from 0.05–0.12 in October–November 2019 and 0.03–0.06 during the main winter season. The Raikoke aerosol fraction was estimated to always be lower than 15 %. We assume that the volcanic aerosol was above the smoke layer (above 13 km height). As an unambiguous sign of the dominance of smoke in the main aerosol layer from 7–13 km height, the particle extinction-to-backscatter ratio (lidar ratio) at 355 nm was found to be much lower than at 532 nm, with mean values of 55 and 85 sr, respectively. The 355–532 nm Ångström exponent of around 0.65 also clearly indicated the presence of smoke aerosol. For the first time, we show a distinct view of the aerosol layering features in the High Arctic from the surface up to 30 km height during the winter half-year. Finally, we provide a vertically resolved view on the late winter and early spring conditions regarding ozone depletion, smoke occurrence, and polar stratospheric cloud formation. The latter will largely stimulate research on a potential impact of the unexpected stratospheric aerosol perturbation on the record-breaking ozone depletion in the Arctic in spring 2020.

Investigation and amelioration of long-term instrumental drifts in water vapor and nitrous oxide measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and their implications for studies of variability and trends

Abstract. The Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), launched on NASA's Aura spacecraft in 2004, measures vertical profiles of the abundances of key atmospheric species from the upper troposphere to the mesosphere with daily near-global coverage. We review the first 15 years of the record of H2O and N2O measurements from the MLS 190 GHz subsystem (along with other 190 GHz information), with a focus on their long-term stability, largely based on comparisons with measurements from other sensors. These comparisons generally show signs of an increasing drift in the MLS “version 4” (v4) H2O record starting around 2010. Specifically, comparisons with v4.1 measurements from the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) indicate a ∼ 2 %–3 % per decade drift over much of the stratosphere, increasing to as much as ∼ 7 % per decade around 46 hPa. Larger drifts, of around 7 %–11 % per decade, are seen in comparisons to balloon-borne frost point hygrometer measurements in the lower stratosphere. Microphysical calculations considering the formation of polar stratospheric clouds in the Antarctic winter stratosphere corroborate a drift in MLS v4 water vapor measurements in that region and season. In contrast, comparisons with the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on NASA's Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) mission, and with ground-based Water Vapor Millimeter-wave Spectrometer (WVMS) instruments, do not show statistically significant drifts. However, the uncertainty in these comparisons is large enough to encompass most of the drifts identified in other comparisons. In parallel, the MLS v4 N2O product is shown to be generally decreasing over the same period (when an increase in stratospheric N2O is expected, reflecting a secular growth in emissions), with a more pronounced drift in the lower stratosphere than that found for H2O. Comparisons to ACE-FTS and to MLS N2O observations in a different spectral region, with the latter available from 2004 to 2013, indicate an altitude-dependent drift, growing from 5 % per decade or less in the mid-stratosphere to as much as 15 % per decade in the lower stratosphere. Detailed investigations of the behavior of the MLS 190 GHz subsystem reveal a drift in its “sideband fraction” (the relative sensitivity of the 190 GHz receiver to the two different parts of the microwave spectrum that it observes). Our studies indicate that sideband fraction drift accounts for much of the observed changes in the MLS H2O product and some portion of the changes seen in N2O. The 190 GHz sideband fraction drift has been corrected in the new “version 5” (v5) MLS algorithms, which have now been used to reprocess the entire MLS record. As a result of this correction, the MLS v5 H2O record shows no statistically significant drifts compared to ACE-FTS. However, statistically significant drifts remain between MLS v5 and frost point measurements, although they are reduced. Drifts in v5 N2O are about half the size of those in v4 but remain statistically significant. Scientists are advised to use MLS v5 data in all future studies. Quantification of interregional and seasonal to annual changes in MLS H2O and N2O will not be affected by the drift. However, caution is advised in studies using the MLS record to examine long-term (multiyear) variability and trends in either of these species, especially N2O; such studies should only be undertaken in consultation with the MLS team. Importantly, this drift does not affect any of the MLS observations made in other spectral regions such as O3, HCl, CO, ClO, or temperature.

