Western Tropical Indian Ocean Research Articles

Moderate Indian Ocean Dipole Dominates Spring Fire Weather Conditions in Southern Australia

Abstract Patterns of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian ocean (WTIO) to by the eastern tropical Indian ocean (ETIO). How the different types of the IOD variability patterns affect Australian fires differently is unknown, nor is it certain how the impacts may change under greenhouse warming. Here, we find that the moderate IOD, dominated by WTIO sea surface temperature (SST) variability, plays a primary role in affecting southern Australian fire weather conditions during austral spring. During a positive moderate IOD, broad-scaled warm SST anomalies in WTIO force an atmospheric stationary Rossby wave with a high-pressure anomaly over southern Australia. This elevated pressure and associated anomalous atmospheric conditions provide suitable fire weather with hot, dry, and windy conditions, raising fire risks in southern Australia. Such impact is distinctively different from that strong IOD-induced. As predicted by climate models, decreased moderate IOD variability in the future will result in weakened Australian fire weather responses.

Weakened western Indian Ocean dominance on Antarctic sea ice variability in a changing climate.

Patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exhibit strong diversity, ranging from being dominated by the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) to the eastern tropical Indian Ocean (ETIO). Whether and how the different types of IOD variability patterns affect the variability of Antarctic sea ice is not known, nor is how the impact may change in a warming climate. Here, we find that the leading mode of austral spring Antarctic sea ice variability is dominated by WTIO SST variability rather than ETIO SST or El Niño-Southern Oscillation. WTIO warm SST anomalies excite a poleward-propagating Rossby wave, inducing a tri-polar anomaly pattern characterized by a decrease in sea ice near the Amundsen Sea but an increase in regions on both sides. Such impact has been weakening in the two decades post-2000, accompanied by weakened WTIO SST variability. Under greenhouse warming, climate models project a decrease in WTIO SST variability, suggesting that the reduced impact on Antarctic sea ice from the IOD will likely to continue, facilitating a fast decline of Antarctic sea ice.

Existence of typical winter atmospheric circulation patterns leading to high PM2.5 concentration days in East Asia

Understanding the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for severe air pollution events in East Asia is important because East Asia is one of the most polluted regions in the world, particularly during the boreal winter (December-January-February). Here, by conducting GEOS-Chem simulation with fixed anthropogenic emission sources, we found that there exist three typical atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to leading to high concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in East Asia. These atmospheric circulation patterns are characterized by weakened horizontal winds, which allows PM2.5 to accumulate, and by enhanced relative humidity, which can favor secondary formation of PM2.5. The occurrence of these atmospheric circulation patterns is associated with increased sea ice cover over the Barents Sea and heavy precipitation over the tropical western Indian Ocean. The existence of these atmospheric circulation patterns among typical atmospheric circulation patterns indicates high PM2.5 days in East Asia are unavoidable given current level of anthropogenic emissions in the region. This conclusion indicates that sustained efforts to reduce anthropogenic emission sources in East Asia should be warranted to avoid high PM2.5 days.

The Vetigastropoda (Mollusca) of Walters Shoal, with descriptions of two new genera and thirty new species

