Wildfires In Greece Research Articles

The political ecology of wildfire: Media and the politics of blame in the Evros wildfires in Greece

Wildfires are not only natural disasters but also political events. Media plays an important role in the power-laden process of meaning-making and responsibility-assigning that can significantly shape how societies understand and response to wildfires. To shed light on the role of media in the political ecology of wildfire, we conducted a framing analysis of 241 news articles on the Evros wildfires in Greece. We discovered five narratives of blame: migrant activities, government mismanagement, climate change, arson, and war. We argued that the politics of blame in the Greek context is deeply intertwined with the rise of national populism and xenophobic attitudes as a response to the European refugee crisis. This is evidenced by a dominant narrative that blamed transnational migrants as culprits. The blame politics of wildfires in Greece is also shaped by the political economy of the media that enhances state control over media narratives.

A Soil Moisture and Vegetation-Based Susceptibility Mapping Approach to Wildfire Events in Greece

Wildfires in Mediterranean areas are becoming more frequent, and the fire season is extending toward the spring and autumn months. These alarming findings indicate an urgent need to develop fire susceptibility methods capable of identifying areas vulnerable to wildfires. The present work aims to uncover possible soil moisture and vegetation condition precursory signals of the largest and most devastating wildfires in Greece that occurred in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Therefore, the time series of two remotely sensed datasets–MAP L4 Soil Moisture (SM) and Landsat 8 NDVI, which represent vegetation and soil moisture conditions—were examined before five destructive wildfires in Greece during the study period. The results of the analysis highlighted specific properties indicative of fire-susceptible areas. NDVI in all fire-affected areas ranged from 0.13 to 0.35, while mean monthly soil moisture showed negative anomalies in the spring periods preceding fires. Accordingly, fire susceptibility maps were developed, verifying the usefulness of remotely sensed information related to soil moisture and NDVI. This information should be used to enhance fire models and identify areas at risk of wildfires in the near future.

Effect of Climate Evolution on the Dynamics of the Wildfires in Greece

Effect of Climate Evolution on the Dynamics of the Wildfires in Greece

Socio-Psychological, Economic and Environmental Effects of Forest Fires

One of the most common forest disturbances, fire, has a significant influence on the people, societies, economies, and environment of countries all over the world. This study explores the different environmental and socioeconomic effects of forest fires to establish priorities for countries in battling and mitigating the harmful effects of forest fires based on data collected from 382 professionals working in Greece’s forestry and agriculture sectors. Secondary data, especially from Statista, were further utilized to enhance the analytical comparisons and conclusions of this study. Wildfires in Greece destroy agricultural land and greatly impact the rural economy and community. This study showed that forest fires have led to several economic costs, mainly affecting the incomes of different investors in the forest sector in Greece. It was revealed that the overall cost of a fire is determined by the direct and indirect expenditures as well as the price of fire control and preventative methods. Direct expenses are broken down into two categories: direct damage that occurs immediately and direct losses that are caused immediately after a fire. Governments should take the initiative to create and expand bilateral and/or multilateral cooperation and coordination, as well as exchange necessary financial resources, technology, and training, to reduce the effects of forest fires in a fragile international man-made and natural environment.

Optimizing Fuel Treatments Allocation to Protect the Wildland–Urban Interface from Large-Scale Wildfires in Greece

A crucial risk governance priority of the Greek forest managers is to reduce damages in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) by controlling wildfire behavior through fuel management practices. To support decisions for where management should be applied and how, this study experimented with new methods for fuel treatments allocation over a typical Mediterranean fire-prone landscape in the peninsula of Kassandra (an area of 350 km2), northern Greece. The Minimum Travel Time (MTT) fire simulation algorithm and the Treatment Optimization Model were used to produce eight spatial exclusionary and non-exclusionary datasets that were used as criteria for the spatial optimization of fuel management interventions. We used the Multicriteria Decisions Analysis method with Geographical Information Systems to cartographically intersect the criteria to produce two priority maps for two forest management scenarios (i.e., a control and a realistic one). The results revealed that 48 km2 of the study area was characterized as high-priority locations in the control scenario (i.e., with equally weighted management priorities), while 60 km2 was assigned to the high-priority class in the realistic scenario (i.e., with different weighted management priorities). Further analysis showed a substantial variation in treatment priority among the four major forest land cover types (broadleaves, sparse Mediterranean shrublands, conifers, and dense Mediterranean shrublands), revealing that the latter two had the highest selection values. Our methodological framework has already been operationally used by the Greek Forest Service branch of Kassandra to decide the most effective landscape fuel treatment allocation.

