Midterm Fire Danger Prediction Using Satellite Imagery and Auxiliary Thematic Layers

Alexandra Stefanidou,Ioannis Z Gitas,Georgios Eftychidis,Dimitris Stavrakoudis

doi:10.3390/rs11232786

Alexandra Stefanidou, Ioannis Z Gitas + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11232786

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Abstract

Wildfires constitute a significant environmental pressure in Europe, particularly in the Mediterranean countries. The prediction of fire danger is essential for sustainable forest fire management since it provides critical information for designing effective prevention measures and for facilitating response planning to potential fire events. This study presents a new midterm fire danger index (MFDI) using satellite and auxiliary geographic data. The proposed methodology is based on estimations of a dry fuel connectivity measure calculated from the Moderate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) time-series data, which are combined with biophysical and topological variables to obtain accurate fire ignition danger predictions for the following eight days. The index’s accuracy was assessed using historical fire data from four large wildfires in Greece. The results showcase that the index predicted high fire danger (≥3 on a scale within [ 1 , 4 ] ) within the identified fire ignition areas, proving its strong potential for deriving reliable estimations of fire danger, despite the fact that no meteorological measurements or forecasts are used for its calculation.

Highlights

Forest fires are considered a rather complex natural process and one of the most crucial environmental issues in Europe [1], resulting in severe ecological, economic, and social consequences [2]
Portugal, Spain, France, Italy, and Greece accounted for 78% of the total burnt area and 84% of the total number of fires registered in Europe in the 2000–2013 period, according to Burned Areas Perimeters dataset of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) [4]
This study presents a new midterm fire danger index (MFDI) for a Euro-Mediterranean region (Greece), which is based on Earth Observation and ancillary geographic data and provides reliable estimations of fire ignition danger for a period of eight days ahead without using any meteorological data

Summary

Introduction

Forest fires are considered a rather complex natural process and one of the most crucial environmental issues in Europe [1], resulting in severe ecological, economic, and social consequences [2]. Reliable fire danger forecast constitutes one of the most significant components of integrated forest fire management [8] and it is highly dependent on a variety of factors affecting fire ignition and spread. These factors comprise meteorological variables, vegetation condition, topography, and human activities, which are utilized as inputs in existing fire behavior prediction systems (e.g., Fire Area Simulator—FARSITE, FlamMap, FS Pro) [8,9]. The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) [12], the National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) adopted in the USA [13], and the Australian McArthur rating systems [14] are some of the most widely used operational systems providing forecasts of potential fire ignition, behavior, and rate of spread [15,16]

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