Wheat Yield Potential Research Articles

Wheat traits and the associated loci conferring radiation use efficiency.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) radiation use efficiency (RUE) must be raised through crop breeding to further increase the yield potential, as the harvest index is now close to its theoretical limit. Field experiments including 209 wheat cultivars which have been widely cultivated in China since the 1940s were conducted in two growing seasons (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) to evaluate the variations of phenological, physiological, plant architectural, and yield-related traits and their contributions to RUE and to identify limiting factors for wheat yield potential. The average annual genetic gain in grain yield was 0.60% (or 45.32 kg ha-1 year-1 ; R2 = 0.44, P < 0.01), mainly attributed to the gain in RUE (r = 0.85, P < 0.01). The net photosynthetic rates were positively and closely correlated with grain RUE and grain yield, suggesting source as a limiting factor to future yield gains. Thirty-four cultivars were identified, exhibiting not only high RUE, but also traits contributing to high RUE and 11 other critical traits - of known genetic basis - as potential parents for breeding to improve yield and RUE. Our findings reveal wheat traits and the associated loci conferring RUE, which are valuable for facilitating marker-assisted breeding to improve wheat RUE and yield potential.

Wheat yield potential can be maximized by increasing red to far-red light conditions at critical developmental stages.

Sensing of neighbours via the Red to Far-Red light ratio (R:FR) may exert a cap to yield potential in wheat. The effects of an increased R:FR inside the canopy were studied in dense wheat mini canopies grown in controlled environments by lowering FR. To distinguish between effects exerted by light sensing and assimilate supply, the treatments were complemented with elevated CO2 , applied between different developmental timepoints to specifically impact tillering, spike growth, floret fertility and grain filling, in different combinations. The yield response to high R:FR was strongly dependent on the developmental stage in all three cultivars and pivoted between positive if applied after the start of stem elongation, and negative or null if applied before. Yield gains of up to 70% and 120% were observed, respectively, in two cultivars, associated with a higher number of tiller spikes and grains per spike in the main shoot. The response to the combination of high R:FR and elevated CO2 or CO2 alone were cultivar dependent. Taken together, our results suggest that R:FR exerts a significant control on yield potential in wheat and achieving a high R:FR from stem elongation to maturity is a promising lever towards a significant increase in grain yield.

Heat Stress Tolerance 2 confers basal heat stress tolerance in allohexaploid wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

Heat stress substantially reduces the yield potential of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), one of the most widely cultivated staple crops, and greatly threatens global food security in the context of global warming. However, few studies have explored the heat stress tolerance (HST)-related genetic resources in wheat. Here, we identified and fine-mapped a wheat HST locus, TaHST2, which is indispensable for HST in both the vegetative and reproductive stages of the wheat life cycle. The studied pair of near isogenic lines (NILs) exhibited diverse morphologies under heat stress, based on which we mapped TaHST2 to a 485 kb interval on chromosome arm 4DS. Under heat stress, TaHST2 confers a superior conversion rate from soluble sugars to starch in wheat grains, resulting in faster grain filling and a higher yield potential. A further exploration of genetic resources indicated that TaHST2 underwent strong artificial selection during wheat domestication, suggesting it is an essential locus for basal HST in wheat. Our findings provide deeper insights into the genetic basis of wheat HST and might be useful for global efforts to breed heat-stress-tolerant cultivars.

A wiring diagram to integrate physiological traits of wheat yield potential.

As crop yields are pushed closer to biophysical limits, achieving yield gains becomes increasingly challenging and will require more insight into deterministic pathways to yields. Here, we propose a wiring diagram as a platform to illustrate the interrelationships of the physiological traits that impact wheat yield potential and to serve as a decision support tool for crop scientists. The wiring diagram is based on the premise that crop yield is a function of photosynthesis (source), the investment of assimilates into reproductive organs (sinks) and the underlying processes that enable expression of both. By illustrating these linkages as coded wires, the wiring diagram can show connections among traits that may not have been apparent, and can inform new research hypotheses and guide crosses designed to accumulate beneficial traits and alleles in breeding. The wiring diagram can also serve to create an ever-richer common point of reference for refining crop models in the future.

