Wider Economy Research Articles

What Drives House Price Cycles? International Experience and Policy Issues

The role of real estate during the global financial and economic crisis has prompted efforts to better incorporate housing and financial channels into macro models, improve housing models, develop macroprudential tools, and reform the financial system. This article provides an overview of major, recent contributions to the literature in relation to earlier research on what drives housing prices and how they affect economic activity. Particularly emphasized are studies, both theoretical and more strongly evidence-based, that connect housing markets with credit markets, house price expectations, financial stability, and the wider economy. The literature reveals much diversity in the international and regional behavior of house prices and the need to improve data tracking key housing supply and demand influences. Also reviewed are studies examining how monetary, macroprudential, and other policies affect house prices and access to housing. This survey is designed to help readers navigate the plethora of recent studies and understand the unsettled issues and avenues for further research. The findings should be of interest to policy makers concerned with financial stability as well as those dealing with the role of housing in the wider economy (JEL E32, E44, E63, G01, G21, R31).

Economic Impact of Mining through Linkages: A Case Study of 1980 and 2014 Production Linkages in Zimbabwe

The manner in which mining is linked to other sectors of the economy in production, the extent of those linkages, and the problems and constraints which limit the development of production linkages are critical questions in the context of optimizing the sector’s contribution to economic development in Zimbabwe. The primary objective of this study is to examine the extent of the production (upstream and downstream) linkages that the mining sector has created with the rest of the Zimbabwean economic sectors, their effect on the wider economy and how these linkages may be optimized. A mixed methodology is used comprising a quantitative analysis using the Leontief Input-Output model and secondary data to quantify the linkages for 1980, and a partial survey of mines and exploration companies. The results of the survey are used to update the key quantitative results to 2014 and to further explore qualitatively the nature of production linkages, and constraints and problems limiting their development. The study finds that downstream linkages were weak. There was insignificant beneficiation of minerals or other value-adding activities due to several constraints, among them, lack of support infrastructure and technical expertise, and huge financial requirements. Failure to maximize production of ‘development minerals’ was a contributory factor to low downstream linkages. Slightly significant direct and total upstream linkages existed with manufacturing, electricityand water, and transport and distribution sectors. The mining sector’s gross output multiplier was below but moderately comparable to those of other mining developing countries such as Chile. Upstream linkages were mainly constrained by lack of technical expertise and finance. Thus, overall production linkages were found to be weak. The paper makes several recommendations, among them, infrastructural development, increased primary production (for feed and market), larger expenditure on HRD and R&D, greater focus on development minerals and emphasis on incentives rather than penalties.

Offering undeclared workers financial help during Covid19 pandemic can bring them out of shadows into the declared economy

PurposeThe authors wanted to examine why undeclared workers had not received financial assistance in Europe during the pandemic and find the best way to help them and bring them out of the shadows.Design/methodology/approachTo identify those whose paid work is entirely undeclared, a Eurobarometer survey of undeclared work in Europe is reported conducted in September 2019, just prior to the pandemic, and involving 27,565 face-to-face interviews in 28 European countries.FindingsThe paid work of one in every 132 citizens in Europe comprises wholly of undeclared work and one in 28 work at least some of the time in the undeclared economy. These workers have received no support, but they are more likely to be financially vulnerable. A high percentage of undeclared workers are widowed, divorced and living in households with multiple persons.Originality/valueThe authors argue that short-term support for these individuals could not only help them to survive the pandemic financially, but also transform undeclared work into declared work with long-term benefits for individuals and the wider economy.