Coping with natural disasters: Political leadership framing of the 2018 wildfires in Greece

AbstractThe present study examines the discourse of the then Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, following the 2018 July wildfire disaster in the Eastern Attica suburbs including Mati to reveal the frames employed by the main protagonist utilizing existing framing models while also incorporating the notions of ethic of care and strategic ambiguity. The then government received extensive criticism by the media and political opponents in regard to the management and communication responses of the then Prime Minister. A content analysis was conducted to the statements made by the then Prime Minister. Findings indicate that Tsipras during the initial stages of the crisis acknowledged the extent of crisis while also emphasizing the successful crisis response efforts. Moreover, strategic ambiguity along with low levels of “caring” were important elements of Tsipras' narrative at the initial stage. As the public outrage and criticism intensified, Tsipras incorporated a more caring profile and presented the disaster as a “critical opportunity” by shifting the blame to previous governments and proposing policy changes.

Evacuation behavior of affected individuals and households in response to the 2018 Attica wildfires: From empirical data to models

The objective of this paper is to analyze the household response behavior of road users during community evacuations in response to the 2018 Attica wildfires in Greece. To achieve this objective, empirical data were obtained from a questionnaire survey completed by residents from the affected areas by the wildfires of the East Attica in 2018. The design of the survey questionnaire was guided by the Protective Action Decision Model – PADM. Logistic regression models and machine learning techniques such as random forests were developed to identify the critical factors influencing the decision to evacuate or not, as well as the mode choice during evacuation. Findings reveal that the perception of risk, age, years in residence, the number of adults up to 65 years of age in residence, the attempt to obtain information before evacuation, gender, the existence of a prior warning, the number of minors in residence, the level of education and income were the most critical factors to the decision to evacuate during the wildfire. Regarding the mode choice, the most critical factors were the existence of an available vehicle, age, the attempt to obtain information before the evacuation and the perception of risk.

Meteorological Analysis of the 2021 Extreme Wildfires in Greece: Lessons Learned and Implications for Early Warning of the Potential for Pyroconvection

The 2021 fire season in Greece was the worst of the past 13 years, resulting in more than 130,000 ha of burnt area, with about 70% consumed by five wildfires that ignited and spread in early August. Common to these wildfires was the occurrence of violent pyroconvection. This work presents a meteorological analysis of this outbreak of extreme pyroconvective wildfires. Our analysis shows that dry and warm antecedent weather preconditioned fuels in the fire-affected areas, creating a fire environment that alone could effectively support intense wildfire activity. Analysis of surface conditions revealed that the ignition and the most active spread of all wildfires coincided with the most adverse fire weather since the beginning of the fire season. Further, the atmospheric environment was conducive to violent pyroconvection, as atmospheric instability gradually increased amid the breakdown of an upper-air ridge ahead of an approaching long-wave trough. In summary, we highlight that the severity and extent of the 2021 Greek wildfires were not surprising considering the fire weather potential for the period when they ignited. Continuous monitoring of the large- and local-scale conditions that promote extreme fire behavior is imperative for improving Greece’s capacity for managing extreme wildfires.

Dead Fuel Moisture Content (DFMC) Estimation Using MODIS and Meteorological Data: The Case of Greece

The frequent occurrence of large and high-intensity wildfires in the Mediterranean region poses a major threat to people and the environment. In this context, the estimation of dead fine fuel moisture content (DFMC) has become an integrated part of wildfire management since it provides valuable information for the flammability status of the vegetation. This study investigates the effectiveness of a physically based fuel moisture model in estimating DFMC during severe fire events in Greece. Our analysis considers two approaches, the satellite-based (MODIS DFMC model) and the weather station-based (AWSs DFMC model) approach, using a fuel moisture model which is based on the relationship between the fuel moisture of the fine fuels and the water vapor pressure deficit (D). During the analysis we used weather station data and MODIS satellite data from fourteen wildfires in Greece. Due to the lack of field measurements, the models’ performance was assessed only in the case of the satellite data by using weather observations obtained from the network of automated weather stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). Results show that, in general, the satellite-based model achieved satisfactory accuracy in estimating the spatial distribution of the DFMC during the examined fire events. More specifically, the validation of the satellite-derived DFMC against the weather-station based DFMC indicated that, in all cases examined, the MODIS DFMC model tended to underestimate DFMC, with MBE ranging from −0.3% to −7.3%. Moreover, in all of the cases examined, apart from one (Sartis’ fire case, MAE: 8.2%), the MAE of the MODIS DFMC model was less than 2.2%. The remaining numerical results align with the existing literature, except for the MAE case of 8.2%. The good performance of the satellite based DFMC model indicates that the estimation of DFMC is feasible at various spatial scales in Greece. Presently, the main drawback of this approach is the occurrence of data gaps in the MODIS satellite imagery. The examination and comparison of the two approaches, regarding their operational use, indicates that the weather station-based approach meets the requirements for operational DFMC mapping to a higher degree compared to the satellite-based approach.