The vetigastropod material collected on Walters Shoal during Cruise MD208 of the Tropical Deep-Sea Benthos programme is documented. In total, 50 species were obtained, 30 of which are new and apparently endemic to the seamount. Of the other 20 species, eight are regionally endemic to the south-western Indian Ocean, 11 are more widely distributed in the Indo-West Pacific and one is possibly of deep-water Atlantic origin. The primary affinities of the fauna are with warm temperate South Africa and the tropical western Indian Ocean, but one species is potentially a seamount endemic of southern affinity. A new pseudococculinid genus living on decomposing bird feathers is described, a biogenic substrate association previously unknown in the Mollusca. The following new genera are described: Imbricoscelis gen. nov. and Pterodacna gen. nov. The following new species are described: Akritogyra crenulata sp. nov., Bathymophila williamsae sp. nov., Benthobrookula araneum sp. nov., Be. galeneae sp. nov., Be. laticostata sp. nov., Be. scalaroides sp. nov., Be. semisculpta sp. nov., Bruceina areneformis sp. nov., Calliostoma pantopunctatum sp. nov., Cantrainea herosae sp. nov., Carinastele achrosta sp. nov., Cornisepta marshalli sp. nov., Emarginula lentiginosa sp. nov., E. nodulicostata sp. nov., E. retrogyra sp. nov., E. salebrosa sp. nov., Fluxinella dufresneae sp. nov., Gibbula roseosticta sp. nov., Hadroconus scobina sp. nov., Kaiparathina monticola sp. nov., Lissotesta wareni sp. nov., Microcollonia miniata sp. nov., Mikro crassus sp. nov., Parviturbo cicatricosus sp. nov., Phragmomphalina candida sp. nov., Pterodacna boucheti gen. et sp. nov., Solariella asaphea sp. nov., Spinicalliotropis lepidota sp. nov., Stomatella multilirata sp. nov. and Trenchia mcleani sp. nov. The following new combinations are proposed: Brookula coronis Barnard, 1963 is transferred to Imbricoscelis gen. nov., Cantharidus nolfi Poppe, Tagaro & H. Dekker, 2006 is transferred to Kaiparathina Laws, 1941 and Solariella incisura Melvill, 1909 is transferred to Phragmomphalina Herbert & Williams, 2020. The following new synonyms are proposed: Carinastele wareni Vilvens, 2014 is a synonym of Bruceina cognata (Marshall, 1988); Fluxinella stellaris Bozzetti, 2008 is a synonym of Agagus stellamaris Herbert, 1991.

Origins of Underestimated Indian Ocean Dipole Skewness in CMIP5/6 Models

Abstract The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), characterized by warming (cooling) in western TIO and cooling (warming) in eastern TIO during its positive (negative) phase. Observed IOD events exhibit distinct amplitude asymmetry in relation to negative nonlinear dynamic heating. Nearly all models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulate a less-skewed IOD than observed, but 6 out of 20 CMIP6 models can reproduce realistic high skewness. Analysis of less-skewed models indicates that the positive IOD-like biases in the mean state, which can be traced back to their weaker simulations of the preceding Indian summer monsoon, reduce the convective response to positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the western TIO, resulting in a weaker zonal wind response and weaker nonlinear zonal advection during positive IOD events. Besides, ocean stratification in the eastern TIO influences the IOD skewness: stronger stratification leads to larger mixed-layer temperature response to thermocline changes, contributing to larger anomalous vertical temperature gradient, larger nonlinear vertical advection, and thus stronger positive IOD skewness. Our findings underscore the importance of reducing Indian summer monsoon biases and eastern TIO stratification biases, for properly representing the IOD in Earth system models.

Understanding Biases in Indian Ocean Seasonal SST in CMIP6 Models

AbstractThe latest generation of climate models continue to exhibit biases in their representation of climatological sea surface temperature (SST), affecting their ability to simulate climate variability including the Indian Ocean Dipole which is typically too strong. Here, we analyze the surface layer heat budget of the Indian Ocean to diagnose the processes leading to biases in climatological SST biases in 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, in comparison to a suite of observational and reanalysis products. In the western tropical Indian Ocean, we find that weaker than observed winds reduce the strength of surface currents leading to warm SST bias. In the south‐eastern tropical Indian Ocean, overly strong southeasterly winds are associated with overestimated coastal upwelling that increases cooling across CMIP6 models. In the Arabian Sea, overly strong surface winds increase latent heat loss and leads to cool SST biases. We also analyze other regions like the Bay of Bengal, where a persistent cool bias cannot be explained by seasonal heat budgets, and southern Indian Ocean, where overly strong surface winds are responsible for cool SST biases. These biases in surface processes are supported by intermodel relationships between relevant variables, thus explaining differences in simulating the climatological SSTs across the model ensemble. Our analysis suggests that biases in atmospheric processes in particular surface winds are a primary cause of biases in Indian Ocean SST. Reducing these biases would improve the simulation of climate variability in the Indian Ocean toward more reliable climate projections and predictions.

Upside-down swimming: in situ observations of inverted orientation in Gigantactis, with a new depth record for the Ceratioidei.

