Wind Profiles Research Articles

Tropical cyclone low-level wind speed, shear, and veer: sensitivity to the boundary layer parametrization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Abstract. Mesoscale modeling can be used to analyze key parameters for wind turbine load assessment in a large variety of tropical cyclones. However, the modeled wind structure of tropical cyclones is known to be sensitive to the boundary layer scheme. We analyze modeled wind speed, shear, and wind veer across a wind turbine rotor plane in the eyewall and outer cyclone. We further assess the sensitivity of wind speed, shear, and veer to the boundary layer parametrization. Three model realizations of Typhoon Megi are analyzed over the open ocean using three frequently used boundary layer schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. All three typhoon simulations reasonably reproduce the cyclone track and structure. The boundary layer parametrization causes up to 15 % differences in median wind speed at hub height between the simulations. The simulated wind speed variability also depends on the boundary layer scheme. The modeled median wind shear is smaller than or equal to 0.11 used in the current IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission) standard regardless of the boundary layer scheme for the eyewall and outer cyclone region. However, up to 43.6 % of the simulated wind profiles in the eyewall region exceed 0.11. While the surface inflow angle is sensitive to the boundary layer scheme, wind veer in the lowest 400 m of the atmospheric boundary layer is less affected by the boundary layer scheme. Simulated median wind veer reaches values up to 1.7×10-2° m−1 (1.2×10-2° m−1) in the eyewall region (outer cyclone region) and is relatively small compared to moderate-wind-speed regimes. On average, simulated wind speed shear and wind veer are highest in the eyewall region. Yet strong spatial organization of wind shear and veer along the rainbands may increase wind turbine loads due to rapid changes in the wind profile at the turbine location.

Investigating the impact of coupling HARMONIE-WINS50 (cy43) meteorology to LOTOS-EUROS (v2.2.002) on a simulation of NO2 concentrations over the Netherlands

Abstract. Meteorological fields calculated by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models drive offline chemical transport models (CTMs) to solve the transport, chemical reactions, and atmospheric interaction over the geographical domain of interest. HARMONIE (HIRLAM ALADIN Research on Mesoscale Operational NWP in Euromed) is a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic NWP community model used at several European weather agencies to forecast weather at the local and/or regional scale. In this work, the HARMONIE WINS50 (cycle 43 cy43) reanalysis dataset at a resolution of 0.025° × 0.025° covering an area surrounding the North Sea for the years 2019–2021 was coupled offline to the LOTOS-EUROS (LOng-Term Ozone Simulation-EURopean Operational Smog model, v2.2.002) CTM. The impact of using either meteorological fields from HARMONIE or from ECMWF on LOTOS-EUROS simulations of NO2 has been evaluated against ground-level observations and TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 vertical columns. Furthermore, the difference between crucial meteorological input parameters such as the boundary layer height and the vertical diffusion coefficient between the hydrostatic ECMWF and non-hydrostatic HARMONIE data has been studied, and the vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and wind are evaluated against meteorological observations at Cabauw in The Netherlands. The results of these first evaluations of the LOTOS-EUROS model performance in both configurations are used to investigate current uncertainties in air quality forecasting in relation to driving meteorological parameters and to assess the potential for improvements in forecasting pollution episodes at high resolutions based on the HARMONIE NWP model.

Balloon drift estimation and improved position estimates for radiosondes

Abstract. When comparing model output with historical radiosonde observations, it is usually assumed that a radiosonde has risen exactly above its starting point and has not been displaced by wind. This changed only relatively recently with the availability of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers aboard radiosondes in the late 1990s, but even then the balloon trajectory data were often not transmitted, although this information was the basis for estimating the wind in the first place. Depending on the conditions and time of year, radiosondes can sometimes drift a few hundred kilometres, particularly at the middle latitudes during the winter months. The position errors can lead to non-negligible representation errors when the corresponding observations are assimilated. This paper presents a methodology to compute changes in the balloon position during its vertical ascent, using only limited information, such as the vertical profile of wind contained in the historical observation reports. The sensitivity of the method to various parameters is investigated, such as the vertical resolution of the input data, the assumption about the vertical ascent speed of the balloon, and the departure of the surface of Earth from a sphere. The paper considers modern GNSS sonde data reports for validation, for which the full trajectory of the balloon is available, alongside the reported wind. Evaluation is also conducted by comparison with ERA5 and by conducting low-resolution data assimilation experiments. Overall, the results indicate that the trajectory of the radiosondes can be accurately reconstructed from original data of varying vertical resolutions and that the more accurate balloon position reduces representation errors and, in some cases, systematic errors.