Mapping Melanoma with Google – A Record Breaking Summer and Insights into Public Awareness Using Google Trends

Introduction: UK melanoma incidence is continuing to rise, resulting in a growing economic burden to the NHS and wider economy. Public awareness campaigns have aimed to tackle this issue, yet the real-world impact on the UK population is poorly understood. Google Trends is a tool that identifies search interest patterns by keywords, incidence and geography. The study aim is to characterise UK and international search trends for skin cancer, tanning methods and sun protection. Methods: Google Trends was systematically searched using terms associated with artificial UV tanning, sun protection and skin lesions, including cancer. The searches compared the UK to Australia and the USA (2004-2018). Results: Search terms of artificial UV tanning (“sunbed”, “tanning bed” and “tanning salon”) peak annually during May, whereas the highest volume of searches for sun prophylaxis (“sun cream”, “sunscreen”, “sun protection”) and skin lesions (“mole”, “skin cancer”) occurs during June. Troughs appear from November to January. Australia and the USA’s sun protection searches occur before summer peaks. Conclusions: Skin cancer-related searches occur on a predictable cycle, peaking during summer and declining over winter. The UK interest in tanning peaks during late spring/early summer, not traditionally targeted for campaigning, whilst skin cancer searches peak mid-to-late summer. This is likely post-sun damage. Australians search for skin cancer advice in their spring, supporting their well-studied culture of skin cancer awareness. These lessons can inform UK health policy. Google Trends is useful for characterising search interest, which may reflect public awareness.

Jointly Modelling Economics and Epidemiology to Support Public Policy Decisions for the COVID-19 Response: A Review of UK Studies.

COVID-19 in the UK has had a profound impact on population health and other socially important outcomes, including on education and the economy. Although a range of evidence has guided policy, epidemiological models have been central. It is less clear whether models to support decision making have sought to integrate COVID-19 epidemiology with a consideration of broader health, wellbeing and economic implications. We report on a rapid review of studies seeking to integrate epidemiological and economic modelling to assess the impacts of alternative policies. Overall, our results suggest that few studies have explored broader impacts of different COVID-19 policies in the UK. Three studies looked only at health, capturing impacts on individuals with and without COVID-19, with various methods used to model the latter. Four models considered health and wider impacts on individuals’ economic outcomes, such as wages. However, these models made no attempt to consider the dynamic impacts on economic outcomes of others and the wider economy. The most complex analyses sought to link epidemiological and dynamic economic models. Studies compared a wide range of policies, although most were defined in general terms with minimal consideration of their granular specifications. There was minimal exploration of uncertainty, with no consideration in half the studies. Selecting appropriate models to inform decisions requires careful thought of factors relevant to the decision options under consideration such as the outcomes of interest, sectors likely to be impacted and causal pathways. In summary, better linking epidemiological and economic modelling would help to inform COVID-19 policy.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40273-021-01045-2.

Optimal Control Strategy of Platform Load Oriented to Network and Load Cooperation

In recent years, with the continuous growth of China’s power peak load and the rapid development of renewable energy, a large number of renewable energy sources are connected to the power grid, increasing the uncertainty of power grid operation and posing new major challenges to the power system regulation capacity. Flexible load has the characteristics of wide distribution, fast response, and high economy, which is an important control resource for the future power system. Based on the flexible load of commercial buildings and residential users, this paper studies the resource characteristics and response characteristics, clarifies the resource characteristics and demand response characteristic indexes of commercial and residential users, and establishes the response characteristics model of commercial buildings and residential users. Considering the influence of weather, holidays, incentive mechanism, and other factors on the response of flexible load, the quantitative analysis method of flexible load resource regulation potential for regional power grid dispatching was studied, and the feasibility of flexible load resources directly participating in the load control system was analyzed. Based on the uncertainty and mathematical characterization method of the active response of flexible loads, the optimal combination control strategy of demand response resources was proposed to eliminate the problems of heavy load and overload of regional power grid equipment by using the active response ability of flexible loads. Finally, the IEEE 14-node system is selected for simulation verification, which provides a theoretical basis for alleviating the power grid operation pressure in the peak load period of the power grid in the urban core area, improving the safety and economic operation level of regional power grid dispatching and the utilization rate of power grid equipment assets.

Artistic households: the economics of creative work in seventeenth-century London

Abstract This article offers new insights into women’s occupational identities and the production of art in seventeenth-century London. The identification of a previously overlooked portraitist named Anne Wemyss (1633–98) shows that she was part of a much wider circle of artists and elite patrons active during this period. An exploration of the training afforded to a number of female Painter-Stainers’ Company apprentices that were connected to artistic households, followed by a micro-historical study of the gender division of labour in Mary Beale’s household studio, further credits women’s creative work in the wider economy.