Phenological optimization of late reproductive phase for raising wheat yield potential in irrigated mega-environments.

Increasing grain number through fine-tuning duration of the late reproductive phase (LRP; terminal spikelet to anthesis) without altering anthesis time has been proposed as a genetic strategy to increase yield potential (YP) of wheat. Here we conducted a modelling analysis to evaluate the potential of fine-tuning LRP in raising YP in irrigated mega-environments. Using the known optimal anthesis and sowing date of current elite benchmark genotypes, we applied a gene-based phenology model for long-term simulations of phenological stages and yield-related variables of all potential germplasm with the same duration to anthesis as the benchmark genotypes. These diverse genotypes had the same duration to anthesis but varying LRP duration. Lengthening LRP increased YP and harvest index by increasing grain number to some extent and an excessively long LRP reduced YP due to reduced time for canopy construction for high biomass production of pre-anthesis phase. The current elite genotypes could have their LRP extended for higher YP in most sites. Genotypes with a ratio of the duration of LRP to pre-anthesis phase of about 0.42 ensured high yields (≥95% of YP) with their optimal sowing and anthesis dates. Optimization of intermediate growth stages could be further evaluated in breeding programmes to improve YP.

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Photosynthetic Energy Conversion Efficiency of Field Grown Wheat.

Improving canopy photosynthetic light use efficiency and energy conversion efficiency (εc) is a major option to increase crop yield potential. However, so far, the diurnal and seasonal variations of canopy light use efficiency (LUE) and εc are largely unknown due to the lack of an efficient method to estimate εc in a high temporal resolution. Here we quantified the dynamic changes of crop canopy LUE and εc during a day and a growing season with the canopy gas exchange method. A response curve of whole-plant carbon dioxide (CO2) flux to incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was further used to calculate εc and LUE at a high temporal resolution. Results show that the LUE of two wheat cultivars with different canopy architectures at five stages varies between 0.01 to about 0.05 mol CO2 mol–1 photon, with the LUE being higher under medium PAR. Throughout the growing season, the εc varies from 0.5 to 3.7% (11–80% of the maximal εc for C3 plants) with incident PAR identified as a major factor controlling variation of εc. The estimated average εc from tillering to grain filling stages was about 2.17%, i.e., 47.2% of the theoretical maximal. The estimated season-averaged radiation use efficiency (RUE) was 1.5–1.7 g MJ–1, which was similar to the estimated RUE based on biomass harvesting. The large variations of LUE and εc imply a great opportunity to improve canopy photosynthesis for greater wheat biomass and yield potential.

Genome-Wide Association Study and Post-genome-Wide Association Study Analysis for Spike Fertility and Yield Related Traits in Bread Wheat.

Spike fertility and associated traits are key factors in deciding the grain yield potential of wheat. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) interwoven with advanced post-GWAS analysis such as a genotype-phenotype network (geno-pheno network) for spike fertility, grain yield, and associated traits allow to identify of novel genomic regions and represents attractive targets for future marker-assisted wheat improvement programs. In this study, GWAS was performed on 200 diverse wheat genotypes using Breeders’ 35K Axiom array that led to the identification of 255 significant marker-trait associations (MTAs) (–log10P ≥ 3) for 15 metric traits phenotyped over three consecutive years. MTAs detected on chromosomes 3A, 3D, 5B, and 6A were most promising for spike fertility, grain yield, and associated traits. Furthermore, the geno-pheno network prioritised 11 significant MTAs that can be utilised as a minimal marker system for improving spike fertility and yield traits. In total, 119 MTAs were linked to 81 candidate genes encoding different types of functional proteins involved in various key pathways that affect the studied traits either way. Twenty-two novel loci were identified in present GWAS, twelve of which overlapped by candidate genes. These results were further validated by the gene expression analysis, Knetminer, and protein modelling. MTAs identified from this study hold promise for improving yield and related traits in wheat for continued genetic gain and in rapidly evolving artificial intelligence (AI) tools to apply in the breeding program.

