Global Wheat Production and Threats to Supply Chains in a Volatile Climate Change and Energy Crisis

Abstract

As climate change and energy crises increase, NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium) fertilizer supply chains become more volatile. Globally, the Russian attack on Ukraine has caused the cost of gas to rise and fertilizer supplies to decline. This aggression may worsen the energy and wheat resource crisis in global supply chains. As a result of the escalation of hostilities, natural gas, oil, and coal prices have rapidly increased. In the years preceding the conflict, the agricultural sector had already begun to suffer, caused by unprecedented increases in the prices of natural gas and raw materials for the production of fertilizers stemming from Russian manipulation, especially in the gas market. Prior to the growing season, farmers were still unable to afford fertilizer prices. This situation will be exacerbated by the war. We can conclude from our results that European countries and the United States have high wheat production potential. Developed countries have significant nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer resources. Ukraine has a large yield gap, ranging between 4.5 and 7 Mg/ha. Wheat supply crises can be caused by tense geopolitical affairs, including military aggression and economic embargoes. Based on this, we recommend that decision-makers focus on crop quality to increase the country’s own production.