This note reports on eight observations of inverted swimming behavior by species of ceratioid whipnose anglerfishes in the genus Gigantactis, from the Caribbean, tropical east Atlantic, tropical western Indian Ocean, the north-east and north-west Pacific and south-west Pacific. It covers four putative species and strongly suggests that this is the normal behavior for the genus. A possible reason is briefly discussed. In addition, a new depth record of 5866 m for the ceratioid anglerfish is recorded.

A strong high-temperature event in late-spring 2023 in Yunnan province, Southwest China: Characteristics and possible causes

In April–May 2023, Yunnan province of Southwest China experienced a strong high-temperature event with relatively large return period and small occurrence probability, causing adverse impacts on the regional development. The possible causes for the 2023 high-temperature event are mainly involved with an upper-level high-pressure system induced by a Rossby wave train and the precipitation shortage associated with a lower-level anticyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal. On the one hand, the atmospheric Rossby wave train is attributed to the decreased snow depth in the North America. On the other hand, the lower-level anticyclone over the Bay of Bengal may be caused by the warming SSTs in the tropical western Indian ocean and in the tropical eastern Pacific via the excited Matsuno-Gill response and the atmospheric signals of Southern Oscillation, respectively. The mechanisms are validated by the pacemaker experiments run with CESM1 climate model. These three factors that cause the 2023 high-temperature event are highly correlated to the surface temperature anomalies in Yunnan. Hence, a physical-based multiple regression model with the leave-five-out cross validation can be constructed to perform a skilful seasonal prediction.

Predictability of Extremely Pluvial Winters Over the Yangtze–Huai River Basin in China

AbstractIn the 2018–2019 winter, an unprecedented pluvial event occurred in the Yangtze‐Huai River Basin (YHRB), which is one of the most developed areas in China. This was a record over the past 40 years. Other notable events during this period were the events of the 2002–2003, 1997–1998, and 1989–1990 winters. This study aims to examine the ability of the Scale Interaction Experiment‐Frontier (SINTEX‐F) to predict these extremely pluvial winters and its predictability source. Extreme precipitation events in the 2018–2019 and 1997–1998 winters were reasonably well predicted 1 month earlier by the ensemble seasonal prediction system from deterministic and probabilistic perspectives. In contrast, the predictions of extremely pluvial winters in 2002–2003 and 1989–1990 were less skillful in some parts of the YHRB. The analysis of co‐variability of inter‐member anomalies suggested that the SST anomalies in the tropical western Indian Ocean (IO) and the tropical Pacific Ocean were responsible for the predictions of the 2018–2019 and 1997–1998 winters through increased low‐level moisture convergences in the YHRB as well as wave trains along the upper westerly jet. Limited performance in predicting the 2002–2003 and 1989–1990 events might be due to less accurate prediction of low‐level circulation around the YHRB associated with the SST anomalies in the tropical eastern IO, western IO, and the Pacific, respectively. Besides, atmospheric internal variability as well as model biases may also limit the deterministic prediction skills.

Sensitivity simulation of sea surface temperature variability in coastal waters off East Africa in relation to the Indian Ocean Dipole

East African coastal waters in the tropical western Indian Ocean experience strong seasonality which varies yearly, leading to the establishment of a prominent interannual Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This has a significant influence on regional and global socio-economic, climatic and human development. Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in these waters and its association with ocean–atmosphere feedbacks and internal subsurface ocean dynamics in relation to the IOD is the subject of this study. The research used reference simulation accompanied with sensitivity simulations with forcings from higher frequency variabilities against climatological signals of ocean–atmosphere or internal subsurface ocean dynamics from 1980 to 2007. Wind forcing with higher-frequency variabilities was applied in all simulations. Cooling and warming during pure and positive IOD events leading El Niño events in the region is caused by a combination of both surface heat fluxes associated with ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, and internal subsurface ocean dynamics, from July and peaking in August and October, respectively. Such processes also dominate the warming (cooling) in the region during pure El Niño (La Niña) events from July to December (July to October) where the SST patterns extend southwards. The warmest (coolest) SST anomalies during positive (negative) IOD events co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) events stay longer than other events, being characterised by bimodal peaking in August and December. Such SST patterns are significantly forced with ocean–atmosphere feedbacks that might be associated with Walker circulation driving links between the Indian and Pacific oceans; however, the peaking in August might be enhanced by small ocean dynamics off the Somali coast, probably owing to the existing upwelling systems during these conditions.