Chemical Evolution of the Exceptional Arctic Stratospheric Winter 2019/2020 Compared to Previous Arctic and Antarctic Winters

AbstractThe winter 2019/2020 showed the lowest ozone mixing ratios ever observed in the Arctic winter stratosphere. It was the coldest Arctic stratospheric winter on record and was characterized by an unusually strong and long‐lasting polar vortex. We study the chemical evolution and ozone depletion in the winter 2019/2020 using the global Chemistry and Transport Model ATLAS. We examine whether the chemical processes in 2019/2020 are more characteristic of typical conditions in Antarctic winters or in average Arctic winters. Model runs for the winter 2019/2020 are compared to simulations of the Arctic winters 2004/2005, 2009/2010, and 2010/2011 and of the Antarctic winters 2006 and 2011, to assess differences in chemical evolution in winters with different meteorological conditions. In some respects, the winter 2019/2020 (and also the winter 2010/2011) was a hybrid between Arctic and Antarctic conditions, for example, with respect to the fraction of chlorine deactivation into HCl versus ClONO2, the amount of denitrification, and the importance of the heterogeneous HOCl + HCl reaction for chlorine activation. The pronounced ozone minimum of less than 0.2 ppm at about 450 K potential temperature that was observed in about 20% of the polar vortex area in 2019/2020 was caused by exceptionally long periods in the history of these air masses with low temperatures in sunlight. Based on a simple extrapolation of observed loss rates, only an additional 21–46 h spent below the upper temperature limit for polar stratospheric cloud formation and in sunlight would have been necessary to reduce ozone to near zero values (0.05 ppm) in these parts of the vortex.

A Synoptic View of the Onset of the Mid-Latitude QBO Signal

AbstractThe extratropical effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), known as the Holton-Tan effect, is manifest as aweaker, warmer winter Arctic polar vortex during the east QBO phase. While previous studies have shown that the extratropical QBO signal is caused by the modified propagation of planetary waves in the stratosphere, the mechanism dominating the onset and seasonal development of the Holton-Tan effects remains unclear. Here, the governing wave-mean flow dynamics of the early winter extratropical QBO signal onset and its reversibility is investigated on a synoptic timescale with a finite-amplitude diagnostic using reanalysis and a chemistry-climate model. The extratropical QBO signal onset in October is found to primarily result from modulated stratospheric life-cycles of wave pulses entering the stratosphere from the troposphere, rather than from a modulation of their tropospheric wave source. A comprehensive analysis of the wave activity budget during fall, when the stratospheric winter polar vortex starts forming and waves start propagating up into the stratosphere, shows significant differences. During the east QBO phase, the deceleration of the mid-high latitude stratospheric zonal mean jet by the upward propagating wave pulses is less reversible, due to stronger dissipation processes, while during the west phase, a more reversible deceleration of the main polar vortex is found owing to the waves being dissipated at lower latitudes, accompanied by a weak but different response of the tropospheric subtropical jet. From this synoptic wave-event viewpoint, the early season onset of the Holton-Tan effect results from the cumulative effect of the QBO dependent wave-induced deceleration during the life cycle of individual upward wave pulses.

The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts

AbstractThis study offers an overview of the low-frequency (i.e., monthly to seasonal) evolution, dynamics, predictability, and surface impacts of a rare Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric warming that occurred in austral spring 2019. Between late August and mid-September 2019, the stratospheric circumpolar westerly jet weakened rapidly, and Antarctic stratospheric temperatures rose dramatically. The deceleration of the vortex at 10 hPa was as drastic as that of the first-ever-observed major sudden stratospheric warming in the SH during 2002, while the mean Antarctic warming over the course of spring 2019 broke the previous record of 2002 by ∼50% in the midstratosphere. This event was preceded by a poleward shift of the SH polar night jet in the uppermost stratosphere in early winter, which was then followed by record-strong planetary wave-1 activity propagating upward from the troposphere in August that acted to dramatically weaken the polar vortex throughout the depth of the stratosphere. The weakened vortex winds and elevated temperatures moved downward to the surface from mid-October to December, promoting a record strong swing of the southern annular mode (SAM) to its negative phase. This record-negative SAM appeared to be a primary driver of the extreme hot and dry conditions over subtropical eastern Australia that accompanied the severe wildfires that occurred in late spring 2019. State-of-the-art dynamical seasonal forecast systems skillfully predicted the significant vortex weakening of spring 2019 and subsequent development of negative SAM from as early as late July.