Major Genomic Regions for Wheat Grain Weight as Revealed by QTL Linkage Mapping and Meta-Analysis.

Grain weight is a key determinant for grain yield potential in wheat, which is highly governed by a type of quantitative genetic basis. The identification of major quantitative trait locus (QTL) and functional genes are urgently required for molecular improvements in wheat grain yield. In this study, major genomic regions and putative candidate genes for thousand grain weight (TGW) were revealed by integrative approaches with QTL linkage mapping, meta-analysis and transcriptome evaluation. Forty-five TGW QTLs were detected using a set of recombinant inbred lines, explaining 1.76-12.87% of the phenotypic variation. Of these, ten stable QTLs were identified across more than four environments. Meta-QTL (MQTL) analysis were performed on 394 initial TGW QTLs available from previous studies and the present study, where 274 loci were finally refined into 67 MQTLs. The average confidence interval of these MQTLs was 3.73-fold less than that of initial QTLs. A total of 134 putative candidate genes were mined within MQTL regions by combined analysis of transcriptomic and omics data. Some key putative candidate genes similar to those reported early for grain development and grain weight formation were further discussed. This finding will provide a better understanding of the genetic determinants of TGW and will be useful for marker-assisted selection of high yield in wheat breeding.

Productivity and profitability with fallow replacement forage, grain, and cover crops in W‐S‐F rotation

AbstractAdoption of cover crops is greatly dependent on their effect on the productivity of the main crops and profitability of system. The objective of this study was to quantify effects of spring fallow replacement grain, forage, and cover crops on winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) productivity and overall net return. This field study was conducted from 2013 through 2020 near Garden City, KS. Three phases of the wheat–sorghum–fallow (W‐S‐F) rotation were the main plots, and fallow and fallow replacement grain, forage, or cover crops were subplot treatments. Available soil water at planting (ASWP) of wheat was 58 to 81% less following forage and grain oat (Avena sativa L.) and triticale and ASWP of sorghum was 29% less following spring oat grain than fallow. Spring crops did not affect average wheat and sorghum yield, water use, or water productivity compared with fallow; likely because winter wheat yield potential over the study period was &lt;1,700 or &gt;3,500 kg ha−1. Fallow replacement crops increased cost of production by 16 to 97% compared with fallow, and costs were greater for forage and grain crops than cover crops. However, gross returns of forage crops were greater than cover crops or grain crops. Net return was greatest for triticale forage than spring pea (Pisum sativum L.) grain. We concluded no significant effect of spring fallow replacements on wheat and sorghum yield, but greater net return from spring triticale forage because of greater forage productivity and low seed cost.

Over-Optimistic Projected Future Wheat Yield Potential in the North China Plain: The Role of Future Climate Extremes

Global warming and altered precipitation patterns pose a serious threat to crop production in the North China Plain (NCP). Quantifying the frequency of adverse climate events (e.g., frost, heat and drought) under future climates and assessing how those climatic extreme events would affect yield are important to effectively inform and make science-based adaptation options for agriculture in a changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during sensitive phenological stages at four representative sites in the NCP using the APSIM-wheat model. climate data included historical and future climates, the latter being informed by projections from 22 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for the period 2031–2060 (2050s). Our results show that current projections of future wheat yield potential in the North China Plain may be overestimated; after more accurately accounting for the effects of frost and heat stress in the model, yield projections for 2031-60 decreased from 31% to 9%. Clustering of common drought-stress seasonal patterns into key groups revealed that moderate drought stress environments are likely to be alleviated in the future, although the frequency of severe drought-stress environments would remain similar (25%) to that occurring under the current climate. We highlight the importance of mechanistically accounting for temperature stress on crop physiology, enabling more robust projections of crop yields under future the burgeoning climate crisis.