AirCore Observations at Northern Tibetan Plateau During the Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractWe present data and analysis of a set of balloon‐borne sounding profiles, which includes co‐located O3, CO, CH4, and particles, over the northern Tibetan Plateau during an Asian summer monsoon (ASM) season. These novel measurements shed light on the ASM transport behavior near the northern edge of the anticyclone. Joint analyses of these species with the temperature and wind profiles and supported by back trajectory modeling identify three distinct transport processes that dominate the vertical chemical structure in the middle troposphere, upper troposphere (UT), and the tropopause region. The correlated changes in profile structures in the middle troposphere highlight the influence of the strong westerly jet. Elevated constituent concentrations in the UT identify the main level of convective transport at the upstream source regions. Observed higher altitude maxima for CH4 characterize the airmasses' continued ascent following convection. These data complement constituent observations from other parts of the ASM anticyclone.

Study on Non-Stationary Wind Speed Models and Wind Load Design Parameters Based on Data from the Beijing 325 m Meteorological Tower, 1991–2020

As the capital of China and a densely populated major city, the characteristics of Beijing’s near-surface wind field change significantly with the increase in the density of underlying urban structures. The high randomness of natural wind makes it extremely difficult to develop a universally applicable wind-resistant load design code based on topographic factors and architectural features. This article takes the wind speeds recorded at 15 different height levels within the urban area by the 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing from 1991 to 2020 as the research subject. It quantifies the wind speed trends at different heights and introduces time-varying functions to establish a non-stationary wind speed model based on the optimal model. Additionally, it compares the basic wind speeds and wind pressure height variation coefficients obtained from measurements with the standards. The results show that, during the past 30 years of urbanization, the near-surface wind speed in the Beijing area has shown a decreasing trend. The model incorporating time-varying functions exhibited the best fit and demonstrated good predictive capabilities, with its calculated basic wind speeds being relatively high. The wind pressure height variation coefficient values in Beijing are between Class C and Class D terrains, being closer to Class C at lower altitudes. The conclusion reveals that urbanization has a significant impact on wind speeds, primarily concentrated at lower height levels, and that the basic wind speeds calculated based on standards underestimate the actual conditions when this impact is not considered. Although the average wind speed’s wind profile index across the entire time series is mostly greater than the fixed value of 0.3 given by Class D, this represents an overestimated wind profile index for maximum wind speeds.

Footprint of the air-sea momentum transfer saturation observed by ocean wave buoy network in extreme tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive natural phenomena, causing tremendous coastal disasters worldwide. The maximum intensity of tropical cyclones is determined by momentum and heat transfer at the air-sea interface. Momentum transfer corresponds to the momentum loss of tropical cyclones and, consequently, to the underlying ocean's momentum gain causing extreme ocean waves and storm surges. Air-side observations of wind profiles and ocean-side observations of ocean subsurface currents show a slowdown of momentum transfer under high tropical cyclone wind speeds in the previous studies. However, there is still disagreement regarding the slowdown owing to lack of data. Here, we show momentum transfer under high wind speed conditions by observing ocean waves. Although ocean wave observations are highly spatially limited, we deployed a fleet of drifting ocean wave buoys covering the active area of tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific. The buoy fleet captured extreme waves near the eye of the strongest category 5 tropical cyclone, indicating an ocean wave footprint of the momentum transfer saturation above surface wind speeds of 25 m/s. Our approach from ocean surface wave observation is a unique contribution to determination on air-sea momentum transfer slowdown under extreme wind speeds, which can compensate for the knowledge from conventional air and ocean-side observations. This finding advances tropical cyclones, extreme ocean waves, and storm surge modeling.