Socio-Ecological Perceptions of Wildfire Management and Effects in Greece

Adapting to the growing frequency of catastrophic wildfires in Greece and mitigating their effects is a complex socio-ecological problem. We used an online survey to query more than 100 engaged stakeholders who can potentially influence possible legislation and fire management organizational reform, emphasizing civil protection agencies and research entities. We focused the questionnaire on the importance of different wildfire effects to understand which were considered negative or unacceptable, indifferent, or positive. For fire prevention, we examined the range of acceptance and views on fuel management and fire use activities that are limited in extent or not allowed in Greece. We also examined the beliefs regarding ignition causes and responsibility, in addition to how different policies might reduce wildfire-related problems. The results revealed an emphasis on reforming wildfire management policies to deal with the way society and agencies function and interact, and mitigate the influence of climate change in wildfire frequency and behavior. In addition, respondents had a negative stance towards allowing wildfires to burn for resource objectives and a strong belief that arsonists are behind most ignitions. They also believe the lack of a national cadaster system is a major source of wildfire-related problems. The results indicate little support for fuel treatments, but increased acceptance for the legalization of fire use during firefighting (backfires). This study summarizes current wildfire perceptions in Greece and identifies opportunities and barriers to changes in wildfire governance to improve risk management programs and guide post-fire management and mitigation.

Observational Evidence of the Need for Gender-Sensitive Approaches to Wildfires Locally and Globally: Case Study of 2018 Wildfire in Mati, Greece

The study takes an equality justice perspective to compare resilience against the controlled management of wildfires, for an effective preparedness, which is a prerequisite for equitable mitigation. The objectives were (a) conceptualizing wildfire mitigation by exploring the ties with gender equality to wildfire hazards, (b) taking the case of wildfire 2018 in Mati, Greece, to contribute reducing the country’s gender inequality, and (c) increasing resilience to climate change hazards by considering lessons learnt. The authors underscore the benefits of a workshop-based and instrumental case study methodology for unravelling evidence on the need for gender-sensitive approaches and tools for future planning at local, regional, and global scales. The case study unravels women’s lack of preparedness to wildfires in Greece, their absence in decision-making for fire management, and the need for capacity building to transform communities’ resilience. The literature research and the specific interviews conducted helped bring awareness to the wildfire’s dynamics, in alignment with the fundamental aspect of gender equality, and to ground recommendations for socio-ecological resilience transition and gender-sensitive approaches in fire management, from reactive fire-fighting to proactive integration. Although in the geographical-context, the study can bring widespread geographical awareness, bringing insights for relevance to similar areas worldwide.

Forecasting fire risk with machine learning and dynamic information derived from satellite vegetation index time-series

Fire risk mapping – mapping the probability of fire occurrence and spread – is essential for pre-fire management as well as for efficient firefighting efforts. Most fire risk maps are generated using static information on variables such as topography, vegetation density, and fuel instantaneous wetness. Satellites are often used to provide such information. However, long-term vegetation dynamics and the cumulative dryness status of the woody vegetation, which may affect fire occurrence and spread, are rarely considered in fire risk mapping. Here, we investigate the impact of two satellite-derived metrics that represent long-term vegetation status and dynamics on fire risk mapping – the long-term mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of the woody vegetation (NDVIW) and its trend (NDVIT). NDVIW represents the mean woody density at the grid cell, while NDVIT is the 5-year trend of the woody NDVI representing the long-term dryness status of the vegetation. To produce these metrics, we decompose time-series of satellite-derived NDVI following a method adjusted for Mediterranean woodlands and forests. We tested whether these metrics improve fire risk mapping using three machine learning (ML) algorithms (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost). We chose the 2007 wildfires in Greece for the analysis. Our results indicate that XGBoost, which accounts for variable interactions and non-linear effects, was the ML model that produced the best results. NDVIW improved the model performance, while NDVIT was significant only when NDVIW was high. This NDVIW–NDVIT interaction means that the long-term dryness effect is meaningful only in places of dense woody vegetation. The proposed method can produce more accurate fire risk maps than conventional methods and can supply important dynamic information that may be used in fire behavior models.