Visible‐Light‐Promoted Oxy‐difluoroalkylation of Aryl Alkynes for the Synthesis of β‐Fluoroenones and α‐Difluoroalkyl Ketones

AbstractA method for the selective synthesis of (E)‐β‐fluoroenones and α‐difluoroalkyl ketones have been achieved. By employing water as oxygen source, potassium carbonate as base, tetrasubstituted β‐fluoroenones could be regio‐ and stereoselectively synthesized by oxy‐difluoroalkylation of alkynes under visible light irradiated with moderate to good yields. α‐Difluoroalkyl ketones could be obtained while using phenylpyridine as base. This transformation features mild condition, wide functional tolerance and step economy. The large‐scale transformations and further derivatization show its potential application in organic synthesis.magnified image

The economic cost of bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder: a population-based study.

The most common eating disorders (EDs) are bulimia nervosa (BN) and binge eating disorder (BED), serious psychiatric illnesses that have devastating effects on the physical and psychological wellbeing of sufferers. EDs range in complexity and severity but can be life-threatening without appropriate treatment. Although it is well-known that quality of life impacts is high for ED sufferers, research regarding fiscal and related costs is severely limited. The aim of this study was to understand economic and other costs of EDs at the community level. Data were derived from 2017 household community representative structured interview of 2977 people aged ⩾ 15 years in South Australia. ED diagnoses, health systems, productivity, transaction, out-of-pocket expenses and other related costs of BN and BED were used to estimate the economic burden of EDs in South Australia. The annual total economic cost of EDs in 2018 was estimated at $84 billion for South Australia. This included $81 billion from the burden of disease as the result of years lived with disability (YLD) ($62 billion) and years of life lost ($19 billion). The health system costs, productivity and tax revenue loss to the Australian economy were estimated at $1 billion, $1.6 billion and $0.6 billion, respectively. The YLD average cost in 2018 in South Australia was $296 649 per person. This is two-thirds of the costs borne by individuals and the wider economy. Prevention and management initiatives for EDs need to take into account these costs when assessing their potential benefits.

Predicting Firms’ Financial Distress: An Empirical Analysis Using the F-Score Model

Financial performance of firms is very important to bankers, shareholders, potential investors, and creditors. The inability of firms to meet their liabilities will affect all its stakeholders and will result in negative consequences in the wider economy. The objective of the study is to explore the applicability of a distress prediction model which uses the F-Score and its components to identify firms which are at high risk of going into default. The study incorporates a prediction model and vast literature to address the research questions. The sample of the study is collected from publicly listed firms of the United States. In total, 81 financially distressed firms wereextracted from the UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database during 2009–2017. This study found that the relationship of the F-Score and probability of firms going into financial distress is significant. This study also demonstrated that firms which are at risk of distress tend to record a negative cash flow from operations (CFO) and showed a greater decline in return on assets (ROA) in the year prior to default. This study extends the existing literature by supporting a model which has not been widely used in the area of financial distress predictions.

Country Note: Taxing The Income Of Digital Non-Resident Companies Under The ‘Significant Economic Presence’ (Sep) Rules In Nigeria

The digital economy poses challenges to the traditional international corporate tax rules. Contrary to ‘source rules,’ digital multinational companies (MNCs) – such as Facebook, Netflix, Yahoo, Google, Amazon, etc. – can avoid tax from source/market countries where value is created because they have no permanent establishment (PE) in such countries. This position is damaging to developing countries, including Nigeria, that rely heavily on taxes on revenue sourced within their jurisdictions. Therefore, in January 2020, Nigeria responded by amending its corporate tax rules to introduce the ‘significant economic presence’ (SEP) as an additional basis for taxing digital non-resident companies (NRCs) with Nigerian sourced income. This amendment follows attempts at reforming international tax rules by the United Nations (UN), European Union (EU), and G20/ Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The G20/OECD’s Action 1 of the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Project and the Inclusive Framework for BEPS seek to provide policy suggestions for aligning the place of taxation with that of ‘value creation’. However, while all countries within the Inclusive Framework are presumed to be operating on equal footing, policy discussions have revealed a well-known problem: the role of international tax principles in the perpetuation of imbalances in the international allocation of taxing rights among states. Against this background, this article will examine the scope of the SEP and its suitability, workability, and sustainability for taxing digital NRCs in Nigeria, review judicial decisions on taxation of digital NRCs, and analyse the enforcement challenges of the SEP in the context of Nigeria’s digital and wider economy. Significant economic presence, digital taxation, value creation, permanent estabilishment, allocation of taxing rights, BEPS, UN, EU, G20/OECD, Nigeria.