Excitation of mixed Rossby–gravity waves by wave–mean flow interactions on the sphere

AbstractThe equatorial mixed Rossby–gravity wave (MRGW) is an important contributor to tropical variability. Its excitation mechanism capable of explaining the observed MRGW variance peak at synoptic scales in the troposphere remains elusive. This study investigates wave–mean flow interactions as a generation process for the MRGWs using the TIGAR model, which employs Hough harmonics as the basis of spectral expansion on the sphere, thereby representing MRGWs as prognostic variables. Idealized numerical simulations reveal the interactions between waves emanating from a symmetric tropical heat source and an asymmetric subtropical zonal jet as an excitation mechanism for the MRGWs. The excited MRGWs have variance spectra resembling the observed MRGWs in the tropical troposphere. The mixed Rossby–gravity energy spectrum has a maximum at zonal wavenumbers –5 also in the case of an asymmetric forcing that generates MRGWs across large scales. Effects of wave–wave interactions appear of little importance for the MRGW growth compared with wave–mean flow interactions. Application of the zonal‐mean zonal wind profiles from ERA5 reaffirms the importance of the asymmetry of the zonal mean flow.

Adaptation of Wind Drag Coefficient Parameterization: Improvement of Hydrodynamic Modeling by a Wave‐Dependent Cd in Large Shallow Lakes

AbstractWind is a critical driving force in hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of large shallow lakes, and is characterized by the wind drag coefficient Cd, representing the momentum transfer at the air‐water interface. Contemporary empirical formulae for Cd estimation were derived over oceans and some of which are solely wind velocity U10 dependent. These formulae were previously found to be inadequate in inland lake models often resulting in the water velocity underestimation. To address this problem, a physical scale experiment was designed, in which Cd was measured using a wind profile and eddy covariance methodology. A new wind‐induced wave‐dependent Cd parameterization was also established and validated in two lake studies. The driving force was modified by the wave‐dependent Cd formula in a hydrodynamic model of the shallow Upper Klamath Lake (UKL), OR, USA. The experimental Cd was negatively correlated to the wind velocity up until the critical U10 = 1.6 m s−1 which was 1.0~3.1 times previous empirical extrapolations at light winds. The variation partitioning results showed that wave parameters contributed to more than 30% of Cd variation combined with wind parameters. The modified wind stress field was spatially heterogeneous and the modeled water velocity was closer to the observations at two sites. Significant main circulation and outer bank circulation were modeled accompanied by higher surface vorticity, compared to the original UKL model. Overall, the wave‐dependent Cd formula provided an improvement of the surface flow field in the UKL model and will improve the management of the lake ecosystems.

Experimental study on rooftop flow field of building based on the operation of vertical-axis wind turbines

Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) demonstrate good adaptability for harnessing wind energy on the building rooftops. However, knowledge gaps still exist in the understanding of the wind resources on the rooftop, the operation of VAWTs, and its effect on the wind field. To add new knowledge on this subject, the operation of wind turbines modeled by the NACA0018 airfoil on the rooftop of a building is experimentally studied via wind tunnel. The results indicate that flow above the rooftop of building shows an obvious speed reduction due to the blunt body effect of the turbines, and the turbulence intensities are dramatically enhanced. The different tip-speed ratios, wind directions, and installation locations of wind turbine have significant effect on flow field on the roof. Due to the flow characteristics above the rooftop, the power spectral density of the fluctuating wind speed exhibits high energy below the top position of the VAWT on the rooftop. Additionally, the wind profiles and probability distribution of the wake of VAWTs on the rooftop are analyzed and mathematically fitted for quantifying wind field characteristics rooftop turbines on the roof. For the VAWTs investigated in this study, the impacts of the operation of VAWTs on the wind field are non-negligible on the roof of building. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights for the optimal placement of VAWTs and utilization of wind energy on the rooftops.