Assessment of Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Based on Buoy Observations over the Tropical Western Indian Ocean in 2019

Assessment of Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Based on Buoy Observations over the Tropical Western Indian Ocean in 2019

Main drivers of Indian Ocean Dipole asymmetry revealed by a simple IOD model

Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon (IOD) refers to a dominant zonal contrast pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on interannual time scales. Its positive phase, characterized by anomalously warm western TIO and anomalously cold southeastern TIO, is usually stronger than its negative phase, namely a positively skewed IOD. Here, we investigate causes for the IOD asymmetry using a prototype IOD model, of which physical processes include both linear and nonlinear feedback processes, El Nino’s asymmetric impact, and a state-dependent noise. Parameters for the model were empirically obtained using various reanalysis SST data sets. The results reveal that the leading cause of IOD asymmetry without accounting seasonality is a local nonlinear process, and secondly the state-dependent noise, the direct effect by the positively skewed ENSO and its nonlinear teleconnection; the latter two have almost equal contribution. However, the contributions by each process are season dependent. For boreal summer, both local nonlinear feedback process and the state-dependent noise are major drivers of IOD asymmetry with negligible contribution from ENSO. The ENSO impacts become important in boreal fall, along with the other two processes.

Can Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth Influence the Interannual Association between Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons?

Abstract This study finds that the observed decrease in winter–spring Tibetan Plateau snow depth since 2000 has played an important role in weakening the correlation between rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Tibetan Plateau snow depth modulates convective activity through changes in the South Asian high. Increased Tibetan Plateau snow depth promotes basinwide tropical Indian Ocean cooling in spring through a Gill-type response. In the following seasons, downward latent heat flux anomalies associated with a weaker monsoon circulation contributes to warm SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean, thus favoring a positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole. This evolution of tropical Indian Ocean SSTs associated with anomalously high Tibetan Plateau snow depth potentially weakens the relationship between rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone frequency and spring tropical Indian Ocean SSTs. When the effect of Tibetan Plateau snow depth is removed via partial correlation analysis, we find a significant relationship between spring tropical Indian Ocean SSTs and rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones as well as corresponding large-scale environmental factors. The results of this study enhance understanding of changes in tropical cyclone intensity and have implications for seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone intensity over the western North Pacific basin. This study also emphasizes the importance of Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in atmosphere–ocean coupling.

Connection between the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and Temperature Anomaly across West Antarctic

West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula have experienced dramatic warming in austral spring since the 1970s. Using observations and the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4), this study explores the physical mechanism by which the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature anomaly mode (PIM) affects the dipolar surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies across the West Antarctic in austral spring. The positive phase of the PIM, characterized by positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean and negative SSTAs in the Maritime Continent, can generate two branches of stationary Rossby wave trains propagating from the tropical central Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean to the West Antarctic, with an anticyclonic anomaly appearing over the Amundsen Sea. The northerlies advect warmer air to the Ross–Amundsen Seas, but southerlies advect colder air to the Antarctic Peninsula–Weddell Sea, resulting in the dipole of SAT anomalies over the West Antarctic. In this process, the role of tropical central-eastern Pacific SSTAs dominate, and it is amplified by the SSTAs around the Maritime Continent. The SSTAs in the western Indian Ocean combined with the SSTAs over the Maritime Continent further contribute to the western pole of the SAT. Only simulation that includes a prescribed PIM forcing can exactly reproduce the observations of the dipolar SAT response across the West Antarctic, indicating the need to treat the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans as a unified whole.