Genome-wide superior alleles, haplotypes and candidate genes associated with tolerance on sodic-dispersive soils in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Key messageThe pleiotropic SNPs/haplotypes, overlapping genes (metal ion binding, photosynthesis), and homozygous/biallelic SNPs and transcription factors (HTH myb-type and BHLH) hold great potential for improving wheat yield potential on sodic-dispersive soils.Sodic-dispersive soils have multiple subsoil constraints including poor soil structure, alkaline pH and subsoil toxic elemental ion concentration, affecting growth and development in wheat. Tolerance is required at all developmental stages to enhance wheat yield potential on such soils. An in-depth investigation of genome-wide associations was conducted using a field phenotypic data of 206 diverse Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy (FIGS) wheat lines for two consecutive years from different sodic and non-sodic plots and the exome targeted genotyping by sequencing (tGBS) assay. A total of 39 quantitative trait SNPs (QTSs), including 18 haplotypes were identified on chromosome 1A, 1B, 1D, 2A, 2B, 2D, 3A, 3B, 5A, 5D, 6B, 7A, 7B, 7D for yield and yield-components tolerance. Among these, three QTSs had common associations for multiple traits, indicating pleiotropism and four QTSs had close associations for multiple traits, within 32.38 Mb. The overlapping metal ion binding (Mn, Ca, Zn and Al) and photosynthesis genes and transcription factors (PHD-, Dof-, HTH myb-, BHLH-, PDZ_6-domain) identified are known to be highly regulated during germination, maximum stem elongation, anthesis, and grain development stages. The homozygous/biallelic SNPs having allele frequency above 30% were identified for yield and crop establishment/plants m−2. These SNPs correspond to HTH myb-type and BHLH transcription factors, brassinosteroid signalling pathway, kinase activity, ATP and chitin binding activity. These resources are valuable in haplotype-based breeding and genome editing to improve yield potential on sodic-dispersive soils.

Genetic Yield Gains and Changes in Morphophysiological-Related Traits of Winter Wheat in Southern Chilean High-Yielding Environments.

Both the temperate-humid zone and the southern part of the Mediterranean climate region of Chile are characterized by high wheat productivity. Study objectives were to analyze the yield potential, yield progress, and genetic progress of the winter bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars and changes in agronomic and morphophysiological traits during the past 60 years. Thus, two field experiments: (a) yield potential and (b) yield genetic progress trials were conducted in high-yielding environments of central-southern Chile during the 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 seasons. In addition, yield progress was analyzed using yield historical data of a high-yielding environment from 1957 to 2017. Potential yield trials showed that, at the most favorable sites, grain yield reached ∼20.46 Mg ha–1. The prolonged growing and grain filling period, mild temperatures in December-January, ample water availability, and favorable soil conditions explain this high-potential yield. Yield progress analysis indicated that average grain yield increased from 2.70 Mg ha–1 in 1959 to 12.90 Mg ha–1 in 2017, with a 128.8 kg ha–1 per-year increase due to favorable soil and climatic conditions. For genetic progress trials, genetic gain in grain yield from 1965 to 2019 was 70.20 kg ha–1 (0.49%) per year, representing around 55% of the yield progress. Results revealed that the genetic gains in grain yield were related to increases in biomass partitioning toward reproductive organs, without significant increases in Shoot DW production. In addition, reducing trends in the NDVI, the fraction of intercepted PAR, the intercepted PAR (form emergence to heading), and the RGB-derived vegetation indices with the year of cultivar release were detected. These decreases could be due to the erectophile leaf habit, which enhanced photosynthetic activity, and thus grain yield increased. Also, senescence of bottom canopy leaves (starting from booting) could be involved by decreasing the ability of spectral and RGB-derived vegetation indices to capture the characteristics of green biomass after the booting stage. Contrary, a positive correlation was detected for intercepted PAR from heading to maturity, which could be due to a stay-green mechanism, supported by the trend of positive correlations of Chlorophyll content with the year of cultivar release.

