Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

Carry-Over Effects of Climate Variability at Breeding and Non-Breeding Grounds on Spring Migration in the European Wren Troglodytes troglodytes at the Baltic Coast.

Many studies have linked changes in avian phenology in Europe to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which serves as a proxy for conditions in western Europe. However, the effects of climate variation in other regions of Europe on the phenology of short-distance migrants with large non-breeding grounds remain unclear. We determined the combined influence of large-scale climate indices, NAO, the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), and the Scandinavian Pattern (SCAND), during the preceding year on spring migration timing of European wren at the southern Baltic coast during 1982-2021. We modelled the effects of these climate variables on the entire passage and subsequent percentiles of the wren's passage at Bukowo-Kopań and Hel ringing stations. Over 1982-2021, the start and median of migration shifted earlier at Hel, but the end of passage shifted later at both stations. In effect, the duration of passage at Hel was extended by 7.6 days. Early passage at Hel was related with high MOI in spring and the preceding autumn. Spring passage at Bukowo-Kopań was delayed after high NAO in the previous breeding season, and high winter and spring NAO. Late spring passage occurred at both stations following a high SCAND in the previous summer. At both locations, an early start or median of passage followed high local temperatures. We conclude that phenology of the wren's spring migration at the Baltic coast was shaped by conditions encountered at wintering quarters in western Europe, where NAO operates, and in the south-eastern Europe, where the MOI operates, in conjunction with conditions in Scandinavia during the previous breeding season. We demonstrated that climate variability in various parts of the migrants' range has combined carry-over effects on in migrants' phenology in Europe.

Unevenness of temporal distribution of precipitation over the Yangtze River basin and its main influencing factors

AbstractUnderstanding the unevenness of precipitation distribution within a year is important for water resources management and agricultural production. In this study, spatiotemporal variations of precipitation unevenness in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) during 1961–2020 and its main influencing factors are investigated by the relative entropy (RE) and rotated empirical orthogonal function. The timings of different percentiles of annual total precipitation show that the temporal distribution of precipitation in the YRB is uneven. The unevenness of precipitation distribution exhibits a large spatial variability with a high‐value centre in the northeast and a low value centre in the northwest of the YRB, and an upward trend in almost the entire YRB. Precipitation becomes more uneven with the decrease of annual number of wet days and low‐intensity precipitation amount and the increase of high‐intensity precipitation amount during the study period. Precipitation unevenness of different regions is modulated by the different combinations of different seasonal climate indices with specific time lags. For example, in the south‐central YRB, precipitation unevenness generally tends to be enhanced by the positive Tropical Northern Atlantic Index in current summer and sea surface temperature anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) in previous summer, and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in current winter, while in the northeast YRB, be weakened by negative Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in current spring, Atlantic Meridional Mode in current summer and positive SCS in current autumn. Besides, the identified significant climate indices can partly explain the temporal changes of precipitation unevenness, and their explanatory ability is more powerful in the south‐central, southeast and northwest YRB than in the north‐central and northeast YRB, which reveals a strong negative correlation with the degree of precipitation unevenness.

Influence of the previous North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the spring dust aerosols over North China

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been confirmed to be closely related to the weather and climate in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere; however, its effect and mechanism upon the formation of dust events (DEs) in China have rarely been discussed. By using the station observation dataset and multi-reanalysis datasets, it is found that the spring dust aerosols (DAs) in North China (30–40∘ N, 105–120∘ E), a non-dust source region, show high values with a strong interannual variability, and the spring DAs in North China are significantly correlated with the previous winter's NAO. According to the nine spring DEs affected significantly by the negative phase of the preceding winter's NAO in North China during 1980–2020, it is shown that before the outbreak of DEs, due to the transient eddy momentum (heat) convergence (divergence) over the DA source regions, the zonal wind speed increases in the upper-level troposphere, strengthening the zonal wind in the middle–lower levels through momentum downward transmission. Simultaneously, there is transient eddy momentum (heat) divergence (convergence) around the Ural Mountains, which is favorable for the establishment and maintenance of the Ural ridge, as well as the development of the air temperature and vorticity advections. The combined effects of temperature and vorticity advections result in the Siberian Highs and Mongolian cyclone to be established, strengthen, and move southward near the surface, guiding the cold air from high latitudes southward, and is favorable for the uplift and transmission of DAs to North China downstream. Simultaneously, the changes in upstream transient eddy flux transport can cause both energy and mass divergence in North China, resulting in diminishing winds during DEs, which would facilitate the maintenance of dust aerosols here and promote the outbreak of DEs. This study reveals the impact of transient eddy flux transport on the dusty weather anomalies modulated by the NAO negative signal in North China, which deepens the understanding of the formation mechanism of DEs in China.