Do museums foster innovation through engagement with the cultural and creative industries?

The recent narrative on museums as catalysts of innovation and growth considers their relations with other cultural and creative industries (CCIs) to be very important. We argue that most relations museums establish with CCI firms and institutions are unlikely to produce strong positive externalities that make the latter more innovative. To prove this claim, we propose a conceptual framework qualifying project-based and supply chain relations between museums and CCIs as either strong, moderate, or weak links, according to their potential in terms of knowledge spillovers from museums to CCIs. We apply this taxonomy to data collected from 261 Polish museums. Our findings indicate that strong links are outnumbered by moderate and weak ones. We then suggest that the traditional missions of museums, in particular education and conservation, need to be more thoroughly assessed in terms of their direct and indirect contributions in order to fully capture the impact of museums on innovation in the wider economy.

Conceptualising household food insecurity in Northern Ireland: risk factors, implications for society and the economy, and recommendations for business and policy response

Household food insecurity in developed nations has been identified as a significant public health concern. Although various research on the topic exists, such as contributors to food insecurity, and implications for individual physical and mental health outcomes; there is currently a lack of consideration as to how individual implications of food insecurity such as poor physical and mental health can consequently impact on business and the wider economy. In addition, there is a lack of conceptual literature related to food insecurity. Stakeholder interviews (n = 19) were conducted, and data were used to inform the conceptual model (risk factors, potential implications for individuals, the economy and business, and opportunities for business and policy response). The main suggested implications related to business and the economy were reduced contribution to the workforce and the economy, and increased cost pressures on the National Health Service. Business responses suggested included the inclusion of initiatives to address food insecurity in corporate social responsibility strategies, and further involvement of food businesses/retailers in redistributing surplus food. Policy responses suggested included policies relating to welfare, wages and work contracts, food redistribution incentives, sustainability, and community interventions in disadvantaged areas. The resulting model is unique in conceptualising food insecurity in the Northern Ireland context, with applicability to the UK and other developed nations.

The association between mental-physical multimorbidity and disability, work productivity, and social participation in China: a panel data analysis

BackgroundThe co-occurrence of mental and physical chronic conditions (mental-physical multimorbidity) is a growing and largely unaddressed challenge for health systems and wider economies in low-and middle-income countries. This study investigated the independent and combined (additive or synergistic) effects of mental and physical chronic conditions on disability, work productivity, and social participation in China.MethodsPanel data study design utilised two waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011, 2015), including 5616 participants aged ≥45 years, 12 physical chronic conditions and depression. We used a panel data approach of random-effects regression models to assess the relationships between mental-physical multimorbidity and outcomes.ResultsAfter adjusting for socio-economic and demographic factors, an increased number of physical chronic conditions was independently associated with a higher likelihood of disability (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.33, 1.45), early retirement (AOR = 1.37 [1.26, 1.49]) and increased sick leave days (1.25 days [1.16, 1.35]). Depression was independently associated with disability (AOR = 3.78 [3.30, 4.34]), increased sick leave days (2.18 days [1.72, 2.77]) and a lower likelihood of social participation (AOR = 0.57 [0.47, 0.70]), but not with early retirement (AOR = 1.24 [0.97, 1.58]). There were small and statistically insignificant interactions between physical chronic conditions and mental health on disability, work productivity and social participation, suggesting an additive effect of mental-physical multimorbidity on productivity loss.ConclusionMental-physical multimorbidity poses substantial negative health and economic effects on individuals, health systems, and societies. More research that addresses the challenges of mental-physical multimorbidity is needed to inform the development of interventions that can be applied to the workplace and the wider community in China.

