Wheat Supply Research Articles

Effect of the most severe summer-autumn droughts on the yield of winter wheat on different precursors in the arid conditions of the Eastern Caucasus

Relevance. To study regularities of severe droughts influence and to develop measures on decreasing their negative consequences on crop capacity are important tasks of arable farming. Methods. A long-term experiment was laid in the Prikumskaya experimental station in 1969. The research was conducted in the 6-field grain and fallow crop rotation in the years with HC 0,12–0,30 in July – October. The aim of the research was to study the effect of the most severe droughts of the summer-autumn period on the moisture supply, growth, development and yield of winter wheat on background of bare fallow and semi-fallow in the arid zone of Stavropol Territory. Results. The reserves of productive moisture in the 1 m layer of soil in autumn for sowing on background of bare fallow in 4, semi-fallow – in 5 out of 7 years were below the norm, and in 3 years on non-fallow predecessor were completely absent. This leads to a significant or complete delay of seedlings, weak plant development, thinning and formation of a reduced number of productive stems for harvesting, and this indicator of the structure largely determines the value of the crop. By spring, the moisture content on background of fallow in 3 (43%) and semi-fallow in 4 years (57%) was lower than the average annual value. Of the 7 years in 3 severe summer-autumn droughts were combined with varying degrees of aridity in the spring-summer period. Yields of winter wheat averaged 3.71 t/ha on background of bare fallow and 1.85 t/ha on semi-fallow but in some years ranged from 2.74 to 5.68 and from 1.06 to 2.79 t/ha, or by 2.1–2.6 times, respectively. The size of a yield on background of fallow is by 2 times higher, than that on non-fallow; that testifies to expediency of application of fallow and of its stabilizing role in droughty conditions.

USE OF NEURAL NETWORKS FOR PLANNING THE CORRECT SELECTION OF PLANT AND SOIL SAMPLES IN PRECISION AGRICULTURE TECHNOLOGIES

The article is devoted to the study of the use of neural networks to optimize the selection of plant stands in precision agriculture technologies. The study takes into account the complex aspects of sample selection, such as the speed of image acquisition, the effectiveness of assessing the state of mineral nutrition and soil moisture, etc. This data is a necessary component for precision farming technologies and, in particular, crop management. Research was conducted on production fields in 2019-2020 in Boryspil district of Kyiv region. Spectral studies were performed using the Slantrange 3p complex installed on the UAV. Data processing was performed both with the specialized software for spectral data Slantview and with the mathematical package MathCad. The assessment of the nature of the distribution of both individual spectral channels and their combination in the form of vegetation indices turned out to be unprepared for the identification of uneven water supply of areas. The red channel and its derivatives turned out to be the most promising in the direction of identifying the water supply of wheat. The use of neural networks made it possible to identify probable areas with increased water supply on the maps of the distribution of vegetation indices in the field. The duration of identification using neural networks will not interfere with the sampling procedure, so that such a procedure can be effectively implemented in agronomic practices. Therefore, the use of neural networks allows you to automate and increase the accuracy of selection, improving the quality of the analysis of plant stands, subject to compliance with soil sample evaluation technologies. The obtained results indicate the prospects of implementing this approach in modern agriculture.

Wheat Markets and Price Stabilisation in Pakistan: An Analysis of Policy Options

This article provides a quantitative analysis of the effects of Pakistan government domestic wheat procurement, sales, and trade policies on wheat supply, demand, prices, and overall inflation. Analysis of price multipliers indicates that increases in wheat procurement prices (one means of promoting domestic procurement) have relatively small effects on the overall consumer price index. Partial equilibrium analysis of wheat markets suggests that fluctuations in production, rather than market manipulation, are plausible explanations for price increases in recent years. Comparisons of domestic and international prices suggest that promoting private sector imports is one alternative for increasing supply and stabilising market prices, particularly in years of production shortfalls. Overall, this paper concludes that market forces play a dominant role in price determination in Pakistan, and that policies that promote the private sector wheat trade can both increase price stability and reduce fiscal costs.