Impacts of large-scale circulation patterns on the temperature extremes in the cold regions of China with global warming

The cold regions of China (CRC) are important and vulnerable freshwater recharge areas on land, and any changes in them are related to the survival of millions of people in East Asia. However, for nearly half a century, in cold regions, the extreme temperature response to global warming is still poorly understood. In this study, we systematically studied the temperature extreme changes in cold regions of China since 1961 and discussed the possible circulation factors in detail. The results showed that 1) the warming magnitudes in cold nights and warm nights are greater than those in cold days and warm days, and decreases in cold nights and cold days and increases in warm days and warm nights appeared in almost all of cold regions of China. Most of the temperature indices displayed the largest magnitudes of warming in winter. 2) Spatially, for most of the temperature extremes, the stations located at Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (TPC) and Northwest China (NWC) showed a larger warming trend than that shown by the station at Northeast China (NEC). 3) The responses of temperature extremes at different cold regions to each circulation index are variable. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) has a significant relationship with almost all the indices in cold regions of China. Almost all the temperature extremes of TPC and NWC showed closely relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), especially for diurnal temperature range (DTR), daily maximum temperature, and the cold extremes. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is significantly related to most the temperature indices of Northwest China and Northeast China. However, MEI has a significant impact on only TPC’s diurnal temperature range and warmest night (TNx). 4) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation displayed significant relationships with most the temperature extremes in every season in cold regions of China. However, the summer and winter MEI and the summer and winter North Atlantic Oscillation showed significant impacts on only diurnal temperature range, daily minimum temperatures (TNm), and TNx.

Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy‐Driven Jet in Winter

AbstractThis paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet's location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2–9 from the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960–2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO, jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy‐driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest that the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Tropical Forcing of Barents‐Kara Sea Ice During Autumn

AbstractThe causality of the link between Autumn Barents‐Kara (BK) sea ice and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is uncertain, given teleconnections stemming from the tropics may influence both the extra‐tropics and the Arctic. We explore the relationship between tropical rainfall and BK sea ice in autumn, by nudging the tropics to follow observed variability in otherwise free running ensemble simulations. Tropical forcing alone can skillfully reproduce a significant fraction of observed interannual NAO variability in late autumn. We also show that interannual variability in the NAO is strongly related to simulated BK sea ice. As a result, we are able to reproduce some of the observed link between tropical rainfall and autumn BK sea ice. However, only during the strong 1997 El Niño are clear tropical influences at high latitudes found. Large ensembles and strong tropical forcing are required to detect tropical forced variability in models at high latitudes.

Role of multi-decadal variability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Northern Hemisphere climate

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays a leading role in modulating wintertime climate over the North Atlantic and the surrounding continents of Europe and North America. Here we show that the observed evolution of the NAO displays larger multi-decadal variability than that simulated by nearly all CMIP6 models. To investigate the role of the NAO as a pacemaker of multi-decadal climate variability, we analyse simulations that are constrained to follow the observed NAO. We use a particle filter data-assimilation technique that sub-selects members that follow the observed NAO among an ensemble of simulations, as well as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode in a global climate model, without the use of nudging terms. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations can be used to compare the simulated forced response to the effect of the three assimilated modes. Concentrating on the 28 year periods of strongest observed NAO trends, we show that NAO variability leads to large multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation over Northern Hemisphere land as well as in sea-ice concentration. The Atlantic subpolar gyre region is particularly strongly influenced by the NAO, with links found to both concurrent atmospheric variability and to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Care thus needs to be taken to account for impacts of the NAO when using sea surface temperature in this region as a proxy for AMOC strength over decadal to multi-decadal time-scales. Our results have important implications for climate analyses of the North Atlantic region and highlight the need for further work to understand the causes of multi-decadal NAO variability.

Long-lasting impact of winter North Atlantic Oscillation on Barents-Kara sea ice anomaly in recent decades

In this paper, the long-lasting impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Arctic sea ice is investigated using reanalysis data, with focus on the Barents–Kara (BK) sea where the air-sea-ice response is closely associated with the interdecadal shift in the northern action center of the NAO. A significant negative correlation between the winter NAO and the late autumn BK sea ice has been dominant since the early 2000s, which is in sharp contrast to the extremely weak correlation before the late 20th century. When the northern center of the NAO retreats westward, a prevailing low-level southerly wind anomaly creates significant positive air temperature anomalies over the BK sea, and the induced ocean current strengthens the northward transport of warm sea water, resulting in a positive BK upper-layer ocean temperature anomaly and a negative sea ice anomaly until early spring. Entering summer, the preexisting less-than-normal sea ice causes the amount of solar shortwave radiation absorbed by the upper-layer sea water to significantly increase and thereby continues to warm up the upper layer of sea water and reduce the sea ice. The warmed sea water enables the negative sea ice anomaly to last until late autumn owing to its relatively large specific heat capacity. Thus, the NAO in the previous winter exerts a long-lasting impact on the BK sea ice.