The Wind Profile Characteristics of Super Typhoon Lekima Based on Field Measurement

Many cities in coastal areas are prone to typhoon disasters due to their location on the Pacific storm path, and the direct effect of catastrophic winds can lead to the destruction of low-rise buildings and severe damage to high-rise structures. The purpose of this study was to enhance the understanding of boundary layer wind profiles of strong typhoons in coastal areas and reduce property losses and casualties caused by wind disasters. Based on the field measurements of wind profile acoustic radar in coastal areas, the variation characteristics of the boundary layer wind profile during the passage of super typhoon Lekima were first studied in depth, and the evolution law of the typhoon boundary layer profile was summarized. Then, the effects of typhoon horizontal structure, topography, wind speed, and time distance on the characteristics of the typhoon profile were discussed, respectively. Finally, the evolution characteristics of wind profile parameters were obtained by fitting three wind profile theoretical models. Due to the strong variability of typhoon profile morphology, the theoretical model of wind profile is only applicable to the wind profile from the bottom to the low-level jet height of typhoons, while wind parameters are closely related to the spatial location of the typhoon wind field.

Multi-scale simulation of typhoon wind field at building scale utilizing mesoscale model with nested large eddy simulation

Based on the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research Forecast) and LES (Large Eddy Simulation), an integrated numerical simulation framework aiming to resolve typhoon wind fields around urban building blocks has been developed. The holistic multi-scale simulation spans four scales: macroscale (∼1000 km), mesoscale (∼100 km), microscale (∼1 km), and building scale (0.1–100m). By interactively sharing the meteorological data among different scales, this simulation framework addressed the challenge of downscaling typhoon effects in urban environments. Typhoon weather reanalysis and urban wind field simulation were conducted by the WRF model with nested computational domains incorporating high-resolution topography data. For the downscaled LES model with urban buildings, the wind profiles produced by the WRF model were used at the interface with provided turbulent fluctuations in the flow. K11 building is a 270-m-tall building located in a densely built-up area of Hong Kong. Wind velocity and pressure fields surrounding the K11 building in Hong Kong during Typhoon Kammuri were obtained by the proposed framework, and the simulation results were validated by comparing with the meteorological data and full-scale measurements at the top of the K11 building. The interactions of the wind fields and building clusters resulting in vortex shedding, separation, and channeling effects have been resolved at high resolutions. Probabilistic distributions and higher-order statistics of wind pressure, i.e., skewness and kurtosis, were presented to highlight non-Gaussian characteristics of the simulated local wind pressure on the K11 building. Based on the simulated wind pressure, wind-induced vibration of the K11 building during the typhoon was analyzed and compared to the measurements.

Wind Profile Reconstruction Based on Convolutional Neural Network for Incoherent Doppler Wind LiDAR

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning has revolutionized the field of data analysis in recent years, including signal data acquired by remote sensors. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology is widely used in atmospheric research for measuring various atmospheric parameters. Wind measurement using LiDAR data has traditionally relied on the spectral centroid (SC) algorithm. However, this approach has limitations in handling LiDAR data, particularly in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regions. To overcome these limitations, this study leverages the capabilities of customized deep-learning techniques to achieve accurate wind profile reconstruction. The study uses datasets obtained from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and the mobile Incoherent Doppler LiDAR (ICDL) system constructed by the University of Science and Technology of China. We present a simulation-based approach for generating wind profiles from the statistical data and the associated theoretical calculations. Whereafter, our team constructed a convolutional neural network (CNN) model based on the U-Net architecture to replace the SC algorithm for LiDAR data post-processing. The CNN-generated results are evaluated and compared with the SC results and the ERA5 data. This study highlights the potential of deep learning-based techniques in atmospheric research and their ability to provide more accurate and reliable results.