What are the Factors affecting Tourist Behavior based on the Perception of Risk? Romanian and Serbian Tourists’ Perspective in the Aftermath of the recent Floods and Wildfires in Greece

During the summer season 2018 and 2019, natural hazards (namely, floods and wildfires) have occurred at some of the most popular tourist destinations in Greece, endangering tourists’ safety and vacation quality. These have influenced tourists’ perception of Greece as a “potentially risky destination”, causing a decrease in the number of tourists willing to visit this country. However, the current study assumes that some tourists will show more courageous travel behavior in the aftermath of natural hazards, while others will remain cautious when deciding to travel to risky destinations. Therefore, the questionnaire on a sample group of 431 respondents from Serbia and Romania was conducted to explore the factors influencing such differences. The study aims to explore whether tourists’ individual characteristics influence tourism worries and tourist behavior based on perceived risks. The study also intends to analyze the moderating role of tourists’ nationality, considering the relationship between personality and tourist behavior based on the perceived risk. The findings provide evidence that not only tourists’ personality but also sociodemographic characteristics influence tourism worries and tourist behavior based on the perceived risk. Additionally, the study is the first to explore and confirm the role of nationality in tourist behavior based on the perceived risk, as well as the moderation role of nationality in regression between tourist’s personality and behavior based on the perception of risk. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed in the paper.

Development of Comprehensive Fuel Management Strategies for Reducing Wildfire Risk in Greece

A solution to the growing problem of catastrophic wildfires in Greece will require a more holistic fuel management strategy that focuses more broadly on landscape fire behavior and risk in relation to suppression tactics and ignition prevention. Current fire protection planning is either non-existent or narrowly focused on reducing fuels in proximity to roads and communities where ignitions are most likely. A more effective strategy would expand the treatment footprint to landscape scales to reduce fire intensity and increase the likelihood of safe and efficient suppression activities. However, expanding fuels treatment programs on Greek landscapes that are highly fragmented in terms of land use and vegetation requires: (1) a better understanding of how diverse land cover types contribute to fire spread and intensity; and (2) case studies, both simulated and empirical, that demonstrate how landscape fuel management strategies can achieve desired outcomes in terms of fire behavior. In this study, we used Lesvos Island, Greece as a study area to characterize how different land cover types and land uses contribute to fire exposure and used wildfire simulation methods to understand how fire spreads among parcels of forests, developed areas, and other land cover types (shrublands, agricultural areas, and grasslands) as a way to identify fire source–sink relationships. We then simulated a spatially coordinated fuel management program that targeted the fire prone conifer forests that generally burn under the highest intensity. The treatment effects were measured in terms of post-treatment fire behavior and transmission. The results demonstrated an optimized method for fuel management planning that accounts for the connectivity of wildfire among different land types. The results also identified the scale of risk and the limitations of relying on small scattered fuel treatment units to manage long-term wildfire risk.

Midterm Fire Danger Prediction Using Satellite Imagery and Auxiliary Thematic Layers

Wildfires constitute a significant environmental pressure in Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean countries. The prediction of fire danger is essential for sustainable forest fire management since it provides critical information for designing effective prevention measures and for facilitating response planning to potential fire events. This study presents a new midterm fire danger index (MFDI) using satellite and auxiliary geographic data. The proposed methodology is based on estimations of a dry fuel connectivity measure calculated from the Moderate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) time-series data, which are combined with biophysical and topological variables to obtain accurate fire ignition danger predictions for the following eight days. The index’s accuracy was assessed using historical fire data from four large wildfires in Greece. The results showcase that the index predicted high fire danger (≥3 on a scale within [ 1 , 4 ] ) within the identified fire ignition areas, proving its strong potential for deriving reliable estimations of fire danger, despite the fact that no meteorological measurements or forecasts are used for its calculation.

Assessing Structural Damage after a Severe Wildfire: A Case Study

Wildfires have always been a threat to forests and areas of high combustible vegetation. When they are not kept under control, they can spread to residential areas, creating severe damage and destruction. This paper examines the effects of the extreme heat conditions that developed during a wildfire on buildings as a function of their construction type. One of the deadliest wildfires in Greece (July 2018) is considered as a case study, and the damage that occurred to buildings during this event is presented. The temperature of the various structural subsystems in extreme heat conditions was estimated using the finite element method. Parameters that influenced the corresponding temperature distribution were identified. Simple guidelines are given to prevent or reduce damage in buildings exposed to wildfires.