Wheat Supply Chain in Uttar Pradesh: A Case Study of Sultanpur District

Wheat Supply Chain in Uttar Pradesh: A Case Study of Sultanpur District

Trends and Prospects of Change in Wheat Self-Sufficiency in Egypt

Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world; however, it produces only half of the 20 million tons of wheat that it consumes annually. The population of Egypt is currently growing by 1.94% per year, and projections predict that the demand for wheat will be nearly doubled by 2050. Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters to Egypt and globally, shipping grains from ports in the Black Sea. The ongoing conflict aggravates the already precarious food security situation in Egypt and many other import-dependent countries in Africa and Asia by disrupting supplies and accelerating food price hikes. Wheat is a strategic commodity in Egypt. Its production is a question of political stability. Against this backdrop, the Egyptian government declared gaining wheat self-sufficiency as a strategic aim. This study provides an overview of the degree and trends of cultivated wheat area, yield, production, and wheat self-sufficiency in Egypt between 2000 and 2020, followed by a qualitative analysis determining external pressures and system-immanent drivers that had an impact on wheat self-sufficiency in the past two decades in view of predicting future pathways to achieve wheat self-sufficiency in a sustainable way. The study underlines some critical external pressures such as agricultural policies, (subsidized) production inputs, climate conditions, global wheat supply chains, and system-immanent drivers such as domestic wheat supply prices and yields influencing the area of wheat cultivation and its productivity. There is a significant need to implement more effective and long-term sustainable agricultural policies in order to make wheat production in Egypt (more) attractive and feasible for smallholders again.

Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis

As climate change and energy crises increase, NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilizer supply chains become more volatile. Globally, the Russian attack on Ukraine has caused the cost of gas to rise and fertilizer supplies to decline. This aggression may worsen the energy and wheat resource crisis in global supply chains. As a result of the escalation of hostilities, natural gas, oil, and coal prices have rapidly increased. In the years preceding the conflict, the agricultural sector had already begun to suffer, caused by unprecedented increases in the prices of natural gas and raw materials for the production of fertilizers stemming from Russian manipulation, especially in the gas market. Prior to the growing season, farmers were still unable to afford fertilizer prices. This situation will be exacerbated by the war. We can conclude from our results that European countries and the United States have high wheat production potential. Developed countries have significant nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer resources. Ukraine has a large yield gap, ranging between 4.5 and 7 Mg/ha. Wheat supply crises can be caused by tense geopolitical affairs, including military aggression and economic embargoes. Based on this, we recommend that decision-makers focus on crop quality to increase the country’s own production.

The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security

Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Considering the role of Russia and Ukraine in agricultural input sectors including oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, especially Russia, the trade blockade caused by the conflict will give rise to price increase by 10%–30% and welfare decline by 15–25% for most affected countries. The conflict would put as many as 1.7 billion people in hunger and 276 million people in severe food insecurity. Food shortages, energy shortages and inflation have spread to many countries like dominoes which have fallen into trouble one after another with social unrest day after day. Our analysis also shows that countries including the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, France, Argentina, and Germany would increase their wheat production and exports for the reconstruction of the global wheat supply pattern. The modeled results indicate that the conflict-induced global wheat crisis and food insecurity can be notably alleviated if these countries increase their production by 2%–3% in 2022–2023 and unnecessary trade restrictions are exempted.

Estimates of Food Losses and Wastes at Each Node of the Wheat Value Chain in Morocco: Implications on Food and Energy Security, Natural Resources, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Several research and development efforts have been made to ensure food security in developing countries. Dissemination of improved agricultural technologies was used as the main avenue through which some increases in food supply have been achieved. However, food insecurity remains a major challenge. This paper argues and provides empirical evidence that reducing food loss and waste can be an effective food and energy security, and natural resource, and environmental conservation strategy. Following the life cycle framework, the annual amount of wheat-based food lost or wasted from farm-to-fork in Morocco was estimated at 4 million tons (equivalent to 36% of total supply) valued at US$1.0 billion. Among all nodes, the magnitudes of farm management-related losses, wastage during consumption, and storage losses rank first to third accounting for about 17.4%, 7.92%, and 7.06%, respectively of total wheat supply in the country. Were these losses and wastes entirely prevented, Morocco would have been able to feed 29.3 million more people, or save 1.79 million hectares of land, 2.66 billion m3 of water, and 64.28 million GJ of energy, and prevented the emission from landfills of at least 16.61 million kg of methane annually. Besides the ongoing efforts to disseminate agricultural technologies, the Moroccan government needs to develop short- and medium-term national strategies to reduce food losses and wastage particularly targeting the storage and consumption nodes. Replacing bread subsidy with food vouchers targeting only the needy and creation of public awareness about the magnitudes and consequences of food loss and wastage alone may go long way in reducing them.