Geospatial optimisation of wind and solar energy generation: A framework for optimised resource allocation

Wind and solar power generation profiles exhibit a high degree of power output variability and uncertainty compared to conventional fossil fuel generation plants. However, it is generally accepted that this variability and uncertainty can be mitigated by geographic siting and dispersion of the renewable energy plants, particularly with the view to leverage aggregation effects. In this context, this paper proposes a framework for the geospatial optimisation of wind and solar PV generation for scenarios with a high penetration of wind and solar renewable energy. The proposed optimisation framework represents a probabilistic risk-based approach that seeks to minimise the number of events where high residual load values require ancillary service interventions to maintain power balance. In this approach, the wind and solar resources are categorised in terms of the statistical properties of the associated spatiotemporal wind and solar power profiles for a given set of daily and seasonal Time of Use periods. It is thereby recognised that the resource characteristics and grid impact of wind and solar generation profiles can be interpreted with reference to the daily and seasonal cycles exhibited by the demand profiles, wherein some Time of Use periods are more important than others. The proposed framework is implemented for a number of baseline case studies and optimisation case studies, using wind and solar resource data sets covering South Africa. Overall, it is concluded that this approach can leverage geospatial site optimisation to substantially reduce the risks associated with high residual load events. Furthermore, the proposed framework is highly flexible in that the formulation of the minimum and maximum allocation constraints allows application for real-world scenarios whereby stringent capacity allocation constraints can be applied.

In-event surrogate model training for regional transmission tower-line system dynamic responses prediction in realistic hurricane wind fields

Surrogate models have shown improved accuracy in predicting infrastructure responses during dynamic loadings. However, training a surrogate model for complex loading inputs across the entire hazard region remains challenging. This study provides insight into the training of surrogate models to estimate the responses of transmission tower-line structures in a coupled high-dimensional and high-resolution wind field and presents innovative methods for addressing these challenges. Four data- and physics-based spatial-temporal decoupling sampling methods are employed and cross-compared to obtain the most representative in-event wind profiles for training the surrogate model. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is utilised as the surrogate model framework to predict the dynamic responses of the structure during the 2017 Hurricane Harvey. The accuracy and robustness of two transmission tower-line structure configuration surrogate models are validated by comparing the predictions with finite element analyses by using randomly distributed temporal and geospatial wind profiles throughout the hurricane. Finally, a single LSTM surrogate model is developed, trained by applying the full reference wind speed range of Hurricane Harvey for the regional-scale structural performance evaluation of the transmission tower-line system. The results demonstrate that the proposed surrogate model training methodology is general and can be applied to regional-scale structural performance evaluations.

The Day‐To‐Day Variability of the Dayside Equatorial Ionospheric Plasma Drifts and Neutral Winds Observed by ICON

AbstractIn this study, we utilize ICON observations from 2019 to 2022 to analyze the variability of vertical plasma drift and its relationship with the neutral winds. The results reveal that there are 19% of downward plasma drifts at 13–17 LT, which changes with seasons and longitudes. The downward plasma drift occurs less frequently compared to the contemporaneous counter electrojet during solstices. We identify the relationship between vertical plasma drifts and north foot magnetic zonal and meridional wind profiles at 90–300 km altitudes. As the vertical plasma drifts become small or downward, the zonal winds display diverse variations at the altitudes; that is, the disturbances are eastward at 95–120 km altitudes, westward at 120–160 km altitudes, and eastward above 180 km altitudes, while the meridional winds present weak changes in all altitudes. Additionally, we discuss the possible roles of the E‐ and F‐region dynamos on the vertical plasma drifts.