Impact of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean sea surface height: An assessment from CMIP6 models

AbstractThis study examined the sea level (SL) changes on the interdecadal timescale in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) in response to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The analysis suggests that the interdecadal sea level pattern variation in the Thermocline Ridge of the Indian Ocean (TRIO) area coincides with the IPO phases and is mainly caused by fluctuations of surface forcing over the TIO. Changes in tropical wind stress curl (WSC) mainly induce the SL variability on the interdecadal timescale associated with IPO in the TRIO region in both observations and models. The stochastic wind forcing and its interaction with the ocean's internal variability produce significant interdecadal SL fluctuation in the southeast Indian Ocean. We evaluated the ability of 20 CMIP6 models to capture interdecadal variations in sea level teleconnections. We found that about 75% of models reproduce decadal fluctuations related to IPO pretty well. The interdecadal variations of the SL in the western TIO emerge primarily in response to westward propagating downwelling Rossby waves induced by the WSC in the central‐south TIO in MMM, and models as in observations. Pacific IPO‐related anomalies primarily spread through the oceanic pathways of the Maritime Continent in the eastern Indian Ocean. Further, the IPO induces changes in the western Indian Ocean WSC through atmospheric pathways, which in turn causes Rossby waves to move westward, affecting the southwest Indian SL. Almost all the models and MMM show interdecadal SL variations in TIO associated with IPO. This study is beneficial as interdecadal prediction research on SL has a significant societal need.

Application of gene expression programming for seasonal rainfall forecasting in Western Australia using potential climate indices

AbstractThis study presents the development of rainfall forecast models using potential climate indices for the Kimberley region of Western Australia, using 100 years of rainfall and climate indices data for four rainfall stations. Three different modeling techniques: multiple linear regression (MLR), autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARIMAX), and gene-expression programming (GEP) were applied to develop prediction models. Preliminary analysis suggests that Western Tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have significant impacts on summer rainfall generation for the region. Developed models’ performances were evaluated using Pearson correlation coefficient ($$r$$ r ), root mean square error ($$RMSE$$ RMSE ), mean absolute error $$(MAE)$$ ( M A E ) , Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency $$(NSE)$$ ( N S E ) , and refined Willmot index of agreement ($${d}_{r}$$ d r ). It is found that the GEP model exclusively outperforms the other two alternatives. In the calibration period, the GEP model resulted in a Pearson correlation coefficient (r) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.85, which are significantly higher than that achieved from MLR (0.32 to 0.44) and ARIMAX (0.53 to 0.83) models, while for the validation period, the correlation values for the models ranged from 0.74 to 0.87 for GEP, 0.35 to 0.51 for MLR and 0.59 to 0.77 for ARIMAX models. Considering other statistical error statistics it can be concluded that the GEP model is the best representative seasonal rainfall forecasting model for the region.

Distribution and physical–biological controls of dimethylsulfide in the western tropical Indian Ocean during winter monsoon

New field observation on distribution, turnover, and sea–air flux of three dimethylated sulfur compounds (dimethylsulfide (DMS), dimethylsulfoniopropionate, and dimethylsulfoxide) in the western tropical Indian Ocean (WTIO; 4°N–10°S, 61°–65°E) were conducted under the major Global Change and Air–Sea Interaction Program during the 2021/2022 Northeast Monsoon (December 21, 2021 to January 11, 2022). Significantly high surface concentrations of DMS were identified in the region of the Seychelles–Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR; 5°–10°S). This occurred because the shallow thermocline/nitracline and associated upwelling fueled biological production of DMS in the subsurface, which was brought to the surface through vertical mixing. The calculated sea–air DMS flux was also significantly strong in the SCTR region during the Northeast Monsoon owing to combination of high wind speed and high surface concentration of DMS. This finding is similar to results obtained previously during the Southwest Monsoon, suggesting that the SCTR region is an area of active DMS emission during both the Northeast Monsoon and the Southwest Monsoon. Microbial consumption was the dominant pathway of DMS removal, accounting for 74.4% of the total, whereas the processes of photolysis (17.7%) and ventilation (7.9%) were less important. Future work should be undertaken in the WTIO to establish how DMS emission is linked to aerosol properties and climate change.