Assessment of floral characteristics for hybrid wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production in Texas

AbstractHybrid technology is indispensable for increasing the yield potential of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). However, seed production costs and the self‐pollinating nature of wheat are limiting factors that necessitate the redesign of its floral characteristics to achieve high outcrossing ability. This study, therefore, focused on phenotyping the floral characteristics of the two most advanced yield trials of the Texas A&amp;M AgriLife hard red winter wheat breeding pipeline, the Uniform Variety Trial and the Texas Elite Trial. We also genotyped the height reduction genes (Rht‐B1 and Rht‐D1) in the entire set using single nucleotide polymorphism markers, and we found significant genetic variation for the agronomic and floral traits as well as the height reduction markers. The correlation coefficients between anther score and extrusion were positive and significant. Moreover, the high heritability values for the male traits indicate that they could be improved by selection and breeding. Furthermore, the visual anther assessment could be used instead of the time‐consuming anther counting system. If hybrid‐related traits are integrated into the mainstream breeding program, the male parent should be identified earlier in the pipeline because of the negative effects of the Rht genes on anther extrusion. Finally, the female floral traits had lower heritability estimates, and their screening needs to be refined and validated within more controlled environments.

Improving Grain Yield via Promotion of Kernel Weight in High Yielding Winter Wheat Genotypes.

Simple SummaryImproving plant net photosynthetic rates and accelerating water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation play an important role in increasing the carbon sources for wheat kernel growth and yield. The objective of this study was to quantify the relative yield contribution by analyzing the photosynthesis rate of flag leaf, water-soluble carbohydrate content of flag leaf, flag leaf sheath and stem, and other agronomic and physiological traits in 15 wheat cultivars released in Shandong Province, China between 1969 and 2006. Our results suggest that increase of flag leaf photosynthesis and WSC had a positive effect of 0.593 on the TKW, and thus benefit for developing high yielding wheat cultivars.Improving plant net photosynthetic rates and accelerating water-soluble carbohydrate accumulation play an important role in increasing the carbon sources for yield formation of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Understanding and quantify the contribution of these traits to grain yield can provide a pathway towards increasing the yield potential of wheat. The objective of this study was to identify kernel weight gap for improving grain yield in 15 winter wheat genotypes grown in Shandong Province, China. A cluster analysis was conducted to classify the 15 wheat genotypes into high yielding (HY) and low yielding (LY) groups based on their performance in grain yield, harvest index, photosynthetic rate, kernels per square meter, and spikes per square meter from two years of field testing. While the grain yield was significantly higher in the HY group, its thousand kernel weight (TKW) was 8.8% lower than that of the LY group (p < 0.05). A structural equation model revealed that 83% of the total variation in grain yield for the HY group could be mainly explained by TKW, the flag leaf photosynthesis rate at the grain filling stage (Pn75), and flag leaf water-soluble carbohydrate content (WSC) at grain filling stage. Their effect values on yield were 0.579, 0.759, and 0.444, respectively. Our results suggest that increase of flag leaf photosynthesis and WSC could improve the TKW, and thus benefit for developing high yielding wheat cultivars.

Plant breeding increases spring wheat yield potential in Afghanistan

AbstractWheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is an essential food security crop in Afghanistan. To determine the contribution of wheat breeding to increasing productivity, we analyzed data obtained from 192 trials conducted over 11 locations from 2002–2003 to 2015–2016. Using this data, we estimated annual genetic gains for grain yield, days to heading and plant height over the 14‐yr period. We used best linear unbiased estimates to measure genetic gains across CIMMYT Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trials per se and for the top 5 and top 10% performing genotypes relative to checks. Mean realized genetic gain for grain yield was 115 kg ha–1 yr−1, whereas the top 10 genotypes achieved annual yield gains of 123 kg ha–1. The continually replaced local checks also contributed an annual genetic gain for yield of 107 kg ha–1. The associated adaptive traits days to heading and plant height varied in their response over time with the top 10 yielding genotypes having a 1.82 d annual reduction in heading date while plant height increased by 0.77 cm yr−1 for the same set of genotypes. Results show that continual breeding improvements confer yield gains, contributing to increasing Afghan wheat productivity. This has wider relevance for demonstrating the value of continued investment in public sector plant breeding supporting wheat production and food security in Central Asia.