Wheat supply logistics in wartime in Ukraine

The year 2022 was marked for the world as the year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. The war caused considerable damage, not only to the Ukrainian economy, but also disrupted global economic relations. The agricultural sector was especially affected as agricultural enterprises cannot transfer their capacity to other, safer regions, like other sector enterprises, to conduct their activities. A significant part of the grain harvest was lost due to the war, so taking into account that Ukraine is one of the main exporters of grain, many countries did not receive the ordered deliveries. Among grains, in terms of value, wheat ranks third after corn and rice. Wheat is used not only for consumption but is also exported as seeds. Obstacles to harvesting, transportation, and export of wheat have become an extremely urgent issue for countries that are very dependent on the supplies of Ukrainian wheat. The purpose of the study is to develop a model of the Ukrainian wheat supply system in war conditions for groups of importing countries in terms of the volume and stability of supplies, to ensure food security. The ABC-XYZ analysis was used while conducting the study. This method is based on the use of statistical data on the volume of Ukrainian wheat supplies to other countries. According to this method, all countries are grouped in terms of their order volume and stability. This approach indicates the countries that are strategically important for Ukraine as a wheat exporter. As the results of the analysis show, at the beginning of the war, the behaviours of the wheat-importing countries changed. If they could previously diversify the wheat supply channels, choosing the most profitable channels for themselves, since 2022, many countries have cancelled supplies of wheat from the Russian Federation and have become more dependent on other producers. In addition, unfavourable weather conditions and the desire of powerful wheat producers to create additional stocks of wheat for their own needs have been added. It was found that such countries as Egypt, Indonesia, Morocco, Yemen, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Libya are most dependent on Ukrainian wheat and have positive previous experiences of cooperation with Ukraine. The presented logistics model of wheat supply can be adapted to new changes, but the ultimate goal of its implementation should be to indicate conditions to ensure global food security.

Needed global wheat stock and crop management in response to the war in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine threatened to block 9% of global wheat exports, driving wheat prices to unprecedented heights. We advocate, that in the short term, compensating for such an export shortage will require a coordinated release of wheat stocks, while if the export block persists, other export countries will need to fill the gap by increasing wheat yields or by expanding wheat cropping areas by 8% in aggregate. We estimate that a production increase would require an extra half a million tons of nitrogen fertilizer, yet fertilizer prices are at record levels, driven by rising energy prices. Year-to-year variability plus more frequent climate change-induced crop failures could additionally reduce exports by another 5 to 7 million tons in any given year, further stressing global markets. Without stabilizing wheat supplies through judicious management of stocks and continuing yield improvements, food and national security are at risk across many nations in the world.

The Influence of Ukraine’s Foreign Grain Trade through Romania on Prices

The objective of the present research was to determine the external influence of the grain trade, i.e., the influence of Ukraine’s grain trade through Romania on price levels recorded at Romania’s borders. The research methods to achieve this objective consisted of quantitative and qualitative analyses of wheat and maize imports and export data from the beginning of 2022 to the present, as well as using the t-stat test to determine the existence of significant price differences, and the linear regression model. The research results confirm that there were differences between the two pre- and post-military conflict periods regarding the volume of imports from Ukraine and the increase in the supply of wheat and maize from Romania, through this trade activity, led to changes in prices.

Improvement of organisation for road transport functioning in a multimodal logistics system for grain delivary from Volgograd region to Iran