Seasonal prediction of the boreal winter stratosphere

The predictability of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere and its underlying dynamics are investigated in five state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model database. Special attention is devoted to the connection between the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and lower-stratosphere wave activity (LSWA). We find that in winter (December to February) dynamical forecasts initialised on the first of November are considerably more skilful than empirical forecasts based on October anomalies. Moreover, the coupling of the SPV with mid-latitude LSWA (i.e., meridional eddy heat flux) is generally well reproduced by the forecast systems, allowing for the identification of a robust link between the predictability of wave activity above the tropopause and the SPV skill. Our results highlight the importance of November-to-February LSWA, in particular in the Eurasian sector, for forecasts of the winter stratosphere. Finally, the role of potential sources of seasonal stratospheric predictability is considered: we find that the C3S multi-model overestimates the stratospheric response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and underestimates the influence of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO).

Transient Extratropical Response to Solar Ultraviolet Radiation in the Northern Hemisphere Winter

AbstractAn intermediate complexity general circulation model is used to investigate the transient response of the NH winter stratosphere to modulated ultraviolet (UV) radiation by imposing a stepwise, deliberately exaggerated UV perturbation and analyzing the lagged response. Enhanced UV radiation is accompanied by an immediate warming of the tropical upper stratosphere. The warming then spreads into the winter subtropics due to an accelerated Brewer–Dobson circulation in the tropical upper stratosphere. The poleward meridional velocity in the subtropics leads to an increase in zonal wind in midlatitudes between 20° and 50°N due to Coriolis torque. The increase in midlatitude zonal wind is accompanied by a dipole in Eliassen–Palm flux convergence, with decreased convergence near the winter pole and increased convergence in midlatitudes (where winds are strengthening due to the Coriolis torque); this dipole subsequently extends the anomalous westerlies to subpolar latitudes within the first 10 days. The initial radiatively driven acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation due to enhanced shortwave absorption is replaced in the subpolar winter stratosphere by a wave-driven deceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, and after a month the wave-driven deceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation encompasses most of the winter stratosphere. Approximately a month after UV is first modified, a significant poleward jet shift is evident in the troposphere. The results of this study may have implications for the observed stratospheric and tropospheric responses to solar variability associated with the 27-day solar rotation period, and also to solar variability on longer time scales.

The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme

AbstractUsing reanalysis and real‐time forecasts from 11 sub‐seasonal to seasonal (S2S) models, the strong stratospheric polar vortex in March 2020 coupled with Arctic ozone loss and their predictability are reported in this study. Arctic ozone reached a minimum value in March 2020 similar to the events in 1997 and 2011. Upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere in winter–early spring was anomalously weak, and the weakened Brewer‐Dobson circulation transported less ozone‐rich air to the Arctic stratosphere in November 2019–March 2020, which contributes around 40% of the total Arctic ozone loss in March, with the residual mainly explained by the chemical loss. Anomalous upwelling in the Arctic further cooled and intensified the polar vortex for ozone depletion and weak mixing, preventing recovery of ozone in early spring 2020. The polar vortex intensity and Arctic total ozone are strongly coupled, so a prediction of Arctic total ozone becomes possible for S2S models using metrics of the polar vortex as a proxy. The prediction of the strong stratospheric polar vortex in late March 2020 is assessed for four common initializations (February 27, March 5, March 12, and March 19) for S2S models. Displacement of the polar vortex toward the Western Hemisphere can only be forecasted in the two later initializations, and its intensity anomaly is underestimated in nearly all of those forecasts. Therefore, the empirical model using the S2S outputs also underestimates the Arctic total ozone. Despite this underestimation, this extremely strong polar vortex event led to improved surface predictability on subseasonal timescales: near‐surface temperature and precipitation are well forecasted 2–3 weeks in advance.

The Role of Inertial Instability in Cross-Hemispheric Coupling

AbstractRecent studies suggest linkages between anomalously warm temperatures in the winter stratosphere, and the high-latitude summer mesopause. The summer temperature anomaly is manifested in the decline of polar mesospheric clouds. The 2-day wave is a strong-amplitude and transient summer feature that interacts with the background state so as to warm the high-latitude summer mesopause. This wave has been linked to a low-latitude phenomenon called inertial instability, which is organized by breaking planetary waves in the winter stratosphere. Hence, inertial instability has been identified as a possible nexus between the disturbed winter stratosphere, and summer mesopause warming. We investigate a sustained occurrence of inertial instability during 19 July–8 August 2014. During this period, stratospheric winter temperatures warmed by about 10 K, while a steep decline in polar mesospheric clouds was reported between 26 July and 6 August. We present, for the first time, wave driving associated with observed inertial instability. The effect of inertial instability is to export eastward momentum from the winter hemisphere across the equator into the summer hemisphere. Using a primitive equation model, we demonstrate that the wave stresses destabilize the stratopause summer easterly jet. The reconfigured wind profile excites the wavenumber-4 component of the 2-day wave, leading to enhanced warming of the summer mesopause. This work supports previous numerical investigations that identified planetary wave–driven inertial instability as a source of the 2-day wave.