Yield potential of world wheat based on ARIMA model under global warming

As the most important food crop across the world, with continuous increase in world population and steady declining farmlands, wheat has been attracting academic attention for improving its yield or potential in the future particularly under global warming. Therefore, analyzing the yield or potential of wheat at global level relevant to greenhouse gas effect is of great significance to direct future production of wheat in the world. However up to now, there are relatively few reports on potential yield of world wheat projected using ‘time series’ approach like ARIMA (Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Thus in this paper, the crop potential yield of world wheat during 2019 to 2028 is projected using ARIMA model based on the yields from 1961 to 2018. Our results show that during 2019 to 2028, the average yields of world wheat are projected to increase from 3569 to 4257 kg ha-1 while top yields of world wheat from 9852 to 11246 kg ha-1. Annual global mean temperatures are projected to increase from 15.05 to 15.31°C. Global warming exerts positive effect on average yield of world wheat while negative effect on the top yield in 1961 to 2018 and 2028. Our study concluded that for world wheat production in 2019 to 2028, the opportunities for improving production should be mainly dependent on the advantage of highyield countries as the yield is still in low place before the turn-point of S-shaped curve in long-term trend affected partly by greenhouse gas effect.

Weather Factors and Their Influence on the Adaptive Properties of Winter Wheat Varieties in the Western Forest-Steppe of Ukraine

The yield potential of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is formed in changing weather conditions and depends on the proposed agro-technological measures, to which the response of a particular variety is different. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of weather factors on the field germination of soft winter wheat seeds, the growth and development of plants in the autumn and wintering in the zone of the Western Forest-Steppe of Ukraine, by sowing high-quality basic seed, careful soil preparation and the presence of optimum environmental factors. A sufficient level of productive soil moisture, which protects young shoots from possible deficiency after germination and is a long-term source of moisture at the next stages of organogenesis, has a great influence on obtaining friendly and timely shoots. Often overwintering conditions, when plants suffer from low negative temperatures at the beginning and at the end of the winter period, ground ice crust, resumption of vegetation in winter are the causes of freezing, loss, and ultimately a decrease in yield and seed quality. It has been confirmed that an increase in the temperature regime in 244-247°C in the autumn-winter period and the optimal amount of precipitation contribute to sufficient (31.6-34.6 mm) productive soil moisture (0-20 cm), which positively influences the process of germination of soft winter wheat, provides a high percentage of field germination of seeds of varieties (93.8-94.5%), lengthens the autumn development of plants by 3-12 days, which causes 3.5-5.7% higher accumulation of sugar content in the tillering nodes and a high percentage of overwintering (up to 95.5-96.4%). Varieties of the forest-steppe ecological type of soft winter wheat have insignificant phenotypic variability of adaptive traits, therefore, in the production of grain and seed products, it is recommended to give preference to the plant varieties listed in the Register, suitable for distribution in Ukraine for the Forest-Steppe zone, Polissya. The recommendations set out in this scientific work will help agricultural producers of the studied soil and climatic zone to carry out an effective, more ecologically plastic, highly productive variety replacement

Rht24b, an ancient variation of TaGA2ox-A9, reduces plant height without yield penalty in wheat.