Artificial neural network-based direct power control to enhance the performance of a PMSG-wind energy conversion system under real wind speed and parameter uncertainties: An experimental validation

With the increasing emphasis on embedding advanced technology into system controls, the Direct Power Control (DPC) approach has garnered considerable attention due to its simple and highly adaptable algorithm. This approach has been increasingly recognized in numerous applications. However, the variable frequency, harmonic distortion of the currents, and power ripples caused by Hysteresis controllers and switching tables decrease its effectiveness and robustness, affecting the system’s performance. For this reason, this paper proposed a new DPC based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches. In this approach, the hysteresis comparator and the switching table are substituted with ANN controllers and then applied on both sides: machine-side converter (MSC) and grid-side converter (GSC) of a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator based Wind Energy Conversion System (PMSG-WECS). Moreover, to make the system more efficient in varying wind conditions, this study expands the utilization of the artificial neural networks (ANN) to encompass the maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control strategy. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on the system behaviors, a simulation test was carried out in the Matlab/Simulink environment, using a real wind profile of a Moroccan city (Essaouira). In comparison to the classical DPC control, the simulation results showed the superior performance of the proposed ANN-DPC control in terms of reference tracking, response time, overshoot, precision, and its capacity to reduce the rate of power ripples and total harmonic distortion (THD) in the injected currents. Furthermore, a robustness test was also included in this work to check the robustness of the proposed control against parameters variation. In conclusion, the feasibility and effectiveness of the ANN-DPC control approach were confirmed through experimental validation using the dSPACE DS1104 board.

Machine learning methods to improve spatial predictions of coastal wind speed profiles and low-level jets using single-level ERA5 data

Abstract. Observations of the wind speed at heights relevant for wind power are sparse, especially offshore, but with emerging aid from advanced statistical methods, it may be possible to derive information regarding wind profiles using surface observations. In this study, two machine learning (ML) methods are developed for predictions of (1) coastal wind speed profiles and (2) low-level jets (LLJs) at three locations of high relevance to offshore wind energy deployment: the US Northeastern Atlantic Coastal Zone, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The ML models are trained on multiple years of lidar profiles and utilize single-level ERA5 variables as input. The models output spatial predictions of coastal wind speed profiles and LLJ occurrence. A suite of nine ERA5 variables are considered for use in the study due to their physics-based relevance in coastal wind speed profile genesis and the possibility to observe these variables in real-time via measurements. The wind speed at 10 ma.s.l. and the surface sensible heat flux are shown to have the highest importance for both wind speed profile and LLJ predictions. Wind speed profile predictions output by the ML models exhibit similar root mean squared error (RMSE) with respect to observations as is found for ERA5 output. At typical hub heights, the ML models show lower RMSE than ERA5 indicating approximately 5 % RMSE reduction. LLJ identification scores are evaluated using the symmetric extremal dependence index (SEDI). LLJ predictions from the ML models outperform predictions from ERA5, demonstrating markedly higher SEDIs. However, optimization utilizing the SEDI results in a higher number of false alarms when compared to ERA5.

Influence of radiosonde observations on the sharpness and altitude of the midlatitude tropopause in the ECMWF IFS

Abstract. Initial conditions of current numerical weather prediction systems insufficiently represent the sharp vertical gradients across the midlatitude tropopause. Data assimilation may provide a means to improve tropopause structure by correcting the erroneous background forecast towards the observations. In this paper, the influence of assimilating radiosonde observations on tropopause structure, i.e., the sharpness and altitude, is investigated in the ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System. We evaluate 9729 midlatitude radiosondes launched during 1 month in autumn 2016. About 500 of these radiosondes, launched on request during the North Atlantic Waveguide Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) field campaign, are used to set up an observing system experiment (OSE) that comprises two assimilation forecast experiments, one run with and one without the non-operational soundings. The influence on the tropopause is assessed in a statistical, tropopause-relative evaluation of observation departures of temperature, static stability (N2), wind speed, and wind shear from the background forecast and the analysis. Temperature is overestimated by the background at the tropopause (warm bias, ∼ 1 K) and underestimated in the lower stratosphere (cold bias, −0.3 K) leading to an underestimation of the abrupt increase in N2 at the tropopause. The increments (differences in analysis and background) reduce these background biases and improve tropopause sharpness. Profiles with sharper tropopause exhibit stronger background biases but also an increased positive influence of the observations on temperature and N2 in the analysis. Wind speed is underestimated in the background, especially in the upper troposphere (∼ 1 m s−1), but the assimilation improves the wind profile. For the strongest winds the background bias is roughly halved. The positive influence on the analysis wind profile is associated with an improved vertical distribution of wind shear, particularly in the lower stratosphere. We furthermore detect a shift in the analysis tropopause altitude towards the observations. The evaluation of the OSE highlights that the diagnosed tropopause sharpening can be primarily attributed to the radiosondes. This study shows that data assimilation improves wind and temperature gradients across the tropopause, but the sharpening is small compared with the model biases. Hence, the analysis still systematically underestimates tropopause sharpness which may negatively impact weather and climate forecasts.

