Abstract
The frequent occurrence of large and high-intensity wildfires in the Mediterranean region poses a major threat to people and the environment. In this context, the estimation of dead fine fuel moisture content (DFMC) has become an integrated part of wildfire management since it provides valuable information for the flammability status of the vegetation. This study investigates the effectiveness of a physically based fuel moisture model in estimating DFMC during severe fire events in Greece. Our analysis considers two approaches, the satellite-based (MODIS DFMC model) and the weather station-based (AWSs DFMC model) approach, using a fuel moisture model which is based on the relationship between the fuel moisture of the fine fuels and the water vapor pressure deficit (D). During the analysis we used weather station data and MODIS satellite data from fourteen wildfires in Greece. Due to the lack of field measurements, the models’ performance was assessed only in the case of the satellite data by using weather observations obtained from the network of automated weather stations operated by the National Observatory of Athens (NOA). Results show that, in general, the satellite-based model achieved satisfactory accuracy in estimating the spatial distribution of the DFMC during the examined fire events. More specifically, the validation of the satellite-derived DFMC against the weather-station based DFMC indicated that, in all cases examined, the MODIS DFMC model tended to underestimate DFMC, with MBE ranging from −0.3% to −7.3%. Moreover, in all of the cases examined, apart from one (Sartis’ fire case, MAE: 8.2%), the MAE of the MODIS DFMC model was less than 2.2%. The remaining numerical results align with the existing literature, except for the MAE case of 8.2%. The good performance of the satellite based DFMC model indicates that the estimation of DFMC is feasible at various spatial scales in Greece. Presently, the main drawback of this approach is the occurrence of data gaps in the MODIS satellite imagery. The examination and comparison of the two approaches, regarding their operational use, indicates that the weather station-based approach meets the requirements for operational DFMC mapping to a higher degree compared to the satellite-based approach.
Highlights
Wildfires constitute an increasing threat in Europe, in Mediterranean countries [1]
land surface measurements (LST) products, which are mainly caused by the presence of clouds and wildfi
In a the results obtained from the study of the pilot areas at Kineta (Figures 4 and 5) and of the examined cases the majority of the bad quality pixels have been removed by t Mati (Figures 4 and 6)
Summary
Wildfires constitute an increasing threat in Europe, in Mediterranean countries [1]. In the southern Mediterranean countries, large-scale and more intense wildfires pose major threats to human lives and valuable economic resources [2]. Forest fires are estimated to affect more than four million square kilometers of land To minimize the destructive effects of the wildfires, governments are compelled to undertake fire prevention measures. A critical component of an effective wildfire prevention planning is the assessment of the wildfire risk [4,5,6]. Amongst the various parameters that influence fire danger the most relevant are the weather, fuels, and human factors [8]. A key factor in the operational fire danger assessments is the estimation of the Fuel Moisture
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