Phase asymmetry in synoptic eddy feedbacks on the negatively-skewed winter NAO

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exhibits a significantly negative skewness (−0.68) that the stronger dynamic structure characterizes the negative NAO. This study quantitatively investigates the phase asymmetries in different types of synoptic-scale eddy feedbacks associated with the winter-mean NAO, and the roles of different physical processes in eddy feedbacks are further clarified based on previous theories. The integrated feedback induced by eddy vorticity flux and eddy heat flux is stronger in the negative phase of NAO compared to the positive phase, which may provide an atmospheric internal dynamic explanation for the negative skewness of the winter NAO. This phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback is majorly contributed by the eddy vorticity flux–induced dynamic feedback, whose related physical processes involving eddy transport and secondary meridional circulation are stronger under the negative NAO. The eddy transport directly generates positive feedback to the NAO flow, and in addition, the secondary meridional circulation modulates the initially vertically-uneven dynamic feedback to become barotropic. In contrast, the weakly positive net contribution of eddy heat flux–induced thermodynamic feedback, which has received less attention in previous research, can somewhat dampen the phase asymmetry of integrated eddy feedback. The eddy heat flux generates positive (negative) feedback on the NAO flow in the lower (upper) troposphere via a secondary meridional circulation, thus leading to the integrated synoptic-scale eddy feedback being relatively stronger (weaker) in the lower (upper) troposphere.

Raising offspring increases ageing: Differences in senescence among three populations of a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin.

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990-2020) of parallel capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3-5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ=-0.009) than on the two other colonies. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies.

The Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Dust Emissions in East Asia (2000–2021)

The climate effect and environmental pollution caused by dust discharged into the atmosphere have attracted much attention. However, the driving factors of dust emissions have not been studied thoroughly. Here, spatiotemporal variations in dust emissions and the relationship between dust emissions and large-scale atmospheric circulation in East Asia from 2000 to 2021 were investigated using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar Pathfinder Satellite Observations, ERA5 reanalysis data, and climate indices. Results showed that the Taklimakan Desert in the Tarim Basin, the Gurbantonggut Desert in the Junggar Basin, the Turpan Basin, and the Gobi Desert in western Inner Mongolia and southern Mongolia are the main sources of dust emissions in East Asia. The period of strong dust emissions is from March to May, and emissions to the atmosphere were mainly distributed at 0–4 km in the troposphere. In the eastern and southwestern Tarim Basin, northern Junggar Basin, and parts of the Gobi Desert in southern Mongolia, dust emissions have significantly increased over the past 22 years, whereas in the southwestern Tibetan Plateau, southwestern Inner Mongolia, and a small part of the northern Mongolian Gobi Desert there was a significant decreasing trend. The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) were significantly negatively correlated with East Asian dust emissions the following spring. The various phases of the AO/NAO coupling have clear different effects on East Asian dust emissions in the spring. When the AO/NAO coupling was negative (positive), the East Asian trough and Siberian High were strengthened (weakened), the frequency of cold air activity increased (weakened), 800 hPa wind speed strengthened (weakened), and East Asian emissions increased (decreased). In AO−/NAO+ years, the Asian polar vortex was stronger to the south and the East Asian trough was stronger to the west. The Lake Baikal trough was in the deepening phase, which caused more polar cold air to move into East Asia, aggravating the intensity of dust activity. In the AO+/NAO− years, the Siberian High and East Asian trough weakened, which was unfavorable to the southward movement of cold air from Siberia. Therefore, the frequency of windy weather in East Asia decreased, partly weakening dust emissions. However, a positive geopotential anomaly in northeast China and a negative geopotential anomaly in South Asia triggered an anomalous enhancement in easterly wind in the tropospheric area over northwest China. Strengthening of the Balkhash trough provides favorable conditions for gale weather in northwest China. The frequency of gale weather increased, and dust emissions were enhanced in northwest China.