Rht-B1b and Rht-D1b, the 'Green Revolution' (GR) genes, greatly improved yield potential of wheat under nitrogen fertilizer application, but reduced coleoptile length, seedling vigor and grain weight. Thus, mining alternative reduced plant height genes without adverse effects is urgently needed. We isolated the causal gene of Rht24 through map-based cloning and characterized its function using transgenic, physiobiochemical and transcriptome assays. We confirmed genetic effects of the dwarfing allele Rht24b with an association analysis and also traced its origin and distribution. Rht24 encodes a gibberellin (GA) 2-oxidase, TaGA2ox-A9. Rht24b conferred higher expression of TaGA2ox-A9 in stems, leading to a reduction of bioactive GA in stems but an elevation in leaves at the jointing stage. Strikingly, Rht24b reduced plant height, but had no yield penalty; it significantly increased nitrogen use efficiency, photosynthetic rate and the expression of related genes. Evolutionary analysis demonstrated that Rht24b first appeared in wild emmer and was detected in more than half of wild emmer and wheat accessions, suggesting that it underwent both natural and artificial selection. These findings uncover an important genetic resource for wheat breeding and also provide clues for dissecting the regulatory mechanisms underlying GA-mediated morphogenesis and yield formation.

Belt Uniform Sowing Pattern Boosts Yield of Different Winter Wheat Cultivars in Southwest China

The relationship between the sowing patterns and yield performance is a valuable topic for food security. In this study, a novel belt uniform (BU) sowing pattern was reported, and a field experiment with four winter wheat cultivars was carried out over three consecutive growing seasons to compare the dry matter accumulation, harvest index (HI), grain yield and yield components under BU and line and dense (LD) sowing patterns [BU sowing with narrow (15 cm) spacing; BU sowing with wide (20 cm) spacing; LD sowing with wide (33.3 cm) row spacing; LD sowing with narrow (16.6 cm) row spacing]. Four cultivars produced a higher mean grain yield (GY), above-ground biomass (AGB) and spike number (SN) per m2 under the BU sowing patterns than the LD sowing patterns in all three growing seasons. However, yield stability under the BU sowing patterns did not increase with the improved grain yield. The HI did not change with sowing patterns, and the contribution of above-ground biomass to grain yield (84%) was more than 5-fold higher than that of HI (16%). Principal component and correlation analyses indicated that the grain yield was positively correlated with the aboveground biomass and SN, while the HI and 1000-grain weight were not correlated with grain yield. We concluded that (1) the novel BU sowing patterns achieved a higher yield potential in winter wheat but did not further improve yield stability; (2) increasing the dry matter accumulation without changing the HI drove improvements in the SN and grain number per spike, thus increasing grain yield.

Optimality-based modelling of climate impacts on global potential wheat yield

Evaluation of potential crop yields is important for global food security assessment because it represents the biophysical ‘ceiling’ determined by variety, climate and ambient CO2. Statistical approaches have limitations when assessing future potential yields, while large differences between results obtained using process-based models reflect uncertainties in model parameterisations. Here we simulate the potential yield of wheat across the present-day wheat-growing areas, using a new global model that couples a parameter-sparse, optimality-based representation of gross primary production (GPP) to empirical functions relating GPP, biomass production and yield. The model reconciles the transparency and parsimony of statistical models with a mechanistic grounding in the standard model of C3 photosynthesis, and seamlessly integrates photosynthetic acclimation and CO2 fertilization effects. The model accurately predicted the CO2 response observed in FACE experiments, and captured the magnitude and spatial pattern of EARTHSTAT ‘attainable yield’ data in 2000 CE better than process-based models in ISIMIP. Global simulations of potential yield during 1981–2016 were analysed in parallel with global historical data on actual yield, in order to test the hypothesis that environmental effects on modelled potential yields would also be shown in observed actual yields. Higher temperatures are thereby shown to have negatively affected (potential and actual) yields over much of the world. Greater solar radiation is associated with higher yields in humid regions, but lower yields in semi-arid regions. Greater precipitation is associated with higher yields in semi-arid regions. The effect of rising CO2 is reflected in increasing actual yield, but trends in actual yield are stronger than the CO2 effect in many regions, presumably because they also include effects of crop breeding and improved management. We present this hybrid modelling approach as a useful addition to the toolkit for assessing global environmental change impacts on the growth and yield of arable crops.