Role of Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utilization to Enable a Net-Zero-CO2-Emissions Aviation Sector

A techno-economic analysis of viable scenarios for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions is presented. These scenarios are based (i) on carbon capture and storage (CCS), where conventional fossil jet fuel is produced, and the corresponding emissions are offset by capturing CO2, either via direct air capture (DAC-CCS route) or via point-source capture (PSC-CCS route), and permanently storing it underground, and (ii) on carbon capture and utilization (CCU), where synthetic jet fuel is produced by using CO2 as feedstock, which is either captured from air (DAC-CCU route) or from a point-source emitter (PSC-CCU route). All routes are feasible and have their advantages and shortcomings. To ensure net-zero CO2 emissions, the feedstock of the point-source emitter, both for CCS- and CCU-based routes, must be of biogenic nature. A quantitative assessment of these scenarios and of a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where aviation emissions are subjected to a carbon tax, is performed based on jet fuel cost and carbon price projections until 2050. Cost reductions due to wide deployment and economy of scale of current low-maturity technologies are accounted for. Parametric and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the effects of uncertainty associated with the most relevant techno-economic quantities on the observed trends. Findings show that CCS-based scenarios consistently lead to lower jet fuel costs than CCU-based scenarios across the considered time scenarios and sensitivity analyses. This is mainly due to the fact that CCU-based routes result in an energy consumption more than 20 times higher than CCS-based routes, which also implies higher CO2 emissions when considering the carbon intensity of current electricity grids. Overall, the PSC-CCS route represents the most cost-effective solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry, and it is cost-competitive with BAU already today.

COVID-19 Outbreak, Impact on Sri Lankan Economy

We all have been affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 is the ongoing menace to the all over the World, labeled as pandemic and worst economic shock in recent history. The Corona virus pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time. The pandemic is moving like a wave. But COVID-19 is much more than a health crisis, by stressing every one of countries it touches, it has the potential to create devastating social, economic and political crisis that will leave deep scars. COVID-19 initial impact on Chinas economy and Chinas consequent slowdown may have adverse economic impact on the rest of the world as well. Sri Lankan economy mainly depends on the foreign trade. China is the one of the major country linked with Sri Lankan tourism, investment and many agreements. It is the second largest source market for Sri Lanka in terms of tourism and imports and the main supplier of raw materials for textiles also. Therefore COVID-19 in China has been caused a significant impact on Sri Lankan economy. This article examines the impact of COVID-19 on the Sri Lankan economy, tourism, Apparel and Textiles, Poverty and Financial Market.Apparels, Sri Lanka major merchandise export, faced disruptions with earnings from textiles and garments falling by 27.6% in 2020. The tourism industry has collapsed, business are finding it more difficult to operate due to the impacts of the curfew. Demand for the tourism is dropped now. There is a real risk that COVID-19 will set back the Sri Lankan economy and cause higher unemployment, poverty and deprivation. There is considerable amount of Sri Lankan employers have been terminated in Middle East countries. The events and activities related to production and employment of most of small and medium enterprises are significantly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. The outbreak of COVID-19 and the impact on the wider economy has placed unprecedented pressure on Sri Lanka business. Therefore, proactive policy measures should be undertaken to mitigate the economic slowdown in Sri Lanka.

Auditing and controlling as a tool for sme marketing risk management

The current hyper-competitive environment, rapid marketing tools, and modern techniques provide many opportunities for small and medium-sized businesses. Such opportunities could bring much in the way of rewards both for the individual companies and the wider economy. However, there are many threats associated with these business environments which cannot be overlooked. Small and medium-sized businesses are a significant stabilizing economic power within the European Union. Therefore, it is not surprising that small and medium-sized businesses competitiveness and their long-term stability are vital factors for European cohesion and development. This research aims to analyze risk management within small and medium-sized businesses, identify critical risk factors, and develop risk management, which could be applied to small and medium-sized businesses. The authors analyzed risk management's consequences and explained the variables as follows: ROA, Auditing, Controlling Management, Marketing, and Corporate Culture. Based on the research findings, the goal was to increase their interaction effectiveness, focusing on small and medium-sized businesses long-term stability and competitiveness. For achieving these aims, the paper provides two research questions and designs three hypotheses. This research was conducted from 2017 to 2020 on sample n = 432 EU small and medium-sized businesses. The reached data were analyzed by statistical method and experimental «in practice» testing. Based on the result and its experimental testing, a marketing risk management model was designed, tested, and verified using practical methods. This model could be used for the identification and avoidance of potential risks when developing a marketing strategy. The findings reached should be used to advance research and similarly for practical use within the business sphere.