Relationship between cold season air temperature in the Baltic sea region and the Arctic sea ice extent

The variability of the atmospheric circulation described by the AO and NAO indices has a significant impact on the fluctuations of climate parameters in the Baltic Sea region. Many research show, that a decline in Arctic Sea ice extent increases the likelihood of negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, and in the future could lead to more frequent relatively cold weather events during winter months in Baltic Sea region. This research is important for understanding possible teleconnections between Arctic Sea ice and atmospheric circulation (AO and NAO). In addition, this research helps to better understand the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice extent and Baltic Sea region air temperature, as well as AO and NAO circulation impact on the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region. A statistically significant decrease in the Arctic Sea ice extent and a statistically significant increase in the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region have been determined. The obtained results show that the expansion of the Arctic Sea ice in January-February with a delay of one month determines the AO and NAO values (correlation coefficients vary from 0.32 to 0.55). This means that if Arctic Sea ice decreases during winter months, AO and NAO indices are more likely to become negative as well. However, as the obtained correlations are not very strong, the results are insufficient to confirm the hypothesis that the Arctic Sea ice extent impacts negative AO and NAO phases likelihood and requires further research. A strong correlation between the Baltic Sea region air temperature and the values of AO/NAO indices has been established. The obtained results show that the Baltic Sea region air temperature variability in December-March is greatly influenced by the AO and NAO phases. Keywords: teleconnections, Arctic Sea ice, AO, NAO, Baltic Sea region, air temperature.

Fast and Slow Subpolar Ocean Responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation: Thermal and Dynamical Changes

AbstractClimate model hindcasts are analyzed to reveal the impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the North Atlantic subpolar ocean, which exhibits variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. The ocean response to a single winter NAO event is separated into fast and slow responses. The fast response persists over winter–spring seasons, during which wind stress and heat flux anomalies associated with the NAO rapidly modify ocean temperatures via changes in Ekman transport and ocean‐atmosphere heat exchanges. The slow response persists for 3–4 years, during which overturning and gyre circulations redistribute opposing‐signed surface temperature anomalies created by the NAO. This redistribution modifies east‐west temperature contrasts altering the meridional heat transport associated with gyres and changing the strength of the overturning circulation. Hence, the fast and slow responses lead to opposing‐signed subpolar temperature anomalies in time from the competing effects of local forcing and horizontal heat convergence.

Modulation by the QBO of the Relationship between the NAO and Northeast China Temperature in Late Winter

Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) generally has an in-phase relationship with surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over Northeast China in late winter. The present study shows that such an NAO–SAT relationship becomes stronger during easterly phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), but is relatively weak during westerly phases. Observational evidence reveals that the modulation effect of the QBO on the NAO–SAT relationship over Northeast China is attributable to QBO-induced changes in the spatial structure of the NAO and associated stratosphere–troposphere coupling. During easterly QBO phases, the NAO has a strong connection with the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex, facilitating a hemisphere-wide structure of the NAO and thus a downstream extension of NAO signal from the Euro–Atlantic sector toward Northeast Asia. During westerly QBO phases, however, the NAO has a limited connection with the stratospheric polar vortex. In this case, the NAO features a classically regional mode, with the signal in the SAT field mainly confined to the Euro-Atlantic sector. By examining historical simulations from six climate models participating in CMIP6 and including stratospheric processes, it is found that none of these models captures a significant difference in the spatial structure of the NAO and its connection with the stratospheric polar vortex between the easterly and westerly QBO phases in late winter. A key reason may be related to the poor performance of the models in simulating the Holton–Tan effect, which is critical for linking the QBO and NAO. Significance Statement The QBO is the dominant mode of equatorial stratospheric variability and important for seasonal forecasting. This study aims to better understand the surface influence of the QBO by examining the relationship between the NAO and temperature anomalies over China according to the phases of the QBO during boreal winter. Our results highlight the importance of the QBO in modulating the spatial structure and thus climate impact of the NAO via stratosphere–troposphere coupling in observations, while state-of-the-art climate models perform poorly in simulating the QBO-related stratosphere–troposphere coupling and thus the QBO–NAO connection. These findings have important implications for seasonal prediction and model development in the future.

Persistence or Transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation Across Boreal Winter: Role of the North Atlantic Air‐Sea Coupling

AbstractClimate anomalies over North America and Europe are closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The persistence, decay or switch of the NAO phase across the boreal winter determines whether the NAO‐related climate anomalies are sustained, weakened or reversed during the boreal winter. This study compares the spatiotemporal evolution of atmospheric wind and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic corresponding to persistence and switch of the NAO phase across the boreal winter. It is revealed that the persistence of the NAO from early to late winter is associated with a strong coupling between the NAO and the North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies. The formation of the tripole SST anomalies is attributed to the wind‐related surface latent heat flux changes. The tripole SST anomalies feedback on the NAO through eddy‐mean flow interaction. In contrast, during the winters with the switch of the NAO phase, the North Atlantic SST anomalies follow the wind changes, but do not have obvious feedback on the NAO. Our analysis identifies a prominent change of the winter NAO evolution in the early 1990s. The NAO switches its phase from early to late winter during 1970s through the early 1990s, but tends to maintain its phase during the boreal winter after the early 1990s. This interdecadal change appears to be related to the mean SST change. The SST increase in both the tropical and mid‐latitude North Atlantic Ocean in the early 1990s enhances the feedback of the NAO‐induced tripole SST anomalies on the NAO.

Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Precipitation Changes of a Sub‐Region of the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic During 1979–2019

AbstractObservations of the seasonal mean precipitation averaged over a sub‐region of the U.S. mid‐Atlantic show significant increases in summer but no changes in winter during 1979–2019. Clarifying the drivers of these observed changes is important for understanding and interpreting future projections of regional precipitation by climate models. This study examines the relative effects of external forcing and internal variability in the observed multi‐decadal changes using the historical and RCP8.5/SSP585 simulations from 37 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), 35 models in CMIP6, as well as large ensemble simulations from 6 models, each including more than 20 members. During 1979–2019, enhanced warming over land relative to ocean due to external forcing induces low pressure anomalies over land that contribute to the wetting summer. While similar wetting also occurs during winter, such effect is offset by the drying associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Internal variability produces large uncertainty in the multi‐decadal precipitation changes simulated by climate models through changes in large‐scale circulation associated with the NAO in winter and the North Atlantic Subtropical High in summer. These multi‐decadal relationships between precipitation and large‐scale circulation under internal variability also manifest on inter‐annual timescale. These relationships highlight enhanced moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic in winter and near the mid‐Atlantic coast in summer that modulates precipitation change in the study region.

Impact of early winter North Atlantic Oscillation on the dramatic alternation of seesaw haze intensity between late winter months in the North China Plain

The impact of early winter (December) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the subsequent dramatic seesaw haze intensity alternation (DSHA) phenomenon in the North China Plain (NCP) between late winter months of January and February is identified based on observational analyses and Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Numerical Simulation (CESM-LENS) datasets in this study. Our research suggests that the late winter abrupt subseasonal haze intensity enhancement is preceded by the negative NAO-like pattern in December, and vice versa. Detailed analysis indicates that persistent North Atlantic tripole (NAT) sea surface temperature (SST) patterns play a crucial oceanic bridging role in relaying the delayed influence of NAO from December to the following January. In this circumstance, negative December NAO can induce a profound planetary-scale zonal Rossby wavetrain emanating from the central North Atlantic, in which the southern branch of this wavetrain propagates the negative NAO signal downstream to northeastern Asia, forming the Northeast Asian cyclonic anomaly in January and facilitating the repressed haze intensity via inducing the haze-unfavorable meteorology. However, in the subsequent February, the cyclonic anomaly centered southeast of the Yamal Peninsula plays a critical role in prolonging the influence of the December NAO, acting as an intermediate atmospheric bridge effect. The notable Northeast Asian anticyclonic anomaly can be induced in February accordingly, thus facilitating the haze intensity enhancement in the NCP via inducing the haze-favorable meteorology. As such, the dramatic subseasonal haze enhancement in the NCP between late winter months can be triggered by the preceding early winter NAO. It shows that the early winter NAO could be considered as a crucial precursory atmospheric signal predicting the late winter DSHA phenomenon in the NCP.

On the Origin of the Solar Cycle Modulation of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation

AbstractUsing data from recent 64 years, we found that the zonal wind signal associated with the winter‐mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) tends to extend into the upper stratosphere when solar activity is high, but the vertical extension is limited when solar activity is low. To examine the physical source of this phenomenon, the momentum and wave‐energy budget are analyzed using the 63‐winter record of the Japanese Reanalysis data set from 1958 to 2021. These analyses show that (a) the zonal‐mean momentum acceleration is driven by eddies throughout the entire depth of the atmosphere around 60°N, (b) the barotropic energy conversion from eddies to zonal‐mean flow is centered in the middle stratosphere around 55°N, and (c) the baroclinic energy conversion from zonal‐mean flow to eddies from the surface to the middle stratosphere around 60°N tends to be enhanced from December to February associated with the positive winter‐mean NAO index in High Solar (HS) activity years. These energy transfers are closely related to enhanced zonal wind. These analyses suggest that the structural modulation of the NAO due to the solar cycle comes from the enhanced sensitivity of the wave‐mean flow interaction in the stratosphere in HS years, which is broadly shared with the solar cycle modulation of the late‐winter Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

AbstractVariability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO‐dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi‐model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi‐model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO.

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

AbstractClimate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high‐emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.