The Influence of Obliquely Propagating Monsoon Gravity Waves in the Southern Polar Summer Mesosphere After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in the Winter Stratosphere

AbstractOblique propagation of gravity waves (GWs) refers to the latitudinal propagation (or vertical propagation away from their source) from the low‐latitude troposphere to the polar mesosphere. This propagation is not included in current gravity wave parameterization schemes, but may be an important component of the global dynamical structure. Previous studies have revealed a high correlation between observations of GW pseudomomentum flux (GWMF) from monsoon convection and Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMCs) in the northern hemisphere. In this work, we report on data and model analysis of the effects of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in the northern hemisphere, on the oblique propagation of GWs from the southern hemisphere tropics, which in turn influence PMCs in the southern summer mesosphere. In response to SSWs, the propagation of GWs at the midlatitude winter hemisphere is enhanced. This enhancement appears to be slanted toward the equator with increasing altitude and follows the stratospheric eastward jet. The oblique propagation of GWs from the southern monsoon regions tends to start at higher altitudes with a sharper poleward slanted structure toward the summer mesosphere. The correlation between PMCs in the summer southern hemisphere and the zonal GWMF from 50°N to 50°S exhibits a pattern of high‐correlation coefficients that connects the winter stratosphere with the summer mesosphere, indicating the influence of Interhemispheric Coupling mechanism. Temperature and wind anomalies suggest that the dynamics in the winter hemisphere can influence the equatorial region, which in turn, can influence the oblique propagation of monsoon GWs.

Improved Circulation in the Northern Hemisphere by Adjusting Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations in Seasonal Experiments With ICON‐NWP

AbstractThe stratosphere is one of the main potential sources for subseasonal to seasonal predictability in midlatitudes in winter. The ability of an atmospheric model to realistically simulate the stratospheric dynamics is essential in order to move forward in the field of seasonal predictions in midlatitudes. Earlier studies with the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic atmospheric model (ICON) point out that stratospheric westerlies in ICON are underestimated. This is the first extensive study on the evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation with ICON in numerical weather prediction (NWP) mode. Seasonal experiments with the default setup are able to reproduce the basic climatology of the stratospheric polar vortex. However, westerlies are too weak and major stratospheric warmings too frequent in ICON. Both a reduction of the nonorographic, and a reduction of the orographic gravity wave and wake drag lead to a strengthening of the stratospheric vortex and a bias reduction, in particular in January. However, the effect of the nonorographic gravity wave drag scheme on the stratosphere is stronger. Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling is intensified and more realistic due to a reduced gravity wave drag. Furthermore, an adjustment of the subgrid‐scale orographic drag parameterization leads to a significant error reduction in the mean sea level pressure. As a result of these findings, we present our current suggested improved setup for seasonal experiments with ICON‐NWP.

Nonlinear Response of Atmospheric Blocking to Early Winter Barents–Kara Seas Warming: An Idealized Model Study

AbstractWintertime Ural blocking (UB) has been shown to play an important role in cold extremes over Eurasia, and thus it is useful to investigate the impact of warming over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) on the behavior of Ural blocking. Here the response of UB to stepwise tropospheric warming over the BKS is examined using a dry dynamic core model. Nonlinear responses are found in the frequency and local persistence of UB. The frequency and local persistence of the UB increase with the strength of BKS warming in a less strong range and decrease with the further increase of BKS warming, which is linked to the UB propagation influenced by upstream background atmospheric circulation. For a weak BKS warming, the UB becomes more persistent due to its less westward movement associated with intensified upstream zonal wind and meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes, which corresponds to a negative height response over the North Atlantic high latitudes. When BKS warming is strong, a positive height response appears in the early winter stratosphere, and its subsequent downward propagation leads to a negative NAO response or increased Greenland blocking events, which reduces zonal wind and PVy in the high latitudes from North Atlantic to Europe, thus enhancing the westward propagation of UB and reducing its local persistence. The transition to the negative NAO phase and the retrogression of UB are not found when numerically suppressing the downward influence of weakened stratospheric polar vortex, suggesting a crucial role of the stratospheric pathway in nonlinear responses of UB to the early winter BKS warming.