Extending the wind profile beyond the surface layer by combining physical and machine learning approaches

Abstract. Accurate estimation of the wind profile, especially in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere, is of great significance for the weather, climate, and renewable energy sector. Nevertheless, the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory fails above the surface layer over a heterogeneous underlying surface, causing an unreliable wind profile to be obtained from conventional extrapolation methods. To solve this problem, we propose a novel method called the PLM-RF method that combines the power-law method (PLM) with the random forest (RF) algorithm to extend wind profiles beyond the surface layer. The underlying principle is to treat the wind profile as a power-law distribution in the vertical direction, with the power-law exponent (α) determined by the PLM-RF model. First, the PLM-RF model is constructed based on the atmospheric sounding data from 119 radiosonde (RS) stations across China and in conjunction with other data such as surface wind speed, land cover type, surface roughness, friction velocity, geographical location, and meteorological parameters from June 2020 to May 2021. Afterwards, the performance of the PLM-RF, PLM, and RF methods over China is evaluated by comparing them with RS observations. Overall, the wind speed at 100 m from the PLM-RF model exhibits high consistency with RS measurements, with a determination coefficient (R2) of 0.87 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.92 m s−1. By contrast, the R2 and RMSE of wind speed results from the PLM (RF) method are 0.75 (0.83) and 1.37 (1.04) m s−1, respectively. This indicates that the estimates from the PLM-RF method are much closer to observations than those from the PLM and RF methods. Moreover, the RMSE of the wind profiles estimated by the PLM-RF model is relatively large for highlands, while it is small for plains. This result indicates that the performance of the PLM-RF model is affected by the terrain factor. Finally, the PLM-RF model is applied to three atmospheric radiation measurement sites for independent validation, and the wind profiles estimated by the PLM-RF model are found to be consistent with Doppler wind lidar observations. This confirms that the PLM-RF model has good applicability. These findings have great implications for the weather, climate, and renewable energy sector.

The Variations of Gravity Wave Activities During the Formation of the Large Horizontal Wind Shears in the Static State Lower Thermosphere

AbstractLarge horizontal winds and shears across the mesopause region have been observed by sounding rockets and satellites but with limited simultaneous temperature profiles to date. This feature is critical to the diagnosis of the insitu dynamic conditions. Theories suggest this feature may be related to variations of the atmosphere static stability, Brunt‐Väisälä frequency square (N2), and the wave activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) that cannot be resolved by the models. Since 2020, the Na Doppler lidar at Utah State University has attained several hundred hours of wind and temperature profiles in the MLT up to ∼110 km altitude. This paper focuses on the variations of these large winds and shears (>40 m/s/km), along with their potential relation to the activities of the various scales of gravity waves in the static state upper mesosphere, measured coordinately by the Advanced Mesospheric Temperature Mapper operating alongside the lidar. The investigation reveals that larger shears tend to occur in the meridional direction than the zonal direction and are observed more frequently in winter. The shears are comparable in both directions in summer and more large shears were observed in zonal direction. In addition, small shears occur when the medium‐scale waves are completely or partially blocked by the mean wind, though no convincing evidence relates small‐scale wave activities with these large winds and shears. Furthermore, small and decreasing N2 in the upper mesopause region are associated with insignificant magnitude of the shears.