Calculation of new enteric methane emission factors for small ruminants in western Kenya highlights the heterogeneity of smallholder production systems

Context African livestock play a critical role in food security and the wider economy, while accounting for >70% of African agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Accurate estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock are required for inventory purposes and to assess the efficacy of mitigation measures. While there is an increasing number of studies assessing methane (CH4) emissions of cattle, little attention has been paid to small ruminants (SR). Aims Enteric CH4 emissions were assessed from 1345 SR in three counties of western Kenya to develop more accurate emission factors (EF) for enteric CH4 from sheep and goats. Methods Using on-farm animal activity data, feed samples were also analysed to produce estimates of feed digestibility by season and region. The combined data were also used to estimate daily CH4 production by season, location and class of animal to produce new EF for annual enteric CH4 production of SR. Key results Mean dry-matter digestibility of the feed basket was in the range of 58–64%, depending on region and season (~10% greater than Tier I estimates). EF were similar for sheep (4.4 vs 5 kg CH4/year), but lower for goats (3.7 vs 5 kg CH4/year) than those given for SR in developing countries in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Tier I) estimates. Conclusions Published estimates of EF for SR range widely across Africa. In smallholder systems in western Kenya, SR appear to be managed differently from cattle, and EF appear to be driven by different management considerations. Implications The findings highlighted the heterogenous nature of SR enteric emissions in East Africa, but also suggested that emissions from SR are quantitatively less important than other estimates suggest compared with cattle.

Regulating Restrictive Covenants in English Employment Law: Time for a Rethink?

The potentially chilling effects of non-compete covenants on the ambitions and capacities of former employees to forge careers as commercial entrepreneurs have been propelled to the forefront of public debate in recent years. For example, in the US, reports in the press of rank and file employees working in sandwich bars being restrained by post-employment restrictions have sparked outrage. Nor has public debate in the UK been immune to such concerns. For example, the British Government has issued a call for evidence and a separate consultation paper on the future of non-compete covenants. The emphasis in these papers has been on versing the possible adverse consequences of non-compete covenants for the public good, the wider economy and social policy. Taking these ideas in the Government’s work as its point of departure, the concepts of the public interest and economic power are evoked in this article. Ultimately, the claim is made that in deciding whether to enforce non-compete covenants, the courts should afford greater significance to the public interest in the current incarnation of the common law restraint of trade doctrine. And this calls for a much livelier sense of the economic power that such covenants enable employers to exploit in the labour market, as well as the resultant social costs imposed on the public, consumers and society.

The effect of Ti3AlC2 MAX phase synthetic history on the structure and electrochemical properties of resultant Ti3C2 MXenes

The synthesis of MXenes is a lively area of research in today’s materials science community. Pure carbide and nitride samples with tunable properties and crystal size are desirable for the implementation of these promising young materials in the wider economy. Herein, the preparation of Ti3AlC2 MAX phase has been studied with a view to improving the quality and purity of the resultant Ti3C2 MXene. Room-temperature high-energy ball milling is exploited for the mechanical activation of elemental powder mixtures, which, along with adjusted input stoichiometry and heat treatment, achieves high-purity and highly crystalline Ti3AlC2 and Ti3C2 with rather quick and easy methodology. Several approaches are offered, as not all of these preparation steps are strictly necessary for acquiring MXene. The structure and properties of Ti3C2 are shown to depend on the preparation history and precursor characteristics. The MXene is additionally shown to perform well as a substrate for binder-free electrochemical cell electrodes; high electrical conductivity and cycling stability render this MXene@Zn anode a viable option for aqueous Zn-ion systems.