Simulation of spatiotemporal interannual variability of oceanic subsurface temperature off East Africa

The oceanic subsurface variability off East Africa in the tropical western Indian Ocean plays a crucial role in ocean dynamics and living resources as well as weather and climate variability. A regional ocean model is applied to understand the oceanic subsurface interannual variability off East Africa. The region with the highest sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the offshore region lies adjacent to strong subsurface temperature variations located between 30 and 130 m corresponding with strong variations in the thermocline depth. The weakest SST variations in the Tanzanian shelf waters lie over the subsurface waters with the smallest temperature variations in the upper 200 m with weak variations in the thermocline depth. Such signals are associated with induced forcings from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in both regions with different intensity and peaking times. The IOD-induced forcings are weaker, evolving in October and November-December in the region with the weakest and strongest SST variations, respectively. However, relatively stronger ENSO-induced forcings occur in both regions with stronger signals in the region with the strongest SST variations throughout the years except in August, and it peaks in January. The ENSO-induced forcings occur in January to May peaking in March and April in the region with the weakest SST. Consequently, anomalous Rossby waves as well as local Ekman downwelling and upwelling associated with both large-scale modes occur in the region leading to the subsurface temperature variations.

Diversity of the genus Avrainvillea (Dichotomosiphonaceae, Chlorophyta): new insights and eight new species

ABSTRACT Avrainvillea is a green macroalgal genus of the family Dichotomosiphonaceae (order Bryopsidales). Many species have been morphologically described, but few studies have addressed the genetic diversity of this genus. Based on a rich collection of specimens from the tropical Western Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Oceans, we aimed to (1) reassess Avrainvillea species diversity through species delimitation analyses, (2) update their distribution ranges, (3) reconstruct the species phylogenetic relationships, based on a concatenated multilocus matrix (tufA, rbcL and 18S rDNA) and (4) revise their taxonomy and describe new species where necessary. Our species delimitation approach highlighted 23 secondary species hypotheses in our collection, including nine known and currently accepted species, four species complexes (A. amadelpha, A. lacerata, A. erecta-obscura and A. mazei-nigricans), and eight new species for which we provide descriptions: A. laciniata (Papua New Guinea), A. minima and A. pyrochroma (Madagascar), A. mollis and A. kanakiensis (New Caledonia), A. pavonina (Fiji), A. spongiosa (Pacific) and A. corticata (Indo-Pacific). We also propose the resurrection of A. gracillima Børgesen, the reinstatement of Avrainvillea lacerata var. robustior A.Gepp & E.S.Gepp, and the synonymy of A. rotumensis A.D.R.N’Yeurt, D.S.Littler & Littler with A. pacifica A.Gepp & E.S.Gepp. We complemented the taxonomic work by providing a contemporary dichotomous key for morphological identification of all extant species. Our multilocus phylogeny included 25 species of Dichotomosiphonaceae and recovered Avrainvillea as a polyphyletic group, divided into three distinct clades, with Cladocephalus luteofuscus positioned within the group. The species determined using the species delimitation approach were all monophyletic and 19 of them were highly supported. For the first time, this study also provided genetic sequences for A. asarifolia, A. clavatiramea, A. digitata, A. elliottii, A. fulva, A. gracillima, A. geppiorum, A. pacifica and A. obscura. HIGHLIGHTS • Avrainvillea is not monophyletic. • Reassessment of Avrainvillea species diversity delimited 23 secondary species hypotheses. • Eight new species of Avrainvillea were discovered in the Indo-Pacific.

Asymmetric response of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall in a carbon dioxide removal scenario

The reversibility of South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) precipitation under the CO2 removal scenario is critical for climate mitigation and adaptation. In the idealized CO2 ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, SASM precipitation is largely reversible while exhibiting strong asymmetry: it may overshoot the unperturbed level when CO2 recovers. Such asymmetric response is mainly due to the enhanced El Niño-like and Indian Ocean dipole-like warming during the ramp-down period. The uneven sea surface warming weakens Walker circulation, with anomalous sinking over the SASM region. Meanwhile, the warming also affects the rainfall over the Maritime Continent and tropical western Indian Ocean. The suppressed rainfall over the Maritime Continent triggers the equatorial Rossby wave, which weakens the ascent over the SASM region; the increased rainfall over the tropical western Indian Ocean excites the equatorial Kelvin wave, which reduces moisture transport. Additionally, tropic-wide warming reduces the land-sea thermal contrast and weakens monsoonal circulation. Consequently, the combined effects of the weakened ascent and moisture transport lead to the overshooting of SASM rainfall. Our results suggest that symmetric CO2 removal, although unlikely in the foreseeable future, may result in a risk of local drought over the SASM region.