Post-fire recovery of Abies cephalonica forest communities: the case of Mt Parnitha National Park, Attica, Greece

Abstract: Mountain coniferous forests of Southern Europe seem to be increasingly affected by large fires. Endemic Greek fir (Abies cephalonica) forests were among the most affected ecosystems by the 2007 extreme wildfires in Greece. The aim of this study is to investigate the pattern of post-fire regeneration of fir forest plant communities of Mount Parnitha National Park, in Attica (Greece), after a large wildfire. A network of 8 severely burned sites across the mountain ridge was established in order to monitor natural regeneration of A. cephalonica as well as post-fire floristic composition and species richness. Field campaigns took place in two distinct time periods, one close to the fire event and one 8 to 10 years after. Generalized linear models were used to explore the effects of distance and microhabitat variables on the post-fire regeneration of the Greek fir. Distance from the unburned patches, slope and cover of woody species significantly affected A. cephalonica seedling establishment and hence its natural post-fire regeneration. Floristic composition and plant species richness of the recovering fir communities changed through time. During the initial phase, high species richness was recorded, mainly because of the high contribution of herbaceous species. During the second period, species richness was lower and similar to that recorded in the unburned fir communities. It is during this period when the first seedlings of the Greek fir managed to establish, although their density is rather low to ensure full recovery of the forest.

Using transboundary wildfire exposure assessments to improve fire management programs: a case study in Greece

Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land tenures. In addition, fires ignited within protected lands and community boundaries are major sources of structure exposure. Important cultural monuments in the study area had fairly low exposure but higher potential for fires with moderate to high intensity. The results show how the spatial diversity of vegetation and fuels, in combination with vegetation management practices on private and public tracts of land, contribute to transboundary risk. We use the results to motivate a discussion of integrating transboundary risk assessments to improve the current wildfire-risk rating system and begin the process of reforming risk governance in Greece.

Personality characteristics and individual factors associated with PTSD in firefighters one month after extended wildfires

Background: Firefighters participate in activities with intense physical and psychological stress and are constantly at risk to develop various psychopathological reactions.Aims: To investigate psychological reactions in firefighters one month after devastating wildfires in Greece, during August 2007, which lead to the devastation of large areas and the death of 43 people among whom three were firefighters.Methods: One month after the wildfires, a joint task force of mental health clinicians was organized in order to provide psychological support and to investigate the psychological consequences of wildfires to firefighters. One hundred and two firefighters, living within the fire-devastated area, who were on duty for the whole period of wildfires were interviewed and assessed with the use of several questionnaires and inventories.Results: Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was detected in 18.6% of firefighters. Multiple logistic regression found that existence of fear of dying during firefighting, insomnia and increased scores in neuroticism, as well as in depression subscale of the SCL-90, were significantly associated with greater likelihood for having PTSD. Additionally those firefighters who worked permanently had 70% lower probability of having PTSD vs. those seasonally employed.Conclusions: Insomnia, depressive symptoms, as well as personality characteristics as neuroticism and the perception of fear of imminent death during firefighting operations may precipitate the development of PTSD in firefighters. Within this context, mental health clinicians should be aware that the early detection of these predisposing factors may facilitate the prevention and mitigation of PTSD in firefighters particularly those who are seasonally employed.

A multidimensional statistical framework to explore seasonal profile, severity and land-use preferences of wildfires in a Mediterranean country

SUMMARY This study analyses spatio-temporal patterns of wildfires in Greece using a multidimensional statistical framework based on non-parametric correlations, principal component analysis, clustering and stepwise discriminant analysis. Specifically, we assess the frequency, seasonal profile, severity and land-use type of 135 178 wildfires which occurred between 2000–2012 in Greece, one of the countries most affected by fire in Europe. Our results show that both the number of fires and the average size of the area covered by fire show a specific seasonal pattern with a marked increase during the dry season. Principal component analysis identifies three dimensions linked with the main type of land-use affected by the fires: (i) medium and large fires primarily affected landscapes composed of forests, mixed woodlands/shrublands and croplands; (ii) small fires mainly affected fragmented landscapes, i.e. those with mosaics of different crops, market gardens and non-vegetated, abandoned or marginal areas; (ii...