Introduction. The paper has developed a new scheme of a multimodal logistics system for grain transportation for export to Iran using links and graphs. It is proposed to consider the functioning of road transport in a multimodal logistics system for grain export from the standpoint of a systematic approach at the micro, meso and macro levels based on the newly introduced concept of transport capacity of the simulated graph. To determine the optimal modes of road transport functioning (with the further aim of increasing its efficiency of functioning) in the logistics links of export grain supplies at the micro level, it is proposed to perform using the ‘Sowing fields – regional barn-floors’ graph, at the meso level – the ‘Regional barn-floors – regional grain storages’ graph, at the macro level – the ‘Regional grain storages – port grain storages’ graph. Graphs modelling, determining the transport capacity of vertices, fixing vertices for barn-floors, regional grain storages and port grain storages make it possible for agro–industrial enterprises to plan the volume of grain exports, to use their acreage rationally considering crop yields while fulfilling an important condition - ensuring food security for the population of the Russian Federation. Road transport planning at the micro level is directly linked to the operation of agricultural enterprises, and at the meso level to grain storages. At the macro level, road transport serves the three largest port grain receiving points of the Volgograd region. Multimodal transportation of grain from a specific farm in the region to the port of Enzeli in Iran has been organized using road transport and VOLGO-BALT 239 river-sea vessel.Materials and methods. The paper uses methods of statistical analysis of winter wheat supplies for export to Iran from the Volgograd region. At the micro level, graphoanalytic methods are used to model the location schemes of filling bunkers when working in a team of one, three or nine combines, indicating their number of appearance on the field in the xOy coordinate plane. The methods of system analysis were used to correctly divide the international multimodal logistics system for the transportation of export grain into micro, meso and macro levels with the definition of the place and role of transport. Methods of solving the linear programming problem are the optimization of the assignment of consumers to suppliers at all levels under consideration.Results. It is revealed that complex international multimodal logistics systems for the delivery of export grain must be considered using a systematic approach. It is proposed to consider the system at the micro, meso and macro levels. At each of the levels, it is necessary to plan the operation of transport based on calculations of the ‘transport capacity’ of the ‘Sowing fields – regional barn-floors’, ‘Regional barn-floors – regional grain storages’, ‘Regional grain storages – port grain storages’ graph nodes. OOO Progress, the agro-enterprise of the Volgograd region, has been given the opportunity to plan its work taking into account new information technologies that ensure higher efficiency of agricultural activities in the cultivation of winter wheat with partial sale for export to Iran.Discussion and conclusions. The improvement of the organisation of road transport functioning in the international multimodal logistics system of grain export supplies cannot exist without the use of precision farming technologies in harvesting and transport processes. The use of the right logistics technologies in road transport and in the organisation of winter wheat cultivation has a great impact on the final cost of grain and on the guaranteed food security of the Russian Federation. Research in this direction is currently relevant.

A predictive model on deoxynivalenol in harvested wheat in China: Revealing the impact of the environment and agronomic practicing

Deoxynivalenol (DON) in wheat is one of the major food safety concerns worldwide. In this study, 70 characteristic precursive factors associated with environment and 6 agronomic practicing factors were explored, using historical data of 479 wheat fields in the Huang-Huai-hai, China. Results showed that DON concentrations influenced by air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and sunshine duration in the period from 17 days before flowering to 10 days before harvest. Rice crop rotation, straw returning, larger density of sowing, and lower latitude planting increased DON risk. Furthermore, an empirical model of DON prediction was established. The classification accuracy of internal and external validation were 87.73% (R2 = 0.62) and 80.21% (R2 = 0.60), respectively. This model is the first large-scale prediction of mycotoxin contamination in grain at harvest in China. It can be used to predict the risk of DON contamination for nearly 14 % of the global wheat supply.

The Grain Market in India and the Creation of the BRICS Grain Union

The article examines the current situation in the wheat market in India and its potential within the global food security dynamic. In particular, it analyzes a number of instruments and programs of national policy in the grain sector: minimum support prices, public procurement, public distribution systems, storage facilities and their management, market regulation, trading mechanisms and platforms. In the aspect of the development of Indian grain trade and infrastructure, the Electronic Platform for National Agriculture Market (eNAM) and food commodities exchanges are considered. The article provides explanation on why India’s ambitious plans announced several years ago to expand wheat exports to the world market can hardly be fully realized in the near future due to such reasons as climate risks, phytosanitary problems and quality controls, lack of storage and logistics infrastructure, as well as the huge social and political importance of wheat supplies in the local market. Through the continuation of the current reforms in an efficient manner, India can resume the position of one of the leading wheat exporters. It is proposed that Russia, India and South Africa (as well as the potential new members – Iran and Argentina) create anew BRICS Grain Union.

Сезонность на российском рынке пшеницы

Based on long-term statistical data, an analysis of the seasonality of demand, supply and prices for wheat in the Russian market was carried out. It was revealed that the volume of supply, the volume of processing, export and demand for wheat are constantly recurring changes. Supply of wheat in June in August, and the occurrence of a case of occurrence of supply over demand. In the following months, the supply changed dramatically until May. Demand for wheat (both domestic and export) is most active in anticipation and in anticipation. Export of the maximum load in August-September, processing — in September-October. At the end of the agricultural season, in anticipation, the demand for wheat, its stocks and exports of minimum indicators. It has been established that demand and most of the wheat season are in the supply phase to each other. The study did not reveal pronounced repetitive fluctuations in wheat prices. It is concluded that it is necessary to take into account seasonal economic use in economic practice and in the sphere of regulation of the grain market.

Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2°C global warming

<h2>Summary</h2> Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat prices will exhibit steeper spikes at 2°C global warming (6.2% increase in the 95^th percentile of global consumer price anomalies) despite a 1.7% increase in production given that CO₂ fertilization benefits crops. Such economic stresses could be abated by trade liberalization with lower prices. However, on the supply side, trade liberalization has contrasting effects: the profitability of farmers in advanced economies can be maintained or even raised, but this will inevitably cause economic losses and inequalities for farmers in less-developed, wheat-importing countries. Agricultural trade liberalization accompanied by protection policies in developing countries would be beneficial for global food security in the threat of climate change.

Optimization of wheat flour production processes in a flour mill industry using linear programming

This study applied linear programming method as an optimization package to analyze the operational processes of wheat flour mill industry, with functional models developed using defined variables constraints of wheat flour x_1, baking flour x_2 and semolina x_3 for objective functions. Furthermore, a proficient operational process of wheat flour mill industry based on raw materials requirements and production cost using linear programming method with MATLAB application to optimize the operational process of wheat flour production plant by maximizing raw material resources and minimizing production cost using a modified milling process flow chart for enhanced products yield from the milling of the whole wheat grains, and a monthly analysis of the available wheat resource for production and machine hours operated during each month. The results after computing the average supply of wheat and available machine hours as variables and modelled into linear programming equations for optimization showed increase in semolina production, reduction in wheat flour production and reduction in production cost of baking flour respectively. In addition, the profit generated showed a significant increase in the months of December at ₦164,850.00 (highest) when the machine hours and wheat available were at its peak. Thus, baking flour was found to be the least profitable among the three products monthly and recommendations suggested a reduction in its production cost to enable profitability in its production

Why can’t the supply chain keep up with organic bakery product demand? Understanding miller, distributor, and baker organic wheat quality perceptions and needs

While the demand for organic wheat products in the U.S. is strong and continues to grow, organic wheat supply is actually decreasing in part due to grower challenges related to declining yields and quality. This study examines the perceptions, requirements, and needs of millers, distributors, and bakers surrounding organic wheat quality and supply. We also use ordered logit models to examine which factors and quality indicators influence organic wheat quality ratings alone and when compared to conventional wheat. Study data were collected in the winter of 2020/2021 through two online surveys. Results show that both bakers and millers/distributors rated wheat quality and consistent quality from suppliers as very important and that they consider protein quality and content as primary indicators of quality. However, they differ in their ratings of organic quality, as bakers perceive organic wheat to be of higher quality than conventional wheat and millers just the opposite. There was also disparity in their importance ratings for other wheat quality indicators. This study provides pertinent findings on the perceptions and needs of organic wheat buyers across the supply chain. Study findings will be especially informative to organic wheat growers, breeders, and researchers seeking to improve organic wheat quality and yields.

Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is disrupting global agricultural commodity markets, creating pressure on wheat supplies and stocks and consequently on food prices. The wider effects are felt around the world due to the dependencies inherent to global trade. But how to assess the vulnerability of countries food security and how to deal with it? To assess for which countries food security is at risk, dependencies along with a set of coping capacity indicators to absorb shocks need to be identified. Addressing vulnerabilities at this scale requires a global food security approach, because the food security of vulnerable countries depends on measure taken by other countries, together with a holistic approach to water, energy and food security. The Russian invasion brings to the fore the need to reassess the socio-economic value of agriculture and open trade, in terms of food security for stability in vulnerable regions.

An economic and viable approach to improve wheat quality in Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, China

Wheat flour products are the main dietary component of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) population in China. However, the high altitude restricts the local wheat quality and quantity, and the applied nitrogen rate is higher than the optimal rate for wheat planting. In this study, we considered whether reducing the amount of nitrogen fertilizer and introducing the superior varieties from the North China Plain (NCP) are viable ways to increase the wheat quality and quantity in the QTP. Three and four winter wheat cultivars from QTP and NCP, respectively, were planted in Lhasa at an altitude of 3 647 m with reduced topdressing nitrogen application at the jointing stage. The wheat from NCP exhibited higher grain hardness index and test weight, and better flour and dough quality. Reducing the topdressing nitrogen fertilizer from 135 to 75 kg N ha−1 at the jointing stage (with the same basal fertilization of 105 kg N ha−1) did not significantly (P<0.05) affect the grain yield, grain quality, flour quality or dough quality in any of the cultivars. In summary, introducing high-quality winter wheat varieties from the NCP to the Lhasa plateau is a viable way to enhance the wheat supply and quality in the QTP. Reducing a certain amount of the nitrogen fertilizer is an economic and feasible approach for the QTP region.